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Home run derby, Day 2

Jeff Fogle  
VSiN City newsletter

July 17, 2018 11:13 PM

Bombshells! Ten home runs in an All-Star slugfest plus a WNBA star makes history. Shock and awe right now in VSiN City.

MLB All-Star Game: Hope you had Over seven...HOME RUNS

Most were expecting that home runs would be the key factor in the 2018 Major League Baseball All-Star game. But THIS was ridiculous! 

Home Run Dervish

AL: Aaron Judge homered in the second inning (1-0)

AL: Mike Trout homered in the third inning (2-0)

NL: Wilson Contreras homered in the third inning (2-1)

NL: Trevor Story homered in the seventh inning (2-2)

AL: Jean Segura hit a three-run homer in the eighth inning (5-2)

NL: Christian Yelich homered in the eighth inning (5-3)

NL: Scooter Gennett hit a two-run homer in the ninth inning (5-5)

AL: Alex Bregman homered in the 10th inning (6-5)

AL: George Springer homered in the 10th inning (7-5)

NL: Joey Votto homered in the 10th (8-6, after an AL sac fly)

Ten home runs, with some runners finally getting on base to magnify value and send the game flying Over the market total of seven runs. It was 2-2 in the eighth inning and ended 8-6! Ultimately, 13 of the game’s 14 runs scored on homers.

Smart money…and public money…had pounded the American League throughout the day, driving a morning line of -130 all the way up to ranges from -160 to -165 depending on the store. Took awhile to get there…but “favorite and Over” made it a tough night for sports books 

American League (-165) 8, National League 6 (in 10 innings)

Total Bases Plus Walks: American 32, National 28

Starting Pitchers: Sale 1 IP, 0 ER, Scherzer 2 IP, 1 ER

Bullpen: American 9 IP, 6 ER, National 8 IP, 7 ER

A simple “runs created” formula is dividing TB W by four, because it takes four bases to earn a run. Worked out almost perfectly here. That would suggest the American League wining 8-7. 

Tough finish for Under bettors. Extremely dramatic night for everyone else. Congrats to everyone who had the late fireworks go their way. 

VSiN: Brent Musburger to become the new radio play-by-play voice of the Oakland Raiders

Tuesday afternoon, the Las Vegas Review-Journal reported that Brent Musburger had signed a three-year contract to be the radio play-by-play voice of the Oakland Raiders. He’ll continue to host “My Guys in the Desert” on weekdays on VSiN during the football season. 

Brent will help shepherd the franchise’s move from Oakland to the desert in the near future. The first “Vegas” radio voice of the Las Vegas Raiders!

Click here to read the article.

Brent is on vacation this week, but had this to say on Twitter. 

WNBA: Elizabeth Cambage (rhymes with “rampage!”) scores 53 in Dallas’ demolition of New York

Two WNBA games from Tuesday to discuss before we look ahead to this week’s British Open. We start in Arlington Texas, where Australian star Elizabeth Cambage of the Dallas Wings scored a WNBA record 53 points in a run-away victory over the New York Liberty.

Dallas (plus 3.5) 104, New York 87 

2-point Pct: New York 49%, Dallas 57%

3-pointers: New York 7/17, Dallas 8/21

Free Throws: New York 20/28, Dallas 32/38

Rebounds: New York 27, Dallas 32

Turnovers: New York 16, Dallas 11

Those were the team numbers…with production from the unstoppable Cambage fueling all the offensive categories. Here were her individual numbers…

*13 of 17 on two-pointers

*4 of 5 on three-pointers

*15 of 16 on free throws

She also added 10 rebounds. New York’s lack of effort this season has been an anvil driving poor straight up and ATS results. Today, that issue ran into a motivated scorer who just kept attacking the basket (and launching the occasional trey).

Let’s update the recent trends for these teams that we discussed Tuesday on “A Numbers Game.” (VSiN City is guesting with Jonathan Von Tobel all week in place of vacationing Gill Alexander.)

*Disappointing New York is now 5-11 its last 16 games

*Dallas is 6-1 ATS its last seven, and 11-3 ATS its last 14

*The Over in Dallas games are 9-3 the last dozen

Clearly this aggressive offense of the Wings is being underestimated by the market.

Atlanta (plus 7) 86, Connecticut 83

2-point Pct: Atlanta 49%, Connecticut 47%

3-pointers: Atlanta 5/14, Connecticut 7/20

Free Throws: Atlanta 21/25, Connecticut 8/11

Rebounds: Atlanta 37, Connecticut 39

Turnovers: Atlanta 15, Connecticut 12

Atlanta’s also been underestimated by the market of late. Here, dog bettors were sweating a possible overtime when Tiffany Hayes made a steal…then drained a half court shot at the buzzer for a thrilling upset. You can see in the boxscore that getting to the free throw line was the difference maker. Atlanta was plus 13 in made free throws (on 14 more attempts) in a game it won by three. 

These recent tendencies are still in play…

*Atlanta is 7-1 ATS its last eight games

*Connecticut is 5-13 last 18 games

*Connecticut is 4-9 to the Under its last 13 games

We’ve mentioned a few times that Connecticut has really faded since opening the season well. Today’s high market price wasn’t justified by the subsequent result. 

British Open: Dustin Johnson the global favorite, but several serious threats 

The next golf major tees off Thursday at Carnoustie. All VSiN shows will devote extensive time Wednesday to market reports and previews. Let’s see what’s happening overseas at the Betfair exchange. This generally gives you the best sense of “true” odds because punters (bettors) are allowed to bet “no” on golfers (a much pricier bet that they WON’T win the tournament). Helps create extra liquidity and balance. 

The numbers below reflect the market at publication deadlines. You can click here to see live numbers right now. The blue category is what gets returned to the bettor for a win (the $1 stake and the profit…so if you see a “14” in blue, that means the golfer is essentially 13 to 1 on the exchange). The pink category is the “no” category, what you risk to win a dollar (and that dollar is also counted in the price you see).

Dustin Johnson: risk $1 to win $13, risk $13.50 to win $1 on “no”

Justin Rose: risk $1 to win $17.50, risk $18 to win $1 on “no”

Rickie Fowler: risk $1 to win $19, risk $20 to win $1 on “no”

Rory McIlroy: risk $1 to win $22, risk $23 to win $1 on “no”

Jon Rahm: risk $1 to win $24, risk $1 to win $25 on “no”

Tommy Fleetwood: risk $1 to win $25, risk $26 to win $1 on “no”

Jordan Spieth: risk $1 to win $26, risk $27 to win $1 on “no”

Brooks Koepka: $1 to win $26, risk $27 to win $1 on “no”

Tiger Woods: $1 to win $27, risk $28 to win $1 on “no”

Justin Thomas: $1 to win $29, risk $31 to win $1 on “no”

Henrick Stenson: $1 to win $33, risk $35 to win $1 on “no”

Alex Noren: $1 to win $33, risk $35 to win $1 on “no”

Sergio Garcia: $1 to win $35, risk $37 to win $1 on “no”

Friendlier prices than you see at sports books, because the exchange shaves off a charge for assisting on the trade rather than needing to create a house edge. Plus, there are so many elite golfers right now who are capable of winning…the opportunity gets spread out over many big names. 

Back with you Thursday.

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