2022-23 NHL Betting Guide: Projected points, division odds and playoff odds as of Nov. 7th

November 7, 2022 09:40 AM
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Welcome to the NHL Futures page, a continuation of the 2022-23 Hockey Betting Guide. Here you will find projected point total, chances of making the playoffs and chances of winning the division for all 32 teams.

Projected standings as of Monday, Nov. 7th

It’s been one month since the NHL dropped the puck on the regular season. Some teams I had projected to miss the playoffs, like the New Jersey Devils, now look like a lock to qualify, while other teams that I had high hopes for, like the Washington Capitals, have run into some trouble. There’s still time for things to sort themselves out, but with teams now approaching the 15-game mark, it’s time to take another look at the projected standings. If history is any indication, roughly three out of four teams that are in a playoff spot at Thanksgiving will qualify, so the next two and a half weeks are going to be crucial in determining which teams are real and which teams are not.

Best Bets:

Vegas Golden Knights - Pacific Division Winner +240 (available at BetMGM)

Pacific Division

Team

Projected Points

Win Division

Make Playoffs

Golden Knights

112

60%

99%

Flames

106

22%

97%

Oilers

103

14%

93%

Kings

96

3%

76%

Kraken

92

1%

54%

Canucks

84

0%

15%

Sharks

73

0%

2%

Ducks

71

0%

0%

At first, it looks liked the Calgary Flames were going to pick up where they left off and dominate the Pacific Division in 2022-23. The Flames were winners in five of their first six games, but things quickly went south, and Calgary has now lost five of their last seven, including four straight losses on home ice. The good news is Calgary has fewer as least two games in hand on every team in the Pacific Division. Now, this is the Golden Knights’ division to lose. Vegas sits six points ahead of the next best team, and they look like a wagon. Now, don’t get me wrong. It certainly helps that they currently own the best save percentage in the NHL, but they’re also a top-five team in virtually every offensive and defensive category as well. Regardless of whether you’re holding a ticket on a team like Calgary to win the division like I am, the Golden Knights are a good bet if you can get them at the best odds. There’s certainly value in betting them at +160, +150, +115 or even -105, but why would you when you can bet them at +240, which is easily the best price available.

Central Division

Team

Projected Points

Win Division

Make Playoffs

Avalanche

107

58%

97%

Stars

102

29%

92%

Jets

94

6%

65%

Wild

94

5%

63%

Predators

87

1%

29%

Blues

84

1%

16%

Blackhawks

74

0%

1%

Coyotes

64

0%

0%

Despite their early season struggles, and the Stars’ hot start, the Colorado Avalanche are still the favorites to win the Central Division in 2022-23. That’s not a surprise. The biggest shocker is that the Predators and Blues have been as bad as they’ve been so far. Dallas looks like the real deal, while the Wild look like total frauds. Minnesota is dealing with injuries, but they’ve got a lot of catching up to do and no longer look like an elite team. Winnipeg has gotten great goaltending from Connor Hellebuyck, who ranks second in goals saved above expected, and they can likely squeeze in ahead of teams like Minnesota, St. Louis and Minnesota if he stays healthy, but they’re not a very intriguing bet at -105. There’s virtually no chance that Chicago or Arizona make the playoffs, but there’s going to be competition for playoff spots between those teams, and teams in the Pacific Division, and the Western Conference playoff race is probably going to be a hot mess until the end of the season.

Metropolitan Division

Team

Projected Points

Win Division

Make Playoffs

Hurricanes

110

65%

98%

Devils

100

15%

79%

Rangers

100

12%

80%

Penguins

95

4%

53%

Capitals

94

3%

49%

Islanders

90

2%

31%

Flyers

85

0%

11%

Blue Jackets

68

0%

0%

It pains me to say it, but I was very wrong about the New Jersey Devils. Carolina is still the favorite to win the Metropolitan Division, though, as they’re the most complete team, but the Devils currently rank as the best team through the lens of expected goals and sit among the top-five teams in every meaningful category. And to think, their fans wanted head coach Lindy Ruff’s head on a platter after the first two games. Philadelphia probably isn’t going to be able to ride Carter Hart all the way to the playoffs and Columbus is arguably the worst team in the NHL, so there’s still hope for some of the other teams like Pittsburgh and Washington. Their chances of winning the division aren’t good right now, but things can change quick. Still, it’s getting tough to envision a world where I cash my bet on the Capitals to win the division given their injury troubles and the continued dominance of the Hurricanes and Devils.

Atlantic Division

Team

Projected Points

Win Division

Make Playoffs

Bruins

111

63%

99%

Maple Leafs

104

23%

90%

Lightning

98

8%

73%

Panthers

96

4%

64%

Red Wings

90

1%

30%

Sabres

89

1%

25%

Senators

87

0%

17%

Canadiens

78

0%

2%

Readers of the 2022-23 NHL Betting Guide were told to take a flier on the Boston Bruins to win the Atlantic Division at 11-1 and the Stanley Cup at 28-1, and so far, things are looking good. Betting on Boston to make the playoffs at -160 was also advised. It’s not going to be easy, but with one game in hand on Toronto, and a four-point lead over the next best team, the Bruins 10-2 start has put them in a position to win the Atlantic Division often. Of course, I’m not going to recommend betting on them to do so at +130 when I already did so at far better odds. If you didn’t get in on Boston before the season started, or in the early going, it’s a tough sell. Even if it is technically a +EV bet, this is a tough group of teams. Still, the Bruins are clearly the best of the bunch. I don’t believe the Red Wings will find themselves in the playoffs picture come the end of the season, and there likely won’t be any surprises. Well, unless you were one of the people that had Ottawa making the playoffs more than Boston, Toronto, Tampa Bay and Florida.

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