ATS Report: Mage wins Kentucky Derby at 15-1, plus Saturday results in NBA, NHL, MLB, USFL

By Dave Tuley  ( senior reporter) 

May 7, 2023 12:55 AM


Saturday Betting Recaps

Saturday’s sports betting action was dominated by favorites in the NBA and NHL playoffs but underdogs stayed hot in MLB while Mage pulled a 15-1 upset in the Kentucky Derby on the racebook side.

The worst result of the day for a favorite was arguably the scratch of Forte and his connections, trainer Todd Pletcher and owner Mike Repole. I did the fourth rewrite of my “Kentucky Derby Update” story at from Thursday through Saturday as there ended up being five scratches.

Two Phil’s led the 1 1/4-mile Run for the Roses heading into the stretch, but Mage closed like Mariano Rivera to win by a length, returning $32.42 on a $2 Win Bet as the eighth betting choice at 15-1 (same as his morning-line odds despite the scratches of two lower-odds horses below him). Two Phil’s held on for second and paid $10.44 to Place as the 9-1 fourth choice and post-time favorite Angel of Empire paid $4.70 to Show.


Angel of Empire and Tapit Trice were vying for favoritism most of Saturday until Houston furniture salesman/entrepreneur Jim “Mattress Mack” McIngvale reportedly made a $1.2 million Win bet (that was shown live on NBC) on Angel of Empire to hedge against one of his promotions in which anyone buying a $3,000 bed set would get their money back if the Kentucky Derby favorite won the race.

The Derby, with its huge field (though only 18 ran this year instead of the originally drawn field of 20), usually has high payouts in the exotic wagers, and we still had that even though relatively short-priced horses came in the money. The $2 Exacta paid $330.44, the $1 Trifecta paid $982.36 and the $1 Superfecta with fourth-place finisher Disarm at 15-1 returned $15,643.65.

As for the sportsbook side of Saturday’s action, both NBA faves covered and the lone NHL chalk also won (and all three were “zig-zag” winners as well), while MLB dogs actually led 8-7 (they’re 40-30 the last 5 days) and both USFL dogs pulled upsets as well.

Let’s get to the specific details with our daily sports recaps and also update the side and total records in each sport.

NBA: Lakers routed Warriors 127-97 as a 3.5-point home favorite to take a 2-1 lead in their Western Conference semifinal series (game stayed Under the betting total of 229.5 points). Earlier, the Heat routed the Knicks 105-86 as 4-point home faves to take 2-1 lead in their Eastern Conference series (stayed Under 207). Home/faves/Unders all swept 2-0, as did “zig-zag” (aka “loser of the last”) teams as both Lakers and Heat were coming off losses in their prior games.

More NBA: Faves have won and covered 6 straight games and are 9-3 SU in this round and 8-4 ATS. Home teams lead 8-4 SU and 7-5 ATS. Overs 6-5-1. Overall, faves lead 37-18 SU and 31-23-1 ATS (57.4%). Home teams lead 34-21 SU and 31-23-1 ATS (57.4%). Over/Unders are back to .500 at 27-27-1. The "zig-zag" improves to 3-3 ATS this round and 24-18-1 ATS (57.1%) overall.

NHL: Oilers (-128) routed Golden Knights 5-1 to even their series at 1-1 (stayed Under betting total of 7 goals). Faves/dogs now 4-4 this round. Home/road teams also 4-4. Overs lead 5-3. Dogs lead 30-26 overall with 2 games closing pick-’em. Road teams lead 35-23. Overs 31-27. The "zig-zag" gets back to .500 at 2-2 in this round and 26-20 overall .

MLB: Underdogs went 8-7 (40-30 last 5 days) with the biggest upsets by the Rockies (+185 at Mets), Tigers (+162 at Cardinals) and Yankees (+155 at Rays). Road teams 8-7. Unders 8-7. On the season, lead faves 295-201 with 7 PKs. Home teams lead 261-240 with 2 neutral-site games. Overs' slim lead dipped to 245-236-22 (50.9%) with 1 no-action .

USFL: Memphis Showboats (+7) upset Michigan Panthers 29-10 (stayed Under 45) and Houston Gamblers (+2.5) upset Philadelphia Stars 41-16 (Over 46.5) as Week 4 got under way. On the young season, dogs improved to 8-6 SU and 10-4 ATS overall. Over/Unders remain at .500 at 7-7.

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