The start of the college basketball season is a really tough time for a lot of recreational bettors. While there is a ton of value to be had, there is only so much time in the day. It is just so hard to be prepared for the season with everything else that goes on in October and early November.
Based on the sheer number of teams, and the fact that football still takes up the vast majority of time, effort and manpower for the sportsbooks, money can be made. As a result, sharp bettors are often the ones attacking the soft, illiquid market early in the season. Truthfully, you can learn a lot about which teams are mispriced and which teams influential bettors are higher or lower on by watching the market moves and taking notes.
My strategy for betting college basketball requires sample size, so I typically wait a little while. I need to be able to dive into the stats to look for some positive- and negative-regression teams. I need some strength-of-schedule data to analyze. I need to see how these teams are coming together with so many new faces with the transfer portal, incoming freshmen and coaching changes.
Easing into the season allows me to have something to process, instead of just speculating about how teams might do because of strong recruiting classes or big-name transfers.
The season is still very young and few data points are available, but I use my writing and research as a way to really dig into a season, and it’s about time to start doing that. This weekly feature at VSiN.com and in Point Spread Weekly will seek out some stats ripe for positive or negative regression that will allow you to isolate some teams and consider their games a little bit deeper.