How September alters MLB betting

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September is the most critical month on baseball’s regular-season schedule. It’s when contending teams make their final pushes for the postseason and lesser teams start looking more closely at what they have for next year. When teams on each end of that spectrum meet, oddsmakers’ prices reflect it.

With the NFL and college football also heating up in September, it is normally only die-hard MLB bettors who maintain their pre-football season pace and focus. Those who continue to attack the boards know we’re watching different teams from those we watched early in the season.

One variable that has become more evident in recent years is that managers’ roles should be scrutinized. How they prepare their teams for the stretch run is reflected in the records. Did they keep their pitching rotations intact? Are their bullpens fresh for what is usually a taxing month? Are the lineups healthy or fatigued? Is team chemistry lacking, or is the squad galvanized to reach its goals? All of this plays a key role in how a team figures to perform in September as the stakes increase.

Perhaps the best way to measure which franchises have performed best in September is to simply rank how well they’ve done against their expected  . performance. This can be calculated easily by determining the return on investment they have provided for their betting backers, as a higher ROI represents a team playing above oddsmakers’ expectations, and vice versa. 

I have ranked the 30 teams in order of their ROI over the last three Septembers. For each team I also provide some key situational monthly data as well as my thoughts on the top five and bottom five teams and how this might impact their 2021 fortunes.

MLB Teams Ranked By September Return on Investment (2018-20)

1. MILWAUKEE BREWERS — ROI = + 24.1%

September Record (2018-20): 52-28, 65.0% (No. 3 of 30) + 19.3 units

Runs For/Allowed (Rank): 4.91 (No. 9)/3.39 (No. 1)

Record by season

2018: 19-7 + 10.5 units — RF/RA: 5.54/2.96

2019: 20-7 + 12.35 units — RF/RA: 5.00/3.30

2020: 13-14 -3.55 units — RF/RA: 4.22/3.89

Record by location

Home: 29-13 + 10.7 units — RF/RA: 5.02/3.21

Road: 23-15 + 8.6 units — RF/RA: 4.79/3.58

Analysis: Milwaukee is looking to extend its franchise-record three straight postseason appearances and is in prime position to do it. In looking at how the Brewers have qualified for the playoffs in three straight years, the September records obviously have a lot to do with it. Last year’s team was besieged by injuries; hence, the decline. With the 2021 team in good health from top to bottom and the pitching staff arguably the best in baseball, it would be a mistake to bet against manager Craig Counsell and the Brewers in the final few weeks.

2. TAMPA BAY RAYS — ROI = + 20.7%

September Record (2018-20): 53-26, 67.1% (No. 2 of 30) + 16.32 units

Runs For/Allowed (Rank): 4.95 (No. 7)/3.77 (No. 4)

Record by season

2018: 19-9 + 9.72 units — RF/RA: 5.43/4.11

2019: 17-8 + 2.8 units — RF/RA: 5.08/3.92

2020: 17-9 + 3.8 units — RF/RA: 4.31/3.27

Record by location

Home: 33-12 + 14.5 units — RF/RA: 5.16/3.69

Road: 20-14 + 1.82 units — RF/RA: 4.68/3.88

Analysis: The Rays have been very consistent in putting together good season-ending runs. Manager Kevin Cash has his team poised to make another charge at the AL East title. But with the September runs for/allowed data trending downward, Cash will need his team to maintain its recent offensive prowess to hold off the hard-charging Yankees. A point that has been a bit understated in MLB circles is that this team has been extremely tough to beat at home in late-season action.

3. COLORADO ROCKIES — ROI = + 16.7%

September Record (2018-20): 40-38, 51.3% (No. 13 of 30) + 13.05 units

Runs For/Allowed (Rank): 4.83 (No. 11)/5.14 (No. 25)

Record by season

2018: 19-9 + 10.45 units — RF/RA: 5.50/3.39

2019: 12-13 + 5.8 units — RF/RA: 4.64/5.64

2020: 9-16 -3.2 units — RF/RA: 4.28/6.60

Record by location

Home: 26-15 + 14.8 units — RF/RA: 5.85/5.22

Road: 14-23 -1.75 units — RF/RA: 3.70/5.05

Analysis: Colorado has little to play for in September besides spoiling, and if recent history is any indication, the Rockies will succeed in doing that to postseason-hungry teams. They will face six series this month against teams in the playoff picture. As has been the case in recent late-season games, Colorado has proven a much better team at home than on the road in 2021. Manager Bud Black’s team will host Atlanta, San Francisco twice and the Dodgers over the next month.

4. KANSAS CITY ROYALS — ROI = + 14.4%

September Record (2018-20): 38-40, 48.7% (No. 17 of 30) + 11.27 units

Runs For/Allowed (Rank): 4.45 (No. 18)/4.71 (No. 18)

Record by season

2018: 15-13 + 6.6 units — RF/RA: 4.68/4.25

2019: 11-14 + 2.27 units — RF/RA: 4.36/5.40

2020: 12-13 + 2.4 units — RF/RA: 4.28/4.52

Record by location

Home: 22-19 + 5.85 units — RF/RA: 4.68/4.95

Road: 16-21 + 5.42 units — RF/RA: 4.19/4.43

Analysis: Kansas City is another team that has accepted the role of spoiler well in the final weeks of recent seasons. It’s a good trait to have, as the team still plays energized baseball even when the stakes might not warrant it. The Royals have produced positive returns in the last three Septembers, and with the team showing signs of improvement in the back half of August, upcoming home series against wild-card contenders Oakland and Seattle could be tough on those foes.

5. LOS ANGELES DODGERS — ROI = + 14.1%

September Record (2018-20): 54-22, 71.1% (No. 1 of 30) + 10.7 units

Runs For/Allowed (Rank): 5.86 (No. 1)/3.62 (No. 2)

Record by season

2018: 18-9 + 2.15 units — RF/RA: 5.96/3.56

2019: 18-6 + 4 units — RF/RA: 5.63/3.25

2020: 18-7 + 4.55 units — RF/RA: 5.96/4.04

Record by location

Home: 26-11 + 1.15 units — RF/RA: 5.95/3.59

Road: 28-11 + 9.55 units — RF/RA: 5.77/3.64

Analysis: The Dodgers’ September record is the best in baseball over the last three years, but as they are typically highly overpriced at this time of year, they haven’t produced the same type of ROI as the top four teams. Still, as Los Angeles has heated up in August, manager Dave Roberts’ team seems poised to give the Giants all they can handle in the battle for the NL West and probable top seed in the playoffs. The Dodgers have been even better on the road than at home late in the season in recent years, and the prices you pay for them in those spots are far more enticing.

6. WASHINGTON NATIONALS — ROI = + 12.7%

September Record (2018-20): 46-37, 55.4% (No. 10 of 30) + 10.5 units

Runs For/Allowed (Rank): 5.30 (No. 4)/4.71 (No. 19)

Record by season

2018: 15-12 + 1.2 units — RF/RA: 5.52/4.85

2019: 17-11 + 3.95 units — RF/RA: 5.46/4.32

2020: 14-14 + 5.35 units — RF/RA: 4.93/4.96

Record by location

Home: 28-17 + 10.75 units — RF/RA: 5.76/4.64

Road: 18-20 -0.25 units — RF/RA: 4.76/4.79

7. MINNESOTA TWINS — ROI = + 12.5%

September Record (2018-20): 49-32, 60.5% (No. 6 of 30) + 10.1 units

Runs For/Allowed (Rank): 4.83 (No. 12)/4.26 (No. 8)

Record by season

2018: 15-13 + 1.85 units — RF/RA: 5.07/4.89

2019: 18-9 + 5.6 units — RF/RA: 5.07/4.48

2020: 16-10 + 2.65 units — RF/RA: 4.31/3.35

Record by location

Home: 28-14 + 6.35 units — RF/RA: 5.21/4.31

Road: 21-18 + 3.75 units — RF/RA: 4.41/4.21

8. HOUSTON ASTROS — ROI = + 8.6%

September Record (2018-20): 52-29, 64.2% (No. 4 of 30) + 7 units

Runs For/Allowed (Rank): 4.88 (No. 10)/3.63 (No. 3)

Record by season

2018: 21-6 + 11.4 units — RF/RA: 4.85/3.07

2019: 19-6 + 6.9 units — RF/RA: 6.16/3.48

2020: 12-17 -11.3 units — RF/RA: 3.79/4.28

Record by location

Home: 26-12 + 2.05 units — RF/RA: 5.71/3.76

Road: 26-17 + 4.95 units — RF/RA: 4.14/3.51

9. OAKLAND ATHLETICS — ROI = + 8.5%

September Record (2018-20): 49-31, 61.3% (No. 5 of 30) + 6.8 units

Runs For/Allowed (Rank): 5.33 (No. 3)/3.98 (No. 6)

Record by season

2018: 16-10 + 4.65 units — RF/RA: 6.42/4.19

2019: 18-8 + 3.8 units — RF/RA: 5.50/3.77

2020: 15-13 -1.65 units — RF/RA: 4.14/3.96

Record by location

Home: 28-13 + 6.4 units — RF/RA: 5.56/3.61

Road: 21-18 + 0.4 units — RF/RA: 5.08/4.36

10. TORONTO BLUE JAYS — ROI = + 5.4%

September Record (2018-20): 38-44, 46.3% (No. 19 of 30) + 4.4 units

Runs For/Allowed (Rank): 4.51 (No. 16)/5.56 (No. 29)

Record by season

2018: 12-16 + 1.1 units — RF/RA: 3.89/4.86

2019: 12-13 + 3.55 units — RF/RA: 4.56/5.64

2020: 14-15 -0.25 units — RF/RA: 5.07/6.17

Record by location

Home: 23-19 + 11.95 units — RF/RA: 4.76/5.24

Road: 15-25 -7.55 units — RF/RA: 4.25/5.90

11. NEW YORK METS — ROI = + 4.1%

September Record (2018-20): 46-34, 57.5% (No. 1 of 30) + 3.25 units

Runs For/Allowed (Rank): 4.94 (No. 8)/4.29 (No. 9)

Record by season

2018: 18-10 + 8.65 units — RF/RA: 4.29/3.46

2019: 17-10 + 1 units — RF/RA: 5.19/3.93

2020: 11-14 -6.4 units — RF/RA: 5.40/5.60

Record by location

Home: 26-17 + 6.6 units — RF/RA: 4.77/4.12

Road: 20-17 + 3.25 units — RF/RA: 5.14/4.49

12. MIAMI MARLINS — ROI = + 2.9%

September Record (2018-20): 36-48, 42.9% (No. 24 of 30) + 2.45 units

Runs For/Allowed (Rank): 4.05 (No. 25)/5.05 (No. 23)

Record by season

2018: 10-16 -1.7 units — RF/RA: 3.23/4.62

2019: 9-18 -2.15 units — RF/RA: 4.30/5.11

2020: 17-14 + 6.3 units — RF/RA: 4.52/5.35

Record by location

Home: 19-19 + 0.9 units — RF/RA: 3.92/4.29

Road: 17-29 + 1.55 units — RF/RA: 4.15/5.67

13. SEATTLE MARINERS — ROI = + 2.0%

September Record (2018-20): 37-38, 49.3% (No. 16 of 30) + 1.5 units

Runs For/Allowed (Rank): 4.16 (No. 22)/4.48 (No. 14)

Record by season

2018: 14-13 -1.65 units — RF/RA: 4.33/3.96

2019: 11-14 -1.15 units — RF/RA: 3.88/5.00

2020: 12-11 + 4.3 units — RF/RA: 4.26/4.52

Record by location

Home: 22-20 + 1.4 units — RF/RA: 3.90/4.24

Road: 15-18 + 0.1 units — RF/RA: 4.48/4.79

14. ATLANTA BRAVES — ROI = + 0.5%

September Record (2018-20): 46-34, 57.5% (No. 7 of 30) + 0.4 units

Runs For/Allowed (Rank): 5.21 (No. 5)/4.41 (No. 12)

Record by season

2018: 16-12 + 3.85 units — RF/RA: 4.43/4.25

2019: 14-11 -0.65 units — RF/RA: 4.76/3.80

2020: 16-11 -2.8 units — RF/RA: 6.44/5.15

Record by location

Home: 25-18 -2.7 units — RF/RA: 5.42/4.77

Road: 21-16 + 3.1 units — RF/RA: 4.97/4.00

15. LOS ANGELES ANGELS — ROI = -0.3%

September Record (2018-20): 35-41, 46.1% (No. 20 of 30) -0.2 units

Runs For/Allowed (Rank): 4.12 (No. 24)/5.41 (No. 28)

Record by season

2018: 14-13 + 0.5 units — RF/RA: 4.00/5.11

2019: 7-18 -5 units — RF/RA: 3.28/5.80

2020: 14-10 + 4.3 units — RF/RA: 5.13/5.33

Record by location

Home: 19-19 + 0.4 units — RF/RA: 4.13/4.82

Road: 16-22 -0.6 units — RF/RA: 4.11/6.00

16. PITTSBURGH PIRATES — ROI = -1.1%

September Record (2018-20): 35-45, 43.8% (No. 22 of 30) -0.85 units

Runs For/Allowed (Rank): 3.88 (No. 27)/4.86 (No. 21)

Record by season

2018: 16-10 + 8.55 units — RF/RA: 4.19/4.00

2019: 10-16 -4.6 units — RF/RA: 4.23/6.15

2020: 9-19 -4.8 units — RF/RA: 3.25/4.46

Record by location

Home: 22-20 + 6.2 units — RF/RA: 3.98/4.19

Road: 13-25 -7.05 units — RF/RA: 3.76/5.61

17. ST. LOUIS CARDINALS — ROI = -3.1%

September Record (2018-20): 46-42, 52.3% (No. 11 of 30) -2.7 units

Runs For/Allowed (Rank): 4.72 (No. 14)/4.36 (No. 11)

Record by season

2018: 12-15 -4.45 units — RF/RA: 5.00/5.41

2019: 16-12 -1.3 units — RF/RA: 5.00/3.79

2020: 18-15 + 3.05 units — RF/RA: 4.24/4.00

Record by location

Home: 21-22 -6.1 units — RF/RA: 4.72/4.30

Road: 25-20 + 3.4 units — RF/RA: 4.71/4.42

18. BOSTON RED SOX — ROI = -5.1%

September Record (2018-20): 38-39, 49.4% (No. 15 of 30) -3.93 units

Runs For/Allowed (Rank): 4.99 (No. 6)/5.12 (No. 24)

Record by season

2018: 15-11 + 1.05 units — RF/RA: 5.31/4.77

2019: 11-15 -8 units — RF/RA: 4.46/5.15

2020: 12-13 + 3.02 units — RF/RA: 5.20/5.44

Record by location

Home: 17-23 -12.95 units — RF/RA: 4.93/5.58

Road: 21-16 + 9.02 units — RF/RA: 5.05/4.62

19. CINCINNATI REDS — ROI = -8.4%

September Record (2018-20): 38-42, 47.5% (No. 18 of 30) -6.68 units

Runs For/Allowed (Rank): 3.49 (No. 30)/3.96 (No. 5)

Record by season

2018: 10-17 -7.18 units — RF/RA: 3.15/4.22

2019: 12-15 -3.15 units — RF/RA: 3.37/4.22

2020: 16-10 + 3.65 units — RF/RA: 3.96/3.42

Record by location

Home: 18-20 -6.3 units — RF/RA: 3.92/4.53

Road: 20-22 -0.38 units — RF/RA: 3.10/3.45

20. CHICAGO WHITE SOX — ROI = -8.4%

September Record (2018-20): 34-46, 42.5% (No. 25 of 30) -6.75 units

Runs For/Allowed (Rank): 4.48 (No. 17)/4.84 (No. 20)

Record by season

2018: 8-19 -8.85 units — RF/RA: 3.30/5.41

2019: 12-14 + 1.55 units — RF/RA: 5.38/4.92

2020: 14-13 + 0.55 units — RF/RA: 4.78/4.19

Record by location

Home: 17-19 -1.05 units — RF/RA: 4.47/4.83

Road: 17-27 -5.7 units — RF/RA: 4.48/4.84

21. SAN DIEGO PADRES — ROI = -8.8%

September Record (2018-20): 34-42, 44.7% (No. 21 of 30) -6.65 units

Runs For/Allowed (Rank): 3.97 (No. 26)/4.42 (No. 13)

Record by season

2018: 12-13 + 2.5 units — RF/RA: 3.72/4.72

2019: 7-20 -12.45 units — RF/RA: 3.37/5.11

2020: 15-9 + 3.3 units — RF/RA: 4.92/3.33

Record by location

Home: 17-20 -5.8 units — RF/RA: 3.78/3.95

Road: 17-22 -0.85 units — RF/RA: 4.15/4.87

22. TEXAS RANGERS — ROI = -10.6%

September Record (2018-20): 30-49, 38.0% (No. 27 of 30) -8.38 units

Runs For/Allowed (Rank): 4.24 (No. 19)/5.39 (No. 27)

Record by season

2018: 9-18 -7.93 units — RF/RA: 3.67/4.81

2019: 11-14 + 1.55 units — RF/RA: 5.28/6.48

2020: 10-17 -2 units — RF/RA: 3.85/4.96

Record by location

Home: 17-18 + 3.1 units — RF/RA: 5.34/6.11

Road: 13-31 -11.48 units — RF/RA: 3.36/4.82

23. ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS — ROI = -14.2%

September Record (2018-20): 34-44, 43.6% (No. 23 of 30) -11.1 units

Runs For/Allowed (Rank): 4.23 (No. 21)/4.63 (No. 16)

Record by season

2018: 8-19 -13.75 units — RF/RA: 3.63/4.96

2019: 15-11 + 3.55 units — RF/RA: 4.27/4.23

2020: 11-14 -0.9 units — RF/RA: 4.84/4.68

Record by location

Home: 23-20 -0.35 units — RF/RA: 4.79/4.47

Road: 11-24 -10.75 units — RF/RA: 3.54/4.83

24. CHICAGO CUBS — ROI = -16.5%

September Record (2018-20): 41-41, 50.0% (No. 14 of 30) -13.55 units

Runs For/Allowed (Rank): 4.52 (No. 15)/4.06 (No. 7)

Record by season

2018: 16-12 -1.15 units — RF/RA: 4.14/3.89

2019: 11-16 -8.95 units — RF/RA: 5.56/4.70

2020: 14-13 -3.45 units — RF/RA: 3.89/3.59

Record by location

Home: 20-19 -7.2 units — RF/RA: 4.18/3.44

Road: 21-22 -6.35 units — RF/RA: 4.84/4.63

25. BALTIMORE ORIOLES — ROI = -17.9%

September Record (2018-20): 26-54, 32.5% (No. 29 of 30) -14.33 units

Runs For/Allowed (Rank): 4.24 (No. 20)/5.16 (No. 26)

Record by season

2018: 7-20 -7.13 units — RF/RA: 3.37/5.67

2019: 9-18 -6.55 units — RF/RA: 4.85/5.22

2020: 10-16 -0.65 units — RF/RA: 4.50/4.58

Record by location

Home: 14-25 -4.95 units — RF/RA: 4.00/4.49

Road: 12-29 -9.38 units — RF/RA: 4.46/5.80

26. NEW YORK YANKEES — ROI = -22.7%

September Record (2018-20): 45-36, 55.6% (No. 9 of 30) -18.4 units

Runs For/Allowed (Rank): 5.81 (No. 2)/4.51 (No. 15)

Record by season

2018: 15-12 -6.2 units — RF/RA: 5.56/4.48

2019: 14-11 -7.9 units — RF/RA: 5.84/4.04

2020: 16-13 -4.3 units — RF/RA: 6.03/4.93

Record by location

Home: 22-11 -1.25 units — RF/RA: 6.21/3.58

Road: 23-25 -17.15 units — RF/RA: 5.54/5.15

Analysis: The Yankees have finished exactly three games over .500 in September in each of the last three seasons for manager Aaron Boone. It’s a safe bet that they’ll probably have to do a lot better than that in 2021 if they hope to catch the Rays in the AL East. We already saw how well Tampa Bay has performed in late-season action recently. The problem for New York down the stretch, where bettors are concerned, is that the prices are usually so high that they can’t afford to guess wrong and back the Bronx Bombers on a rare home loss. That can eliminate any profits earned in a hurry. Boone’s team has produced over 6.2 runs per game in the last three Septembers at home, going 22-11.

27. DETROIT TIGERS — ROI = -24.1%

September Record (2018-20): 24-56, 30.0% (No. 30 of 30) -19.26 units

Runs For/Allowed (Rank): 3.79 (No. 28)/5.65 (No. 30)

Record by season

2018: 10-17 -2.18 units — RF/RA: 4.15/5.48

2019: 7-20 -8.85 units — RF/RA: 3.48/5.89

2020: 7-19 -8.23 units — RF/RA: 3.73/5.58

Record by location

Home: 11-26 -11.1 units — RF/RA: 3.68/5.59

Road: 13-30 -8.16 units — RF/RA: 3.88/5.70

Analysis: Detroit has been a fairly competitive team since the All-Star break and would love to change the trend that has shown late-season swoons in each of the last three years. The Tigers have a chance to play spoiler in 2021 for teams like the Rays and Reds, but only if they can lift their September play significantly. Since Sept. 1, 2018, Detroit has the worst September record in baseball, allowing the most runs per game at 5.65.

28. SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS — ROI = -26.6%

September Record (2018-20): 28-49, 36.4% (No. 28 of 30) -20.45 units

Runs For/Allowed (Rank): 3.62 (No. 29)/4.64 (No. 17)

Record by season

2018: 5-21 -15.7 units — RF/RA: 2.65/4.85

2019: 11-16 -3.65 units — RF/RA: 3.07/4.63

2020: 12-12 -1.1 units — RF/RA: 5.29/4.42

Record by location

Home: 16-25 -15.05 units — RF/RA: 3.12/4.24

Road: 12-24 -5.4 units — RF/RA: 4.19/5.08

Analysis: This certainly isn’t a favorable position for the Giants, especially when we consider their chances of holding off what has been the best won-lost team in baseball over the last three Septembers. The good news is the performance level is trending up, and San Francisco is in a much better spot in 2021 than it has been in the previous three seasons. This franchise has struggled badly at home in recent late-season games, and the Giants have key series against Milwaukee, the Dodgers, Atlanta and San Diego (twice) this month at Oracle Park.

29. CLEVELAND INDIANS — ROI = -27.9%

September Record (2018-20): 42-39, 51.9% (No. 12 of 30) -22.6 units

Runs For/Allowed (Rank): 4.78 (No. 13)/4.36 (No. 10)

Record by season

2018: 14-14 -11.3 units — RF/RA: 4.96/3.89

2019: 14-12 -6.35 units — RF/RA: 5.04/4.50

2020: 14-13 -4.95 units — RF/RA: 4.33/4.70

Record by location

Home: 24-19 -10.4 units — RF/RA: 4.81/4.51

Road: 18-20 -12.2 units — RF/RA: 4.74/4.18

Analysis: This season figures to go down as forgettable for the Indians, who have struggled with critical injuries to their pitching staff and an inability to plug key offseason losses to the lineup. If this year is like others in recent memory, the Indians won’t do anything special in the final month. This team has commanded the respect of oddsmakers at this point in the season the last few years, as a record of three games over .500 doesn’t coincide with the betting losses. Don’t make the mistake of overpaying for Cleveland over the next few weeks.

30. PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES — ROI = -28.5%

September Record (2018-20): 33-53, 38.4% (No. 26 of 30) -24.53 units

Runs For/Allowed (Rank): 4.15 (No. 23)/4.91 (No. 22)

Record by season

2018: 8-20 -16.15 units — RF/RA: 3.46/5.43

2019: 12-16 -1.68 units — RF/RA: 4.36/4.46

2020: 13-17 -6.7 units — RF/RA: 4.60/4.83

Record by location

Home: 18-17 -2.3 units — RF/RA: 4.26/4.29

Road: 15-36 -22.23 units — RF/RA: 4.08/5.33

Analysis: Anyone thinking of investing in a Phillies rally to overtake Atlanta for NL East supremacy should tread with caution after seeing the late-season results for this franchise over the last few years. Two seasons were under manager Gabe Kapler, and 2020 and ’21 belong to Joe Girardi, but the performance has been similar. Philadelphia has been absolutely dreadful in late-season road games lately, and over the next month, the Phillies will visit the Marlins twice, the Brewers, the Mets and the Braves.

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