KEEP IT SIMPLE AND TAKE STOCK IN THIS HANDICAPPING ADVICE

By MICHAEL LOMBARDI  () 

What do Patriots head coach Bill Belichick and Berkshire Hathaway chairman Warren Buffett have in common besides being ultra-successful in their chosen fields?

They both have a similar simple strategy they always

follow whether it’s relating to investing or on the football field which then helps make smart choices. Even though they work in different industries, both jobs require assessing talent, evaluating the value, predicting outcomes and understanding trends. Both men have gone against the grain, have been able to zig when everyone else zags, and because of their simple strategies they have soundly defeated the competition. And you can do the same thing when it comes to betting since wagering on teams is no different than investing in stocks.

But before you can win, you must set some simple rules as both Belichick and Buffet have done. No one is going to pick every game correctly, but

if you follow some guidelines, your chances of winning will increase and as Brent always says: “Cashing tickets is what it’s all about.”

Here would be my advice to follow:

  • When it comes to college betting, don’t attempt to know all the teams. Pick two or three conferences to spend time studying those teams and find hidden values. Don’t move around from conference to conference. Pick a few and get to know them exceptionally well. Invest in what you know…and nothing more.

  • Use the month of September to watch the Power Five teams and don’t fall for the hype.

  • Force the great teams to prove they are talented on the field, not just on paper.

  • Before making any bet, always ask the question: Why might this bet fail? Invert your decision and force yourself to defend your wager. Belichick tells the team all the time, we must avoid losing before we can win. Reverse engineer your work.

  • NEVER NEVER NEVER bet with your heart and always leave emotion out of all decisions.

  • It’s far better to buy a fantastic company at a fair price than an honest company at an incredible price.” – Warren Buffett. And this theory applies to football teams. Understand the difference between good and great and know when a team has a great moment, but cannot have a great season.

  • Most news is noise, not news. When spending time researching, focus on the numbers of each team and the injuries, ignore the false bravado coming from the locker rooms. Focus on the important stuff, don’t let the media and noise confuse you; Belichick never gets distracted.

  • The stock market is littered with people who claim to know the price of everything but don’t understand the value. The value of a team always lies with the coach, the quarterback and a team’s ability to close out games. Don’t ever go against coaches and quarterbacks. Just because a team is favored, don’t assume the value is correct.

  • Find variances in the market. Find hidden gems like Army last year and keep riding them all season. Don’t run away from a good thing.

  • Spend time studying. Work hard to make money and as Buffett and Belichick always claim, nothing is ever easy.

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