Jonathan Von Tobel: Ball doesn't make sense at No. 1 unless . . .

November 17, 2020 05:31 PM

Jonathan Von Tobel sizes up the odds for the first overall pick and draft positions for some of the top players ahead of tonight's NBA draft.

First Overall Pick

LaMelo Ball (-115)

Moved last week amid rumors that Detroit (7th) was moving up to select him. What does that package look like? Worth the move? However, deal has yet to be made. How is he a fit with Minnesota? Traded for D’Angelo Russell to run point. Anthony Edwards is the best fit from a roster standpoint.

Anthony Edwards (-106)

The odds have started to shift back in his favor in the last 24 hours. He is the perfect fit for Minnesota, should they hold on to the pick. They have Russell, no need for Ball. They have Karl Anthony-Towns, not a pressing need for Wiseman.

James Wiseman (+ 900)

The ever-growing odds on Wiseman to go No. 1 represent the true potential for him to go with the top pick. He is not a fit for Minnesota, and no team is trading multiple assets to draft a center.

Player Draft Position

LaMelo Ball: 2.5 Over (190) | Under (-240)

Betting this under means Ball will either go to Minnesota (No. 1) or Golden State (No. 2). Ball reportedly had a fantastic private workout for Golden State either early this week, late last week.

However, Wiseman has been heavily tied to Golden State for a while. He fits a need as well. Marquise Chriss is their starting center, and Wiseman has much more upside.

So, if he doesn’t go No. 1 and has not been linked to the Warriors at No. 2 there seems to be some good value on Over 2.5 ( 190) as he will likely go No. 3 (Charlotte).

James Wiseman: 2.5 Over (-110) | Under (-110)

Betting this under would mean either Minnesota (No. 1) or Golden State (No. 2). Golden State has been the team heavily linked to Wiseman throughout this entire process. He’s also the odds-on favorite to go with the 2nd overall pick, according to DK. The discount is on this prop. Don’t lay -113 and tie yourself to a specific outcome. Bet under 2.5.

Anthony Edwards: 1.5 Over (-115) | Under (-106)

This was a small plus-price just a day ago, signaling the momentum back in Edwards direction to go No. 1. While you’re still laying a price, two weeks ago you were laying nearly two dollars. Still some value in a small dog price of (-106) in my opinion.

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