You will hear a lot of advice on how to bet Super Bowl props. Here is the danger: You will be tempted to bet on a lot of props. That can be dangerous if you’re not an experienced bettor because:
— Prop prices are shaded against public tendencies.
— Prop prices typically don’t offer “true odds” on long shots.
— Sharp betting by professionals often erases early value on the openers.
— You’re just winging it anyway!
We surveyed our back-channel sources for sharp advice on betting Super Bowl props. Here are two key points that jumped out.
Sharps focus on the inherent value of each prop
The number posted is either vulnerable or it isn’t. You attack if it’s vulnerable and leave it alone otherwise. Don’t worry about your pick on the team side or total. If Tom Brady’s passing yardage projection is too low based on what a fair price would be, you bet Over. If it’s too high, you bet Under. It’s possible that “New England -6” but “Brady Under” his passing yardage could both grade out as value bets. It may feel like you’re betting against yourself. Don’t think like the public; think like a sharp. You’re betting to make money. Do smart research to estimate your own fair lines, then bet accordingly.
Sharps prepare their numbers in advance
Once props hit the board, they attack soft spots quickly. But they also monitor line moves to see if public betting creates value that isn’t there initially. Maybe the Brady passing prop was on the money out of the gate. If the public pounds the Over and causes it to rise several yards, value has been created on the Under that wasn’t there initially. Do your best to make this a two-week project rather than a last-second whim.
If you’re betting for entertainment, prepare a bankroll in advance and play responsibly. If you’re betting to make money, take it seriously. Don’t trust your instinct or your full-game handicap and assume the team you like is going to cash all of its props. Each offering is its own entity.