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NHL betting market report for Tuesday, November 8th
I’m travelling internationally this week, so I’m going to have to post some of my articles overnight.
Wins: 23 Losses: 22 Units Won: + 0.96 units ROI: 2.2 percent
I’m tracking all my plays on Betstamp: a third party bet tracking app. The bets reveal themselves after the games start. I keep my own personal records as well and they may differ slightly from Betstamp due to several factors, but for the most part, it should line up closely.
Tuesday’s Bets: Los Angeles Kings -105
All game lines via DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM Sportsbook, but I will sometimes use the consensus odds from the VSiN NHL Odds page if it is a better price and widely available. All recommended bets will be accompanied by recommended stake size. All stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick.
Minnesota Wild (-115) at Los Angeles Kings (-105)
Here are the teams that the Wild have beaten this season: Vancouver, Montreal (twice), Ottawa and Chicago. In other words, the Wild haven’t beaten anybody. The Kings, on the other hand, have earned wins over Toronto, Florida and Tampa Bay, to name a few, and they even defeated the Wild a few weeks ago. The Kings should be the favorite in this game. The Wild have had four days off, but the Kings last played on Saturday, so this isn't a rest situation and it doesn't check out, according to my model. Marcus Foligno, Jordan Greenway and Ryan Hartman are all expected to be back in November, but it doesn’t sound like we should expect to see any of those players suit up for this game. It’s possible that Greenway returns to the lineup, as he will do so at some point during this road trip, but nothing has been confirmed. Either way, give me the Kings on the moneyline at a pick 'em price all day.
Los Angeles is a better team, top to bottom, and if they can play most of the game at even strength, the ice should be tiled toward them. Neither team is getting good goaltending right now, but things are especially bad for the road team. It’s unclear who will start for the Wild on Tuesday, as they will play Anaheim on Wednesday, but Filip Gustavsson is the other option and, so far, he hasn’t made a difference at the NHL level. Statistically, Fleury and Gustavsson might be the worst tandem in the league, but Jonathan Quick and Cal Petersen have put up some awful numbers to start the season as well. However, unlike Fleury and Gustavsson, Quick and Petersen were good last season, and that’s still worth something. Or maybe it isn’t. I don’t know. Goaltenders are voodoo.
My NHL betting model prices this game closer to -130 in favor of the Kings, so I’m risking a little over two units to win two units at -105. The Kings would still be the right side up to -120, but the bet would be a lot smaller. So, if you tail, adjust your stake accordingly depending on the odds that you get.
Bet: Los Angeles Kings -105 Stake: 2.1 units to win 2 units
Arizona Coyotes (+170) at Buffalo Sabres (-190)
Head coach Don Granato said there is a chance that star defenseman Rasmus Dahlin plays on Tuesday. If that’s the case, the Sabres will be a much bigger favorite, and I would consider betting them on the puck line. Buffalo’s offensive game has been on point, but Dahlin is a big reason why. The 22-year-old currently leads the Sabres in points with 15 in 11 games, and if he’s in the lineup, the Sabres should be priced closer to -240. The Coyotes don’t score enough goals (two or fewer in six out of 11 games) and rank dead last in every offensive category. Buffalo should be able to dominate this game, which is not something I thought I’d hear myself say during the 2022-23 season, but here we are.
Nashville Predators (-110) at Seattle Kraken (-110)
Kraken forward Jared McCann has missed the last two games, and there has been no change to his status even though he has been practicing. It sounds like he’s been upgraded from doubtful to questionable, which means the team probably hasn’t ruled out the possibility that he will play. There’s some value on the Kraken at -110 if he suits up unexpectedly, but otherwise, the market has this game priced appropriately. Seattle is a good hockey team, but their goaltending is still very iffy, to say the least. Some money came in on Nashville overnight but there’s been a buy back on Seattle and now the line is where it should be at around -115.
Edmonton Oilers (+130) at Tampa Bay Lightning (-150)
Stuart Skinner started in goal for the Oilers in Washington on Monday against a depleted Capitals team and lost 5-4. Skinner has been good this season, but the Oilers haven’t given him much help. Jack Campbell, meanwhile, has been awful, and he will almost certainly start in Tampa Bay on Tuesday. Campbell has allowed approximately six goals above expected in eight games this season and has allowed at least four goals in more than half of his starts. The Oilers are going to have to outscore their goaltending problems if they want to win games, and while they can do that, it’s a bit tougher against an opponent like Tampa Bay with a goaltender like Andrei Vasilevskiy, on the second half of a back-to-back, nonetheless. My model prices the Oilers at +130.
St. Louis Blues (-125) at Philadelphia Flyers (+105)
Blues’ backup goaltender Thomas Greiss will likely get the start in Philadelphia following Jordan Binnington’s loss to the Boston Bruins on Monday. The Blues are in trouble, having lost seven in a row. They’ve won their first three games of the season, but it’s been downhill ever since. My NHL betting model prices the game as a coin flip, which means the Flyers might be a decent bet. The problem with betting on Philadelphia, though, is that you almost always need them to confirm whether Carter Hart will start in goal or not. They’re a bad hockey team, and their star goaltender is the only reason I, or anyone else, considers betting on them to win games. They’re as bad as the Coyotes in most areas. Of course, injuries to some of their best forwards has been a driving force behind their poor underlying numbers, but Hart is the only good thing about this team. Most shops are sitting at +105 or worse, and I don’t want any exposure on the home team at that price.
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