Weekend horse racing handicapper best bets from Mike Somich
We have another action-packed Saturday to look forward to in the horse racing world! Even with the break in major action until Santa Anita reopens in 10 days, we still have stakes action from coast to coast. There has been rain in Miami for the last two days, so Gulfstream has been off the turf, and I would expect that to continue on Saturday. Over the past two years, the synthetic course has played very differently than the turf course, so it is important to note the biases when handicapping. On the turf, you need to be forwardly placed to be successful. On the synthetic, it is the opposite. You want to be stalking or closing.
H Allen Jerkins Handicap, Gulfstream Park, Race #11
As of writing this, the H Allen Jerkins is going to be run at two miles on the turf, but I expect this race to come off the turf and be run at 1-5/8th miles on the synthetic. I am handicapping this for the synthetic but will mention a slight change if we do stay on the turf. Last year’s winner of this race, #1 Value Engineering scored when the race moved from turf to synthetic and is poised to do the same thing again today. His last race at Turfway Park in November after a five-month layoff was a clear prep for this race, and the pace should set up favorably.
#4 F Five enters this race as the wild card. If this stays on turf, he is a clear win threat since he will have a pace edge on the rest of the field. If this does move over to synthetic, then the trip will be much more difficult since going wire to wire is nearly impossible. Include F Five on top if on turf but underneath on synthetic.
#5 Six Minus enters the race off a local prep that was arguably his best race to date. He has had success going over a mile and a half over the turf and ran well on synthetic. The top connection of Pletcher and Ortiz just bolsters the value of this 10-1 shot.
#7 Catch That Party enters off the layoff for the Maker barn, which specializes in these longer races and has the style to be dangerous on the Gulfstream synthetic.
Picks: 5-1-7-4
Bets:
$20 Win #5
$10 Trifecta 1,5 / 1,5 / 4,7
Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity, Los Alamitos, Race #9
As a de facto Derby prep, the Los Al Futurity has seen some of the top Baffert horses over the years, and this year is no different. He comes in with the favorite, #6 Wine Me Up, who projects to be the pace from the outside. He ran very well in the American Pharoah but struggled in the Breeders’ Cup and will need to bounce back off that effort.
Baffert also enters the second choice, #5 Coach Prime, who looked as electric as his namesake in a nice win at Del Mar. It was interesting to see this $1.7 million dollar purchase debut on turf, but that may have just been a learning experience before getting down to work. He does not possess the same pace as his stable mate but has more of a closing kick and is dangerous.
#3 Stronghold will be the main pace threat for Wine Me Up, but he did break the maiden when sitting off the lead. His last race was a solid second to Nysos, who looked like a world-beater.
#1 Moonlit Sonata was a nice surprise debut winning at Del Mar and should not have an issue stretching out in this spot. He lacks early turn of foot, which could leave him with too much to do late in the race.
Picks: 6-5-1-3
Bets:
$50 Exacta 6 / 5
$20 Trifecta – 6 / 5 / 1, 3
Spot plays:
Oaklawn, Race #1 – $25 Exacta 1 / 8
Gulfstream, Race #10 – $20 Win #5
