NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Saturday 11/12

November 12, 2022 05:29 AM
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Jack Eichel and the Vegas Golden Knights are on a roll and my NHL betting model suggests they should outmatch the Blues and pick up a win on Saturday.

Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This is your guide to learn how to bet on hockey. Follow me on Twitter to stay up to date on my best bets and other news impacts the betting markets.

NHL betting market report for Saturday, November 12th

Wins: 25

Losses: 24

Units Won: +1.71 units

ROI: +3.6%

Recap: Tough loss on the Kraken (0-1) on Friday. Seattle played well, owning most of the shots and expected goals, but could not overcome a one-goal deficit after Minnesota took the lead late in the first period.

I’m tracking all my plays on Betstamp: a third party bet tracking app. The bets reveal themselves after the games start. I keep my own personal records as well and they may differ slightly from Betstamp due to several factors, but for the most part, it should line up closely.

Saturday’s Bets: Vegas Golden Knights (Regulation) -135, Boston Bruins (Puck Line -1.5) +145 (see write up for bet amounts)

All game lines via DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM Sportsbook, but I will sometimes use the consensus odds from the VSiN NHL Odds page if it is a better price and widely available. All recommended bets will be accompanied by recommended stake size. All stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick.

St. Louis Blues (+185) at Vegas Golden Knights (-215)

St. Louis snapped their eight-game losing skid by barely getting past the San Jose Sharks on Thursday, and now they’re set to face off against the Vegas Golden Knights, who have one nine in a row. This is a big mismatch, as the two teams are at the opposite ends of the shooting and saving spectrum at even strength:

Team

Goals For

Goals Against

Vegas Golden Knights

3.33 (2nd)

1.82 (2nd)

St. Louis Blues

1.83 (30th)

3.23 (28th)

Vegas ranks as the third-best team by expected goals (behind only the Devils and Hurricanes) while the Blues currently sit 22nd in that same category. St. Louis has the third-worst goal share (all situations) in the NHL at 37.25 percent. The Golden Knights have the best (64.75 percent) and according to my NHL betting model, the home team should be priced closer to -260. Therefore, I can justify placing a bet on the Golden Knights to win in regulation at -135.

Bet: Vegas Golden Knights (Regulation) -135

Stake: 1.35 units to win 1 unit

Boston Bruins (-180) at Buffalo Sabres (+160)

After a hot start, the Sabres have fallen back down to earth thanks to some poor goaltending and injuries to two of their top four defenseman, Mattias Samuelsson and Henri Jokiharju. Not the biggest names, but serviceable players, nonetheless. Buffalo has lost six of their las nine games and have failed to cover the puck line in five of those losses. The Sabres’ opponents have scored at least four goals in each of the last five games and the Sabres haven’t had a game in which they allowed fewer than three goals since their 5-1 win over the Canucks back on October 22nd.

Boston, meanwhile, has been running over the league, winning 12 of their first 14 games and covering the puck line (winning by at least two goals) on 10 occasions. I’m a bit worried that Keith Kinkaid could get the start here, but the Sabres are a divisional opponent, and the Bruins play an out of conference opponent (Vancouver) Sunday. Ullmark also used to play for the Sabres, too, and I would assume the team would like him to get a win in his old barn given how good he’s been this season. My NHL betting model suggests the Bruins’ odds should be closer to -205 if Ullmark is in goal, and therefore, I’m going to place a small bet on Boston to cover the puck line at +145.

Bet: Boston Bruins (-1.5) +145

Stake: 0.5 units to win 0.725 units

Ottawa Senators (-120) at Philadelphia Flyers (EVEN)

This is the first of three games in four days for Philadelphia. The Flyers will play the Dallas Stars on Sunday. Carter Hart (.941 save percentage) has been the driving force behind the Flyers early-season success and it’s unlikely that he starts both games. I assume he will play on Saturday since the Senators are an Eastern Conference team that the Flyers are competing against for a playoff spot, but the return of Jake Oettinger could sway Philadelphia to save their star goaltender for Sunday. There’s nothing egregious about how this game is priced, assuming Carter Hart and Cam Talbot are the starting goaltenders, but if head coach John Tortorella decides to go with Felix Sandstrom (.909 save percentage) against the Senators, the odds should be somewhere around -140 in favor of the Senators and therefore Ottawa would be a great value bet at the current odds. Of course, the game line will move quickly, so bettors will have to act quickly.  

Update: Carter Hart will in fact start for the Flyers on Saturday.

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PRO TOOLS

Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

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PRO TIPS

The Greg Peterson Experience: In NBA and college hoops, place more value on teams that emphasize low post defense. It travels much better than shooting. View more tips

Live Bet Tonight: In games with favorites laying 3 points or fewer, check out laying the price on the moneyline and avoid losing by a few points. View more tips

PRO PICKS

Paul Howard: Seahawks Win NFC West +350. View more picks

Gill Alexander: Bengals (-6) vs. Browns. View more picks

 

 

 

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