NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Thursday 11/10

November 10, 2022 06:12 AM
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Bruins' star Charlie McAvoy is expected to return to the lineup on Thursday, and my NHL betting model suggests Boston is a good bet at -170, with the assumption that Linus Ullmark starts in goal.

Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This is your guide to learn how to bet on hockey. Follow me on Twitter to stay up to date on my best bets and other news impacts the betting markets.

NHL betting market report for Thursday, Nov. 10

Recap: There were no recommended bets on Wednesday.

Wins: 24

Losses: 22

Units Won: +2.96 units

ROI: +6.4%

I’m tracking all my plays on Betstamp: a third party bet tracking app. The bets reveal themselves after the games start. I keep my own personal records as well and they may differ slightly from Betstamp due to several factors, but for the most part, it should line up closely.

Thurday’s Bets: San Jose Sharks +140, Boston Bruins -170 (see write up for bet amounts)

All game lines via DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM Sportsbook, but I will sometimes use the consensus odds from the VSiN NHL Odds page if it is a better price and widely available. All recommended bets will be accompanied by recommended stake size. All stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick.

San Jose Sharks (+140) at St. Louis Blues (-160)

St. Louis has lost eight games in a row, and I can’t even say that they look like a shell of their former selves because that would imply that they have any of the makings of a playoff team or a Stanley Cup contender.  San Jose isn’t a good hockey team, but they’re on par with the Blues statistically. Assuming James Reimer, who has saved the Sharks almost four goals above expected, starts in goal, the Sharks should be priced around +130. The Blues’ goal share (all situations) is just 34.4 percent. They’re being outscored by almost two goals on a per 60-minute basis and rank as the seventh-worst team by expected goals. San Jose ranks 21st in expected goals, and they have a 42.5 percent goal share. Like I said, The Sharks are not a good hockey team, but they rank higher than the Blues in those categories, and they have a slightly better shot attempt percentage. Bet the Sharks at +140 or better to hand the Blues their ninth straight loss.

Bet: San Jose Sharks +140

Stake: 0.75 units to win 1.05 units

Calgary Flames (+150) at Boston Bruins (-170)

Calgary is playing their third game in four days and trying to avoid losing their seventh in a row. They’ll almost certainly start backup goaltender Dan Vladar on Thursday since starter Jacob Markstrom has played every game over the last four games and Vladar hasn’t suited up since November 1st. Meanwhile, the Bruins are expected to get their star defenseman, Charlie McAvoy, back in the lineup on Thursday, but the team hasn’t officially confirmed it and it will hinge on McAvoy feeling well enough to play today. If McAvoy plays, the Bruins should be priced around -185. Typically, I’d be worried about the possibility that third-string goaltender Keith Kinkaid could get the start for Boston, but since this is the first of three games in four days, and the Bruins have a back-to-back coming up, I think it’s safe to assume that Linus Ullmark gets the start. However, stranger things have happened, and I’m not all that familiar with head coach Jim Montgomery’s tendencies so I’m going to bet half as much as I’d like to bet on the Bruins to win this game.

Bet: Boston Bruins -170

Stake: 0.85 units to win 0.5 units

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PRO TOOLS

Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

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PRO TIPS

The Greg Peterson Experience: In NBA and college hoops, place more value on teams that emphasize low post defense. It travels much better than shooting. View more tips

Live Bet Tonight: In games with favorites laying 3 points or fewer, check out laying the price on the moneyline and avoid losing by a few points. View more tips

PRO PICKS

Paul Howard: Seahawks Win NFC West +350. View more picks

Gill Alexander: Bengals (-6) vs. Browns. View more picks

 

 

 

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