Italian Open 2023: Tennis best bets for Pavlyuchenkova vs. Errani, Fognini vs. Murray - Wednesday, May 10th

By Zachary Cohen  ( 

May 9, 2023 02:20 PM

Tennis best bets for the Italian Open - Wednesday, May 10th

The Italian Open, also known as Internazionali BNL d'Italia, is a 1000-level clay-court tournament for both the men and the women. This is one of the most exciting tournaments of the entire year, and we'll have best bets for it on a daily basis. With that in mind, keep reading for our tennis best bets for Wednesday, May 10th. We also have some bonus futures for you on the men's side. Also, make sure you actively check out our Pro Picks page, as we have been posting plays there regularly throughout the year. We ended up having a very profitable two weeks in Madrid, with a lot of the winners being posted to that page. We're hoping to keep it up in the last big event before the French Open. 

MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova vs. Sara Errani

Pavlyuchenkova hasn’t played all that well since returning from a significant injury, but she’s going to feel good about her chances against Errani. The Russian is 5-2 in seven career meetings with Errani, and she has won each of their last three matches — with one of them coming in 2021. Also, while Pavlyuchenkova isn’t at her healthiest right now, Errani is no spring chicken. At 36 years old, the Italian’s best days are behind her.

This crowd is going to actively be cheering Errani on in this match, but it’s just hard to see that making much of a difference. Pavlyuchenkova just has a significant advantage in the power department, which should allow her to hit winners through these slow courts. And the slower courts will also give her some extra time to track down balls, which she needs at this stage in her recovery. Pavlyuchenkova also has the better serve between these two, making it an easy decision to back her to cover this small game spread.

Bet: Pavlyuchenkova -2.5 Games (-120) 

Fabio Fognini vs. Andy Murray

Murray hasn’t had a great clay-court season at the ATP level, but he went to France and won a Challenger last week. That allowed him to get used to these conditions and really find some form, and he actually earned wins over some solid players at that tournament. Murray beat Gael Monfils in the first round of that event, and he later scored victories over Luca van Assche and Tommy Paul — who he beat 2-6, 6-1, 6-2 in the final. Now, Murray is going to feel a lot better about his chances in Rome, but he does have a difficult opening-round opponent.

Fognini’s 2023 season has been a downright disaster, and the Italian is just 2-6 in his last eight matches. However, Fognini openly has a distaste for Murray, so he should show up to play in this one. Fognini is also going to enjoy playing in front of the Italian crowd, and you can never count him out in a raucous environment. Having said that, Murray might end up winning this match outright, but we’re rolling with Fognini to take a set. He’s 2-1 in the last three meetings between these two players, and he beat Murray in Rome back in 2017.

Bet: Fognini To Win A Set (-140) 

Italian Open Betting Futures 

Carlos Alcaraz To Win Tournament (+140 – 3 units): Alcaraz has already won clay-court titles in Barcelona and Madrid. Now, the 20-year-old will be looking to win back-to-back Masters 1000 titles, and he’s also looking to send the ultimate message to his competitors heading into the French Open. Alcaraz is the best clay-court player on the planet right now, and he has a manageable draw up until the semifinals. With that in mind, it’s worth putting a few units on the Spaniard and then taking a chance elsewhere.

Casper Ruud To Win Tournament (+3500 – 0.5 units): Ruud is in the same quarter as Jannik Sinner, who I also considered betting at +800 odds. But Sinner’s fitness is an issue and the weather in Rome might make it so that players have to play matches with short rest. Sinner also has the pressure of playing in front of the Italian fans to deal with. So, Ruud is the only person I’m betting outside of Alcaraz. The value here is simply too good to pass up. The Norwegian is off to a tough start in 2023, but he is one of the best clay-court players in the world and the conditions in Rome suit him perfectly. Ruud hasn’t lost many matches at this event and it just isn’t hard to imagine him finding his form here. And as long as he makes a deep run, you should be able to make some money on him. Hedging later in the tournament would be easy because of these outlandish odds.

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