Lessons learned from NFL Week 10

November 17, 2021 05:58 PM
vontobel_nfl

One exercise that has always been useful to me in betting has been evaluating how the market perceives teams, then jumping on teams that are undervalued and fading teams that are overvalued. If a bettor can find a team that is on either side of that spectrum, there is a ton of value to be found, as the betting market tends to be slow in adjusting its ratings. This week let’s look at two hot teams, Tennessee and New England, which are at the peak of their ratings after being undervalued by the betting market. All good things must come to an end, and that seems to be the case for both of these teams’ betting value.

Patriots At Their Peak

It has been quite the run for the Patriots over the last month. Since falling to Tampa Bay in Week 4, New England is 5-1 SU/4-2 ATS and on a 4-0 SU and ATS run heading into its meeting with Atlanta on Thursday night. Over the four-game winning streak, the Patriots have outscored their opponents 150-50, and their last two opponents, the Panthers and Browns, have combined for 13 points. Sunday marked the fifth consecutive week in which I have bet on New England myself, but it is now time to jump off the train as the market has finally caught on to how good this team is.

The lookahead line posted last week by the Westgate Superbook for Patriots-Falcons had New England -4, but as of Tuesday the Patriots were up to -7 with altered juice on the underdog. In a lot of my work on VSiN I talk about the betting market adjusting, and this another example of that. Did New England get three points better, or Atlanta three points worse, after the results of the previous weekend? Of course not, but oddsmakers realize there will be support for the Patriots in a standalone spot, and an overcorrection is made on the line. I wrote last week of the market’s overcorrection on San Francisco’s struggles, and look what the 49ers did Monday night. New England is a very solid team that has playoff aspirations, but if you’re looking to play the Pats now that they have covered four straight, you’re buying at a market high, something you cannot do in betting the NFL.

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