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How to take advantage of big moves with college hoops totals

December 15, 2020 11:05 PM

Happy Wednesday! We have a loaded slate of roughly 40 college basketball games today. For an updated breakdown of Wednesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at noon ET. I'll be joining The Lombardi Line at 12:25 p.m. ET to offer an action update. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3-5 p.m. ET. We'll be breaking down all the big college hoops line moves along with previewing NFL Week 15 games.

In the meantime, I wanted to share a profitable edge I've noticed in college basketball this season.

When betting college hoops, it's common to see huge fluctuations when it comes to totals. Unlike other sports which might move a point or two, it's normal to see some totals jump five points or more in either direction. In general, big line moves are caused by respected money forcing books to adjust their lines. But if you can't pick off the triggering number early, it's pointless to chase a line after it's moved so much. At that point you are "chasing steam" and not getting any value.

For example, yesterday the St. Bonaventure-Akron total opened at 143 and got bet down to 136.5. Yes, this drop was caused by respected under money. However, if you're late to the party and betting under 136.5, you're getting the worst of the number after all value is gone. Instead, I've noticed that it's been profitable to buy low and bet the over after it's dropped at least five points. The cherry on top is also taking advantage of a Ken Pom discrepancy.

In case you didn't know, Ken Pomeroy provides advanced analytics and projected scores that are highly respected and used by sharp bettors.

In the example above, Ken Pom had a St. Bonaventure-Akron final score projection of 144. This projection provided a significant edge to the over once it fell to 136.5, specifically 7.5-points. The game ended with St. Bonaventure winning 81-74 (total 155). So if you bought low on the line move and took the Ken Pom discrepancy, you easily cashed the over.

We also saw it work in the Loyola Chicago-Wisconsin game. The total opened at 130 and got bet down to 125.5. But are you going to bet the under 125.5 after it's fallen so much and the value is now gone? No. Ken Pom projected a final score of 129. By taking the over 125.5, you are buying low on a line move and also capitalizing on a 3.5-point Ken Pom edge. Wisconsin won the game 77-63 (total 140), easily cashing the over.

The key to using this system is tracking all totals across the board and looking for huge drops. Then compare the current total to the Ken Pom projection. I have been highlighting this system on the Market Insights Podcast and will continue to do so each day.

We've also seen low total overs crush it so far in College Hoops. This season, when the total is 135 or less the over is 63-45 (58.3%). When the total is 130 or less, the over is 22-9 (71%). This does not include small school added games or extra games (games with six digit ID numbers).

Here are the top "low total overs" for Wednesday, along with their Ken Pom projected final scores.

Grambling State-UL Monroe Over 129.5  (KP 131)

Butler-Villanova Over 130.5 (KP 132)

South Florida-Cincinnati Over 132 (KP 133)

Montana-Washington Over 132.5  (KP 130)

Tennessee Tech-Jacksonville State Over 133  (KP 131)

TCU-Oklahoma State Over 133.5  (KP 134)

Memphis-Tulane Over 134.5 (KP 134)

Ohio State-Purdue Over 134  (KP 137)

Mississippi-MTSU Over 135  (KP 134)

Be sure to track all college hoops lines using our free VSiN Live Odds page.

 

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