NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Tuesday 11/1

November 1, 2022 06:13 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This is your guide to learn how to bet on hockey. Follow me on Twitter to stay up to date on starting goaltenders and any new developments that might impact the betting market.

Market Report for Tuesday, November 1st

Recap: Monday was a quiet day. Nothing to report.

Wins: 18 Losses: 16 Units Won: + 2.76 units ROI: 7.9 percent

I’m tracking all my plays on Betstamp: a third party bet tracking app. The bets reveal themselves after the games start. I keep my own personal records as well and they may differ slightly from Betstamp due to several factors, but for the most part, it should line up closely.

Today: Tuesday’s 12-game lineup doesn’t offer up as much value as I’d like to see, but I have one early bet to get things started.

Today’s Bets: Edmonton Oilers -165, Ottawa Senators + 170, Boston Bruins EVEN, Montreal Canadiens + 210

All game lines via DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM Sportsbook, but I will sometimes use the consensus odds from the VSiN NHL Odds page if it is a better price and widely available. All recommended bets will be accompanied by recommended stake size. All stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick.

Nashville Predators (+ 145) at Edmonton Oilers (-165)

Nashville is 1-7 since winning back-to-back games against the San Jose Sharks to open the season in Prague. The Predators rank 30th on offense through nine games and it’s a shame. Juuse Saros is one of the best goaltenders in hockey right now, but his teammates haven’t given him any support, scoring just fewer than 2.5 goals per 60 minutes in all situations. Saros has saved the team approximately three goals above expected, but the Oilers have already defeated teams with solid goaltending and far more offensive firepower. Nashville can turn things around thanks to their goaltender, but they haven’t beat Edmonton in two seasons (0-6) and I’m betting that the streak continues with an Oilers win on Tuesday.

Things started off slow for the Oilers, but they’ve turned it on. The Oilers are back to their scoring ways after finishing as one of the top offensive teams in 2021-22. Only the Boston Bruins have scored more goals than Edmonton has (on a per 60-minute basis) in 2022-23, and I’m confident that their attack will remain dangerous if Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Evander Kane and Zach Hyman are able to do the heavy lifting. Edmonton has won four games in a row, and five of their last six. I think Carolina and Calgary are the two best teams in the league and the Oilers have dropped both in the last two weeks.  The Oilers played their last three games on the road, and there’s always concern that the first game back in front of the home fans will be a dud. But my model prices the home team closer to -185. I was able to shop around and find -160 and better, and you should shop around, too. The only reason I'm listing the Oilers at -165 is because the sportsbooks I pull odds from for this article are all still sitting at -165.

Note: Jack Campbell is expected to start for the Oilers

Bet: Edmonton Oilers -165 Stake: 1.65 units to win 1 unit

Ottawa Senators (+ 170) at Tampa Bay Lightning (-190)

Ottawa played poorly in Florida on Saturday. Maybe they spent a little too much time on the golf course, or maybe they took in the nightlife. Either way, the Senators didn’t start the game on time. That was a shame, too, since they battled back and tied the game before surrendering a late lead to the Panthers. That sort of half-ass performance might work against Florida, who doesn’t have a good goaltender to rely on, but stylistically, the Lightning might prove to be a tougher test. After all, Andrei Vasilevskiy is still the best goaltender in the world. I haven’t decided against betting on the Senators in this game, but I’m interested to see if the market shifts toward the home team before I decide whether I want to make a bet or not.

Update: Andrei Vasilevskiy will start in goal for the Lightning and defender Victor Hedman is OUT. I have a small bet on the Senators at + 165 or better.

Bet: Ottawa Senators + 170 Stake: 0.5 units to win 0.85 units

Montreal Canadiens (+ 200) at Minnesota Wild (-240)

Montreal was a big winner for me on Saturday when they defeated the St. Louis Blues (on the road) 7-4 as a + 235 underdog, and I’d like them to do it all again on Tuesday in Minnesota. However, I think it’s safe to say that the market believes Minnesota is a lot better than St. Louis, and if that’s the case, the Wild will surely be a bigger favorite later in the day. Montreal closed at around + 215 in St. Louis. The Wild are one of the worst bets in hockey right now. They win and lose by consequence of luck and the two games they played this past weekend are a perfect example. The Wild will likely win the game, but I’m only looking to back the underdog here. But maybe I’ll get some better odds later in the day. Stay tuned.

Update: Marc-Andre Fleury and Jake Allen will start in goal for their respective clubs. I am adding a small bet on the Canadiens at + 210.

Bet: Montreal Canadiens + 210 Stake: 0.5 units to win 1.05 units

Vegas Golden Knights (-130) at Washington Capitals (+ 110)

Capitals’ goaltender Darcy Kuemper had a heavy workload on Monday as the Carolina Hurricanes directed 71 shot attempts toward Kuemper’s net in their 3-2 shootout-win over the Capitals. The newly signed goaltender seems to have found his groove with a 4-3-1 record and .922 save percentage. But will Kuemper start back-to-back games? I don’t think you can rule it out, considering that the Golden Knights are a tough team that generates a lot of shots. I would assume head coach Petr Laviolette will strongly consider starting backup goaltender Charlie Lindgren, and that I’m not sure how I feel about that. Kuemper is one of the best goaltenders in the league, and my model isn’t sure what to make of Lindgren. I can tell you that I almost puked while watching him attempt to hold a four-goal lead against the New Jersey Devils last week.

It sounds like John Carlson will return to the lineup, but nothing has been confirmed. It has been confirmed that T.J. Oshie will miss some time, though, which means the Capitals are nowhere near full strength. I’m still higher on Washington than most, but the Hurricanes abused them on Monday. Carolina generated roughly 70 percent of the shot attempts and expected goals in the game. Vegas ranks second in expected goals this season, so it likely won’t matter whether Carlson plays or not. The Capitals are a tired hockey team and my model prices the game at -135 in favor of the Golden Knights, assuming Carlson plays defense and Lindgren starts in goal.

Update: John Carlson is out and Lindgren will start in goal for the Capitals.

Philadelphia Flyers (+ 195) at New York Rangers (-230)

Philadelphia ranks third-worst by expected goals and worst by shot attempt percentage. No team has allowed more shots on per 60-minute basis. The Flyers suck and you shouldn’t believe anything you hear otherwise. Goaltender Carter Hart is the only reason this team is making any noise and while he could potentially drag this team to the playoffs, it’s highly freaking unlikely. The Rangers should win this game easily. However, are we sure Igor Shesterkin is going to start this game? He started back-to-back games over the weekend, and this is the team’s third game in four days. The Rangers only have one day of rest following this game before they play the NHL’s top team, the Boston Bruins, on Thursday at Madison Square Garden. I wouldn’t be surprised if head coach Gerard Gallant turned to Halak for Tuesday's game against the Flyers and I think bettors should approach this game with caution as a result.

Update: Igor Shesterkin will start in goal for the Rangers. Carter Hart will start in goal for the Flyers. It's not often that a goaltender play three games in four days, and my model prices the Rangers around -215 partly because of that.

Boston Bruins (-105) at Pittsburgh Penguins (-115)

Pittsburgh has lost four games in a row, and a date with the Boston Bruins isn’t an ideal spot to try and turn things around. The Bruins is 9-1 and are scoring more goals than any other team in the league. Oh, and goaltender Linus Ullmark is a top-10 goaltender through the lens of goals saved above expected. Penguins’ defenseman Kris Letang missed Monday’s practice due to an undisclosed illness and it’s unclear if he will play in the game. Forward Jeff Carter all missed practice due to injury. He’s expected to miss the game. Boston isn’t at full strength, either, with centre David Krejci sidelined. I could get behind backing the Bruins as a small underdog if Letang is out, but unless head coach Mike Sullivan holds a media availability in the early part of the day on Tuesday, we probably won’t find out until closer to puck drop.

Update: Both Carter and Letang are OUT for Pittsburgh. I'm adding a small bet on the Boston Bruins at around even money.

Bet: Boston Bruins EVEN Stake: 0.5 units to win 0.5 units

New York Islanders (-175) at Chicago Blackhawks (+ 155)

Say what you will about Seth Jones, but he has been decent for the Blackhawks, and he moves the needle when he’s out. I mean, I’m in no way his biggest fan, but he does help the team produce offense. Sure, they did a fine job of scoring goals against the Wild without him on Sunday, but the Islanders are much more aware defensively than Minnesota. Ilya Sorokin only picked up one win in his first four games, but he’s won his last two starts and currently leads the league in goals saved above expected. The Islanders should be priced around -185 Sorokin gets the start on Tuesday.

Update: Alex Stalock will start in goal for Chicago. Seth Jones has been moved to injured reserve.

Los Angeles Kings (+ 120) at Dallas Stars (-140)

Los Angeles walloped the Blues by a score of 5-1 in St. Louis on Tuesday. It was the Kings’ third win in their last four games. Dallas should be a tough test, but how tough depends on the status of their best player, Miro Heiskanen. Dallas won’t be icing their best roster regardless, though, as it sounds like goaltender Jake Oettinger is out for at least the next week or more. Heiskanen hasn’t played since Oct. 24th, and I’m interested in betting on the road team if he doesn’t return. The 23-year-old blueliner practiced with the team on Monday and said he will see how he feels ahead of the game against the Kings. Dallas is a strong team, but if you take their two biggest weapons away, they’re a lot more beatable and that’s why I’m not ruling out a bet on the road team. I’m going to need confirmation that Heiskanen is out, though.

Seattle Kraken (+ 195) at Calgary Flames (-230)

Seattle is embarking on a three-game road trip that will see them make stops in Calgary, Minnesota and Pittsburgh. The Flames will be the toughest test of the three teams. Seattle has won three of their last five games and have scored at least three goals in six straight. However, their goaltenders seem to allow five goals every other game and that’s why the Kraken have a losing record up to this point. My model prices the Flames around -240.

New Jersey Devils (-115) at Vancouver Canucks (-105)

Vancouver Canucks’ defender Quinn Hughes has missed the last four games but appears ready to return on Tuesday. However, winger Brock Boeser, who has been sidelined for the past three games, might not be ready just yet. Hughes was a full participant at practice on Monday, while Boeser was subbed in and out of line rushes and didn’t get any work with the power play units. Head coach Bruce Boudreau originally called Boeser a game-time-decision but switched his status to day-to-day. All of this makes it tough to put a price on the game.

Florida Panthers (-250) at Arizona Coyotes (+ 210)

Arizona is still looking for their first win at Mullet Arena and it’s unlikely they find it on Tuesday. Florida wasn’t as good on the road last season as they were at home, and my model prices this game at -265 in their favor. That means I have virtually no interest in this game from a betting perspective.

Anaheim Ducks (+ 115) at San Jose Sharks (-135)

I didn’t think I’d consider a bet on the Sharks as a favorite in any game this season, but here we are. As bad as San Jose has been, the Ducks have been worse. Both teams are among the bottom-10 in expected goals, but the Sharks are allowed one fewer goal per game than the Ducks and scoring about just as many. San Jose grades out as a stronger team in most categories and my model prices them closer to -140 if James Reimer and John Gibson are the starting goaltenders. Hopefully it doesn’t get to a point where I have to make a bet on this team, because they’re trash, but the Ducks have arguably been the worst defensive team in hockey through the first three weeks of the season, ranking 28th in expected goals against in all situations, while the Sharks have been surprisingly impressive in that regard, ranking just outside the top-10. I’m not dying to be this game by any means, though, and unless the game line starts to trend toward Anaheim, I’ll probably pass on a small edge that I’m not all that confident in.

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Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

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