NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Wednesday 11/2

November 2, 2022 08:26 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This is your guide to learn how to bet on hockey. Follow me on Twitter to stay up to date as I handicap the NHL each day.

Market Report for Wednesday, November 2nd

Recap: Tuesday was profitable but it would have been better if I had just stuck with my best bet on the Edmonton Oilers, as they won easily, but I had to go and add three small bets on underdogs late in the day and those bets went  1-2.

Wins: 20 Losses: 18 Units Won: + 3.26 units ROI: 8.7 percent

I’m tracking all my plays on Betstamp: a third party bet tracking app. The bets reveal themselves after the games start. I keep my own personal records as well and they may differ slightly from Betstamp due to several factors, but for the most part, it should line up closely.

Today: There are just two games on Wednesday.

Today’s Bets: There are not bets at this time.

All game lines via DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM Sportsbook, but I will sometimes use the consensus odds from the VSiN NHL Odds page if it is a better price and widely available. All recommended bets will be accompanied by recommended stake size. All stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick.

Philadelphia Flyers (+ 255) at Toronto Maple Leafs (-300)

The situation is Toronto is not good. After winning four of their first six games, the Maple Leafs have lost four in a row. They started off their road trip with a win over the Jets in Winnipeg but followed that up with a loss to Vegas and then lost to all three teams from California. After Philadelphia, their next four opponents are Boston, Carolina Vegas and Pittsburgh. Toronto should win on Wednesday, but they should have won in San Jose and Anaheim, too. There’s a lot of things the Maple Leafs should do that they don’t, though, and you’d have to be out of your mind to bet 300 to win 100 on this team beating anybody right now. Their underlying metrics are nowhere near where they should be for a team that’s this big of a favorite over another team. Toronto ranks 15th in expected goals and 15th in shot attempts. They’ve been super mediocre. The Flyers are tired, and they’re likely going to start their backup goaltender, Felix Sandstrom. Philadelphia’s success is due, for the most part, to Carter Hart’s performance thus far, and their chances of winning drop off significantly with Felix Sandstrom between the pipes. But my model is neutral on this game and that means I don’t have a bet.

Pittsburgh Penguins (-130) at Buffalo Sabres (+ 110)

Pittsburgh played a wild game against the Bruins on Tuesday. They salvaged a point, but ultimately, came away as losers for the fifth time in a row. They had the game in hand, leading 5-2 late in the second period, but the Bruins rallied and tied the game after pulling their goaltender and then they ended it in overtime. Tristan Jarry took the loss for the Penguins in goal, so we’ll likely see Casey DeSmith guard the cage on Wednesday. Pittsburgh ranks among the top-10 in both expected goals and shot attempts, but their goaltending hasn’t been up to snuff this season. Only four teams have scored more goals per 60 minutes, so offense doesn’t seem to be a problem, and that leads me to believe that this team will figure it out. However, while the Sabres are a beatable team, they’re still a team on the rise. The Sabres rank 10th in shot attempts and 15th in expected goals, which are good spots to be considering how a lot of people expected the team to be bad. My model prices the Penguins at around -125 if Eric Comrie starts in goal for the Sabres, so it doesn’t look like I’ll be making a bet on this game.

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