Team Tuley's Thoroughbred Takes for horse races on Saturday, April 1

By Dave Tuley  ( senior reporter) 

April 1, 2023 11:14 AM


Horse racing Best Bets for Saturday

The Final Four is the main focus for a lot of sports fans/bettors on Saturday, but Team Tuley has you covered with horse racing action earlier in the day at tracks from coast to coast.

We’re joined by our regulars – Duane Colucci, Rampart race and sports book manager, and Ed Sehon (aka Mr. Ed from his columns when he’s doing his solo projects) – as well as another handicapping friend of mine, John Lauro.

This Saturday, our team has plays at Aqueduct in New York, Gulfstream Park in Florida, and Oaklawn Park in Arkansas with an emphasis on the Florida Derby and Arkansas Derby cards as we continue on the Road to the Kentucky Derby!

Good luck today (and every day)!

Gulfstream Race No. 7 (2:26 p.m. ET/11:26 a.m. PT)

John Lauro likes #5 First Captain (9-5 morning line). “One of my favorite older horses is making his comeback on Saturday. The 5-year-old should be an easy winner in the Grade 3 Ghostzapper Stakes.”

Gulfstream Race Nos. 7-10 (2:26 p.m. ET/11:26 a.m. PT)

Ed Sehon likes $.50 Pick 4  (cost $48)

Race 7: 3,4,5

Race 8: 3,5,6,8

Race 9: 1,2,4,6

Race 10: 6,9

Gulfstream Race No. 9 (3:31 p.m. ET/12:31 a.m. PT)

Dave Tuley likes #6 Steal Sunshine (8-1 morning line). “We’re hoping this 4-year-old colt returns to his form from last summer when he reeled off three straight wins. He then ran in graded stakes in the fall and winter, but now drops back to his level in the ungraded Sir Shakleton Stakes. This is also trainer Bobby Dibona’s forte as he’s hitting 43% in non-graded stakes as well as 20% when cutting back a horse from a route to a sprint. We also get top jockey Irad Ortiz Jr., which causes concern that we could lose value and not hold that 8-1 ML price, but he certainly increases our chances.  I also can’t ignore #4 Weyburn – one of Team Tuley’s favorite all-time horses as Ed Sehon and I both gave him out at 45-1 when he paid $95.50 in the 2021 Gotham Stake while Duane Colucci added the second- and third-place horses for the Exacta and Tri – and the other danger, #7 Paco’ Pico, so we’ll box the 4,6,7 in Exactas and Trifectas.”

Aqueduct Races Nos. 6-9 (3:57 p.m. ET/12:57 p.m. PT)

Duane Colucci likes a $0.50 Pick 4 (cost $30)

Race 6: 2,3,7

Race 7: 1,2,4,5,8

Race 8: 2,4

Race 9: 1,2

Gulfstream Races Nos. 10-14 (4:04 p.m. ET/1:04 p.m. PT)

Duane Colucci likes a $0.50 Pick 5 (cost $72)

Race 10: 5,6,8,10

Race 11: 5,9,10

Race 12: 6,7

Race 13: 5,6,7

Race 14: 9,11

Gulfstream Race No. 11 (4:38 p.m. ET/1:38 p.m. PT)

Dave Tuley likes #10 Metaphysical (8-1 morning line) in the ungraded Sanibel Island Stakes. “Similar to Steal Sunshine, this 3-year-old filly is dropping from graded-stakes competition to a more manageable level. Besides, that fourth-place finish wasn’t as bad as it looks as it was only by two lengths at 58-1 despite trouble. Trainer Jeff Hiles likes to bring back horses in this 45-to-90-day layoff window as he’s hitting 19%. In addition, Hiles has used jockey Javier Castellano just four times the past two months and they’ve made it to the winner’s circle twice. Wager: Win and Place.”

Gulfstream Race No. 13 (5:57 p.m. ET/2:57 p.m. PT)

Dave Tuley likes #11 County Final (20-1 morning line) in the ungraded Appleton Stakes. “The outside post is a concern for this sprinter with the short run to the first turn, but if he can work his way over he should be OK under jockey Edgard Zayas, who is hitting 23% with trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. the past two months. County Final has had success from off the pace so we don’t think he needs to get to the lead to steal this. Wager: Win and Place.”

Gulfstream Races Nos. 13-14 (5:57 p.m. ET/2:57 p.m. PT)

In search of maximum value, Ed Sehon likes Daily Doubles of:

Race 13: 3,4,5,6

Race 14: 11 (Forte in Florida Derby)

Oaklawn Race Nos. 10-13 (6:12 p.m. ET/3:12 p.m. PT)

Ed Sehon likes $1 Pick 4 (cost $48)

Race 10: 1,2

Race 11: 1,2

Race 12: 6,7,8,10

Race 13: 1,2,11


Gulfstream Race No. 14 (6:40 p.m. ET/3:40 p.m. PT)

John Lauro likes #11 Forte (4-5 morning line). “I love the favorite in the Grade 1 Florida Derby. Forte should be an easy winner. He outclasses the field even from the No. 11 post.”

Dave Tuley likes #9 Cyclone Mischief (8-1 morning line). “I have future-book tickets on Kentucky Derby favorite Forte, so I won’t be upset if he romps. But in looking to make money today (and let’s face it, Forte doesn’t need to win this prep as he already has enough points), I’m turning to Cyclone Mischief to get first run on the pace-setters and have a better-than-decent (or at least better than his odds) chance to hold off the favorite. Wager: Win and Place”

Oaklawn Race No. 11 (6:44 p.m. ET/3:44 p.m. PT)

Ed Sehon likes #2 Breslau (6-1 morning line). “This 4-year-old seeks third consecutive dirt sprint for Cipriano barn, gets rider upgrade to De La Cruz. Wager: Win, Place and bet in Daily Doubles with 6,7,8,10.”

Oaklawn Race No. 12 (7:24 p.m. ET/4:24 p.m. PT)

Ed Sehon likes #10 Red Route One (3-1 morning line) in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby. “All-time leading trainer Steve Asmussen teams up with his new go-to guy Tyler Gaffalione, adds blinkers and stretches out in final Kentucky Derby prep. Improving son of hot sire Gun Runner will savor extra ground. Hop on this bus, Gus. Wager: Win and box in Exactas with 6,7,8.”

Duane Colucci likes #1 Bourbon Bash (15-1 morning line). “Thi D. Wayne Lukas runner shows speed figures that are improving, and switching to jockey Reylu Gutierrez is also an improvement. Should be close to what I feel will be a steady but not overwhelming pace. Naturally will have to hold off the Cox, Mott and Yakteen runners. That’s not an easy task, but we’re getting a fair price. Bet 1 to Win and key 1 over 6,7,8,10 in Exactas and Trifectas and reverse.”


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