Horse racing Best Bets for Saturday
We’re a week from the Kentucky Derby, but Team Tuley sees value at the tracks from coast to coast.
Last Saturday, I led the way with one of my two value plays, Verstappen, going off at 16-1 and winning Keeneland’s 8th race, the Elkhorn Stakes and paying $34.30 to Win and $12.50 to Place. That also led the way to me winning a National Horseplayers Championship qualifier at horseplayers.com in a field of 2,373 entries. The finals will be held March 15-17 at the Horseshoe (formerly Bally’s) and I have the rest of the year to earn a second seat. This past year, there was $3 million in purse money with $800,000 to the champion plus the Eclipse Award for Handicapper of the Year.
This Saturday, we’re joined per usual by Rampart race and sports book manager Duane Colucci and Ed Sehon with plays at Oaklawn Park in Arkansas and Golden Gate and Santa Anita in California. Don’t forget that Sehon also uses his Mr. Ed alias to preview today’s opening-day card at Churchill Downs for VSiN.com/horse-racing/
Good luck today (and every day)!
Oaklawn Race No. 2 (2:02 p.m. ET/11:02 a.m. PT)
Ed Sehon likes a value play on #4 Charlie Whiskey (12-1 morning line). “Many unsuccessful players believe that If he stumbled and lost rider in last race, it eliminates him as a contender here. Not me. With jockey Mitch Murrill climbing right back aboard, that indicates his desire to get job done. Trainer Hartman winning everywhere. If Bourbon Heist can win (Friday at Keeneland), why not Charlie Whiskey today? Wager: Win and Place.”
Oaklawn Race No. 7 (4:32 p.m. ET/1:32 p.m. PT)
Ed Sehon likes #2 Jamminjl (6-1 morning line). “While several signs point to a winning effort, the move to Hollendorfer barn and the change of jockeys to Jose Torres hold keys to success. This gal once knew how to win races, but somehow lost her way under previous connections. Inside draw helps in low-level allowance sprint. There’s value here. Wager: Win and Place.”
Oakland Race No. 8 (5:18 p.m. ET/2:18 p.m. PT)
Ed Sehon likes #2 Tape to Tape (2-1 morning line). “In the money in 12 of 22 races, this speedy gelding enjoys sprinting for dollars. Jockey change to hot Torres for Rivelli crew big advantage in pricy allowance test. Inside post helps. Tale of tape is winning one. Wager: Win and box in Exactas and Trifectas with 8 and 9.”
Oaklawn Race Nos. 8-11 (5:18 p.m. ET/2:18 p.m. PT)
Ed Sehon likes a $.50 Pick 4 (cost $54)
Race 8: 2,8,9
Race 9: 4,6,7
Race 10: 1,3,4,5
Race 11: 2,4,10
Oaklawn Race No. 10 (6:36 p.m. ET/3:36 p.m. PT)
Ed Sehon likes chalky #3 Mo Strike (2-1 morning line) in the upgraded Bachelor Stakes. “If top trainer Brad Cox still believes in talented colt, that’s good enough for me. While he disappointed in Hopeful last Fall, he’s rested, ready to return today. Jockey Torres (set for big day) takes mount. First-time Lasix usually helps. In Cox I Trust. Wager: Win.
Golden Gate Race No. 7 (7:20 p.m. ET/ 4:20 p.m. PT)
Dave Tuley likes #7 Chancery Way (8-1 morning line) in the ungraded Camilia Urso Stakes. “There’s plenty of other speed in this race, but that shouldn’t matter at this 5-furlong distance. Chancery Way should benefit from the shorter distance after giving up the lead in her last two races. This is her turf debut, but we hope that also helps hold her price. Wager: Win and Place.”
Golden Gate Race No. 8 (7:51 p.m. ET/ 4:51 p.m. PT)
Dave Tuley likes #6 Creative Peak (12-1 morning line) in the ungraded Lost in the Fog Stakes. “There’s not much speed in this 6-furlong sprint, so this 4-year-old colt might just inherit the lead. He brings that SoCal early speed with him up north to Golden Fields. Trainer Samuel Calvario is also 25% with shippers and 17% in non-graded stakes so we trust he has him placed well here.” Wager: Win and Place.”
Santa Anita Races Nos. 9-12 (8:07 p.m. ET/5:07 p.m. PT)
Duane Colucci likes a $.50 Pick 4 (cost $48)
Race 9: 1,2,4
Race 10: 1,4,9,10
Race 11: 2,3,4,7
Race 12: 5,6
Santa Anita Race No. 9 (8:07 p.m. ET/5:07 p.m. PT)
Dave Tuley likes #5 Mongolian Panther (15-1 morning line) in the Grade 2 Santa Maria Stakes. “A lot of people will pass on this short 6-horse field, but sometimes that’s where you can find the best overlays as the public loads up even more on the favorites, figuring their chances improve with fewer competitors to beat. This 7-year-old mare is stepping up in class, but should be right off the pace with as good of a chance as any of these. Wager: Win and Place.”