Saturdays Breeders' Cup best bets from Mike Somich
A wild Friday from the Breeders’ Cup was highlighted by Fierceness’s 16-1 score in the Juvenile. It was a frustrating day at the window with a case of second-itous. We were able to close out the Breeders’ Cup card with a winner in Unquestionable to salvage the day. We’ve got nine more Breeders’ Cup races on Saturday to attack so let’s dive in!
Breeders’ Cup Classic – Santa Anita, Sunday
This is one of the most competitive Classics we have seen in years. The draw was very influential here. You have two clear speed horses in # 6 Saudi Crown and #12 Arabian Knight. I was planning on picking Arabian Night and still respect him, but his ability to clear and get the lead early in the race will be key. If he clears, he will be tough. If he’s forced to stalk, he’s vulnerable. Bob Baffert has been very high on Arabian Knight leading into this, but he will be the favorite in a wide open race so it’s difficult to take a short price. #10 Bright Future has the right price at 10-1 morning line for a horse that has a massive amount of upside late in his four-year-old season. He will sit behind the speed and get first run on the leaders. We have two Japanesse invaders and the better of the two, #8 Ushba Tesoro is live in this spot. He has won all over the world and will have pace to chase today. The Whitney winner, #3 White Abarrio, has looked amazing since switching to the Dutrow barn two races back and is live if he can repeat the effort at Saratoga. He did not beat much in the race, but based off any metric you dive into that was the best race of the older horses. If the pace collapses there are two longshots that I like, both #9 Senor Buscodor and #10 Dreamlike will be rolling late and are both 30-1. If they can hit the board either one will blow up the tote board.
Picks – 10-12-8-3
$25 Win 11
$20 Exacta 11, 12 / 11, 12
$1 Superfecta 8,11 / 8,11,12 / 3,8,9,10,11,12 / 3,8,9,10,11,12
Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint – Santa Anita, Saturday
Speed kills in horse racing and #5 Live In The Dream has speed in spades. He ran out of his shoes at Keeneland last time out going 5.5 Furlongs and could not quite hold on for the last 1/16th of a mile. Today, that 1/16th of a mile will be after the final line and not factor into the payouts. He should be able to clear and will be ultra tough if he gets loose. #1 Big Invasion’s price is the right at 15-1. He was considered one of the best sprinters in the world on the turf last year, but did not make it to the Breeders Cup. This year, he is coming off a wonderful win at Woodbine and will be rolling late with a plethora of pace to chase. When this race was run in California, it has been dominated by local horses. #10 Motorious has had success at Santa Anita and in California all year and is trained by Phil D’Amato who has dominated in the turf stakes all year. The main Euro contender is #2 Bradsell, who has tactical speed, but has been inconsistent in his last few outings. His best efforts makes him a major player at the wire.
Picks – 5-1-10-2
$50 Win - #5
$20 Exacta Box 1, 5
Spot plays –
Saturday, Santa Anita Race #11 - $50 Win #7
Saturday, Santa Anita Race #8 - $50 Win #5