Mr. Ed's Best Bets on Saturday's Kentucky Derby and undercard

By Ed Sehon  ( handicapper) 

May 6, 2023 04:08 AM


Best Bets on Saturday's Kentucky Derby card

IT’S GOOD TO BE ALIVE: All ($129 in early card bets) was lost, until #14 Pretty Mischievous captured the Kentucky Oaks at 10-1. Mr. Ed now has a chance to cash a hefty $4 Oaks-Derby Daily Double ticket if #2 Verifying (15-1 morning line), #3 Two Phil’s (12-1), #4 Confidence Game (20-1) or #14 Angel of Empire (8-1) wins the Derby later today. Caps off to all those VSiN readers who kept following my picks and joined me in making the bet. After the Derby, let’s all cash those winning tickets!

Here is how I recommend betting Saturday’s Derby Day card on a budget of around $200. Remember that first post is at 10:30 a.m. ET, though we’re not jumping in until the third race.

Race 3 (11:31 a.m. ET/8:31 a.m. PT)

Mr. Ed’s pick is #5 King Ottoman (3-1 morning line) for all-time winningest trainer Steve Asmussen. Veteran Grade 3-placed son of Curlin ships in from Oaklawn. Cuts back to mile following return score there in March. Gets major rider upgrade to Jose Ortiz. Crown him king. Wager: $10 to Win ($10)

Race 6 (1:14 p.m. ET/10:14 a.m. PT)

Mr. Ed likes trio in $175,000 Knicks Go Overnight Stakes: #6 Zozo (5-2 morning line) for hot Cox barn, #11 Kupuna (10-1) for sharp trainer William Calhoun and #12 Caddo River (4-1) for legendary D. Wayne Lukas. Wager $3 Exacta Box. ($18)

Race 7 (1:56 p.m. ET/10:56 a.m. PT)

Mr. Ed likes #10 Arrest Me Red (4-1) in the Grade 2, $500,000 Twin Spires Turf Sprint Stakes for trainer Wesley Ward, whose deep stable excels in turf sprints. In-the-money in 10 of 13 starts, including 6 wins, Pioneerof the Nile offspring should relish the outside post. Irad Ortiz Jr. knows how to dole out of guy’s speed. He has previous win over course and working well in morning. Wager: $10 to Win and box the 10 in $3 Exactas with 4,7,11. ($28)

Race 8 (2:46 p.m. ET/11:46 a.m. PT)

Mr. Ed likes #5 Echo Again (7-2 morning line) in the Grade 2, $500,000 Pat Day Mile Stakes. I’ve been waiting for son of Gun Runner to fulfill his potential. Stretch-running triumph at Oaklawn was last excellent effort. Look for talented sophomore to repeat under Florent Geroux for Asmussen. Wager: $10 to Win. ($10)


Race 9 (3:40 p.m. ET/12:40 p.m. PT)

Mr. Ed likes a $0.50 Pick 4 (cost $52.50)

Race 9: 1,2,11

Race 10: 7

Race 11: 3,4,5,7,8,9,10

Race 12: 2,3,4,11,14

Race 9 (3:40 p.m. ET/12:40 p.m. PT)

Mr. Ed’s BEST BET OF DAY is #11 Carl Spackler (3-1 morning line) in the Grade 2, $500,000 American Turf Stakes. Precocious turfer returns after three-month layoff for powerful Chad Brown barn. Promotion to tough Grade 2 company following maiden victory attests to trainer’s confidence in his ability. Go-to guy Jose Ortiz retains mount. Wager: $20 to Win and $3 Exacta Box with 1,2,11. ($38)

Race 12 (6:57 p.m. ET/3:57 p.m. PT)

Mr. Ed likes #2 Verifying (15-1 morning line) in the Grade 1, $3 million Kentucky Derby. Fast son of Triple Crown winner Justify just keeps getting better. While suffering neck loss to Tapit Trice in Blue Grass was tough, he recorded his best-ever Beyer Speed Figure of 99. Bullet five-furlong work over Churchill oval points to another forward move. Trust and verify Cox-Gaffalione team. Wager: $20 to Win and Place. ($40)


back to news

Live On Air

Streaming Now: Sunday Bet Prep

play Watch Live radio Listen Live


Matt Youmans: Heat (+8.5) at Nuggets. View more picks.


The Lombardi Line: Both the Nuggets and Heat shot poorly in Game 1 of the NBA Finals - and the total is down five points in Game 2 (219.5 to 214.5). Consider betting the OVER if you expect any positive regression. View more tips.