Mr. Ed's Best Bets, Friday, October 27
CHALK TALK: Horseplaying is a tricky game of balancing risks and rewards. Halfway through this summer’s Saratoga meet, I decided a subtle strategy shift was necessary if I was going to win money for Mr. Ed's followers. Until then, about 40 percent of my wagers were on horizontal, multi-race tickets, i.e., Pick 3s, Pick 4s, and an occasional Pick 5. As we all know, most of those bets ended up in the trash.
Since then, I have concentrated selections on less-risky Win, Place and Exacta pools and have shown a much greater success rate. In fact, I have cashed nine winning bets, three on each of the last three Keeneland coverage days. Unfortunately, most of those ended up being on low-priced favorites, or in horseplayer lingo, chalk.
On none of those days, despite having winners, was I able to post a profit on total invested dollars. So, in order to achieve my ultimate goal of offering followers of Mr. Ed the chance to turn a profit, today and tomorrow, I intend to post a more ambitious mix of selections, including a few multi-race and higher-priced single selections. Let’s see if Mr. Ed can post a net profit over these final two days at Keeneland.
TRACK STATS: Going into the meet’s final day tomorrow, Brian Cox has all but wrapped up the top training title with 11 wins. In addition, Cox has five entered to run today and another five on closing day. Don’t bother to close the Cox stable door. The horse is already out of the barn.
The leading rider contest comes down to a two-man race: Tyler Gaffalione with 20 wins leading Luis Saez with 18. Both have numerous mounts on the final two days. Riders to watch: Flavien Prat and Jose Ortiz (on Saturday). Trainer to consider: Steve Asmussen with a single entrant today, but seven on Saturday.
TODAY AT KEENELAND: The penultimate 10-race card features two competitive stakes and several allowance and claiming contests. First post is at 1:00 p.m. ET and 10 a.m. PT. Overcast skies with a slight chance of rain expected. Here are Mr. Ed’s selections:
Races 1 & 2 (1:00 p.m. ET/10:00 a.m. PT)
To start a promising day, Mr. Ed likes a $5 Daily Double:
R1: #2 SHORTSTOP (3-1 morning line) & #7 LEVEE WAS DRY (12-1)
R2: #7 HIJACK THE PARTY (7-2) & #10 FEELING FREE (6-1)
Wager: $20 ($20)
Race 6 (3:40 p.m. ET/12:40 p.m. PT)
Mr. Ed likes three filly routers: #2 LAST CALL (7-2 morning line) with Rosario; #5 HAY STACK (4-1) with Prat, and #11 QUEEN’S GARDEN (6-1) with Saez. Wager: $5 Exacta Box of 2,5,11. ($30)
Race 7 (4:12 p.m. ET/1:12 p.m. PT)
I like #9 CHOP CHOP (3-1) for a solid Cox-Geroux team. In the money in six of nine starts and winner of nearly $500K, the City of Life offspring is flat-out better than this crew. Look for this classy gal to handle the stretch out in her second race back from break. Wager: $20 to Win. ($20)
Seeking greater rewards, a more adventuresome Mr. Ed jumps into the $.50 Pick 4 pool
R7: 6, 9
R8: 3, 6, 9
R9: 1, 2, 3, 7
R10: 3, 5, 12 ($36)
Race 8 (4:44 p.m. ET/1:44 p.m. PT) — G3 $300K Valley View
Mr. Ed betting on #6 SECRET MONEY (5-1 morning line) to get her picture taken with Tyler Gaffalione aboard. The ultra-consistent sophomore filly won G3 recently at Kentucky Downs following a near miss in a similar stakes at Saratoga. Brendan Walsh trains. Show me the money! Wager: $10 to Win and $5 Exacta boxes of 3, 6, 9. ($40)
Race 9 (5:16 p.m. ET/2:16 p.m. PT) — The $200K Myrtlewood Stakes
I like #3 HOT BEACH (7-2 morning line) to capture this fillies sprint. Trainer Brian Lynch is way overdue to score. Flavien Prat returns to the saddle. A day at the beach. Wager: $10 to Win and box in $5 Exactas with 1,2,7. ($40)
BREEDERS’ CUP: Beginning next Friday (11/03) at Santa Anita Park and concluding with the Classic the following day, VSiN.com will offer comprehensive coverage of all 14 championship races. Mr. Ed is burning daylight, Coors Light and moonlight as he methodically digs into each race in search of profitable plays for followers. Look for Mr. Ed’s exclusive selections starting next Thursday here on VSiN.com, where cashing tickets is what it’s all about.