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History lesson helpful as NASCAR restarts

By Steve Makinen  () 

With the NASCAR Cup Series set to return soon with a loaded schedule featuring four races in 11 days, it’s a good time to look back at similar situations when a lot of racing was done in such a short period. In the modern era, no drivers have been put through this rigorous a schedule. In fact, it has been almost 60 years since the series faced anything resembling this, with Richard Petty winning four straight races in a similar time crunch.

 

Obviously, this is a much different era of racing and a much different situation. For one, Petty won at four different tracks; these four events will be at two venues. Still, this is a huge opportunity for a driver or drivers to build some huge momentum. It’s safe to say that any momentum drivers had gained in the first four races of 2020 is gone since teams will not have been on the track in over two months when racing resumes May 17 at Darlington. As a race handicapper, I would flush early-season stats and trends and focus on which drivers have been most successful at these tracks.

 

Herein you will find a number of top-10 lists for statistical leaders over the last 10 races at Darlington Raceway and Charlotte Motor Speedway. The latter includes only races on the oval and not the two ROVAL races run the last two playoff seasons.

 

I will have my simulations for both tracks in the next two issues of “Point Spread Weekly” and for all four races on VSiN.com and RacersOdds.com. But for now, let’s dig into the lists to see which active drivers have fared best at the two tracks of which we are about to get a heavy dose over the next few weeks.

 

Darlington Raceway leaders lists (since 2010, last 10 races)

 

Average Driver Rating (Starts)

1. Harvick Kevin: 112.55 (10)

2. Jones Erik: 110.83 (3)

3. Busch Kyle: 110.8 (10)

4. Hamlin Denny: 107.78 (10)

5. Keselowski Brad: 100.86 (10)

6. Truex Martin: 100.13 (10)

7. Busch Kurt: 94.16 (10)

8. Kenseth Matt: 90.86 (9)

9. Johnson Jimmie: 90.57 (10)

10. Logano Joey: 88.3 (10)

 

Average Running Position Per Race (Starts)

1. Harvick Kevin: 6.5 (10)

2. Busch Kyle: 6.8 (10)

3. Hamlin Denny: 7 (10)

4. Jones Erik: 7.33 (3)

5. Busch Kurt: 10.6 (10)

6. Keselowski Brad: 10.7 (10)

7. Truex Martin: 10.9 (10)

8. Byron William: 11.5 (2)

9. Logano Joey: 13.4 (10)

10. Newman Ryan: 13.5 (10)

 

Average Finish Position (Starts)

1. Jones Erik: 4.7 (3)

2. Busch Kyle: 6.4 (10)

3. Harvick Kevin: 6.9 (10)

4. Hamlin Denny: 7.7 (10)

5. Keselowski Brad: 11.1 (10)

6. Truex Martin: 11.7 (10)

7. Kenseth Matt: 11.9 (9)

8. Dillon Austin: 12.5 (6)

9. Newman Ryan: 12.7 (10)

10. Buescher Chris: 14.8 (4)

 

Percentage of Total Laps in Top 15 (Starts)

1. Jones Erik: 96.5% (3)

2. Hamlin Denny: 96.3% (10)

3. Harvick Kevin: 93.9% (10)

4. Busch Kyle: 92.9% (10)

5. Busch Kurt: 83.3% (10)

6. Byron William: 82.3% (2)

7. Truex Martin: 72.6% (10)

8. Keselowski Brad: 71.6% (10)

9. Logano Joey: 67.6% (10)

10. Elliott Chase: 65.6% (5)

 

Percentage of Total Laps Completed (Starts)

T-1. Harvick Kevin: 100.0% (10)

T-1. Busch Kyle: 100.0% (10)

3. Dillon Austin: 100.0% (6)

4. Jones Erik: 100.0% (3)

T-5. Truex Martin: 99.9% (10)

T-5. Newman Ryan: 99.9% (10)

7. Buescher Chris: 99.9% (4)

8. Kenseth Matt: 99.8% (9)

T-9. Hamlin Denny: 99.7% (10)

T-9. Keselowski Brad: 99.7% (10)

 

Percentage of Laps Led (Starts)

1. Harvick Kevin: 15.4% (10)

2. Busch Kyle: 14.8% (10)

3. Hamlin Denny: 10.0% (10)

4. Keselowski Brad: 8.0% (10)

5. Jones Erik: 7.2% (3)

6. Busch Kurt: 4.8% (10)

7. Truex Martin: 4.3% (10)

8. Johnson Jimmie: 3.9% (10)

9. Logano Joey: 2.3% (10)

10. Kenseth Matt: 1.2% (9)

 

Win Percentage (Starts)

1. Jones Erik: 33% (3)

2. Hamlin Denny: 20% (10)

3. Kenseth Matt: 11% (9)

T-4. Harvick Kevin: 10% (10)

T-4. Keselowski Brad: 10% (10)

T-4. Truex Martin: 10% (10)

T-4. Johnson Jimmie: 10% (10)

 

Top 5 Percentage (Starts)

1. Jones Erik: 67% (3)

T-2. Hamlin Denny: 60% (10)

T-2. Harvick Kevin: 60% (10)

4. Keselowski Brad: 40% (10)

T-5. Johnson Jimmie: 30% (10)

T-5. Busch Kyle: 30% (10)

T-5. Logano Joey: 30% (10)

8. Kenseth Matt: 22% (9)

T-9. Truex Martin: 20% (10)

T-9. Busch Kurt: 20% (10)

 

Top 10 Percentage (Starts)

1. Jones Erik: 100% (3)

T-2. Hamlin Denny: 80% (10)

T-2. Harvick Kevin: 80% (10)

T-2. Busch Kyle: 80% (10)

5. Newman Ryan: 60% (10)

6. Kenseth Matt: 56% (9)

T-7. Keselowski Brad: 50% (10)

T-7. Truex Martin: 50% (10)

T-7. Busch Kurt: 50% (10)

10. Logano Joey: 40% (10)

 

Charlotte Motor Speedway (oval) leaders lists (since 2014, last 10 races)

 

Average Driver Rating (Starts)

1. Truex Martin: 117.03 (10)

2. Harvick Kevin: 110.09 (10)

3. Busch Kyle: 107.38 (10)

4. Johnson Jimmie: 105.03 (10)

5. Hamlin Denny: 103.18 (10)

6. Busch Kurt: 93.21 (10)

7. Kenseth Matt: 92.51 (9)

8. Keselowski Brad: 90.9 (10)

9. Logano Joey: 90.04 (10)

10. Elliott Chase: 89.53 (7)

 

Average Running Position per Race (Starts)

1. Truex Martin: 6.4 (10)

2. Hamlin Denny: 8.5 (10)

3. Johnson Jimmie: 8.9 (10)

4. Busch Kyle: 9 (10)

5. Harvick Kevin: 9.5 (10)

6. Busch Kurt: 10.2 (10)

7. Keselowski Brad: 12.2 (10)

8. Kenseth Matt: 12.22 (9)

9. Logano Joey: 12.9 (10)

10. Elliott Chase: 14.43 (7)

 

Average Finish Position (Starts)

1. Truex Martin: 6.8 (10)

2. Hamlin Denny: 10.6 (10)

3. Harvick Kevin: 11.5 (10)

4. Busch Kyle: 11.9 (10)

5. Kenseth Matt: 12.1 (9)

6. Suarez Daniel: 12.5 (4)

7. Keselowski Brad: 13.1 (10)

8. Johnson Jimmie: 13.8 (10)

9. Busch Kurt: 14.3 (10)

10. Logano Joey: 14.6 (10)

 

Percentage of Total Laps in Top 15 (Starts)

1. Truex Martin: 93.3% (10)

2. Johnson Jimmie: 87.1% (10)

3. Busch Kurt: 82.7% (10)

4. Hamlin Denny: 82.5% (10)

5. Harvick Kevin: 81.2% (10)

6. Busch Kyle: 78.7% (10)

7. Keselowski Brad: 75.2% (10)

8. Kenseth Matt: 67.3% (9)

9. Logano Joey: 66.1% (10)

10. Dillon Austin: 59.4% (10)

 

Percentage of Total Laps Completed (Starts)

1. Truex Martin: 99.9% (10)

2. Suarez Daniel: 99.9% (4)

3. Almirola Aric: 99.7% (9)

4. Busch Kyle: 99.6% (10)

T-5. Hemric Daniel: 99.5% (1)

T-5. Tifft Matt: 99.5% (1)

7. Wallace Bubba: 99.4% (2)

T-8. Hamlin Denny: 99.3% (10)

T-8. Stenhouse Ricky: 99.3% (10)

10. Buescher Chris: 99.2% (6)

 

Percentage of Laps Led (Starts)

1. Truex Martin: 25.8% (10)

2. Busch Kyle: 15.7% (10)

3. Harvick Kevin: 13.6% (10)

4. Johnson Jimmie: 9.7% (10)

5. Logano Joey: 7.0% (10)

6. Elliott Chase: 5.9% (7)

7. Hamlin Denny: 5.7% (10)

8. Kenseth Matt: 4.1% (9)

9. Byron William: 3.9% (2)

10. Keselowski Brad: 3.5% (10)

 

Win Percentage (Starts)

1. Truex Martin: 30% (10)

2. Johnson Jimmie: 20% (10)

T-3. Busch Kyle: 10% (10)

T-3. Harvick Kevin: 10% (10)

T-3. Logano Joey: 10% (10)

T-3. Dillon Austin: 10% (10)

 

Top 5 Percentage (Starts)

1. Truex Martin: 70% (10)

T-2. Harvick Kevin: 50% (10)

T-2. Hamlin Denny: 50% (10)

4. Kenseth Matt: 44% (9)

T-5. Johnson Jimmie: 40% (10)

T-5. Busch Kyle: 40% (10)

7. Logano Joey: 30% (10)

8. Elliott Chase: 29% (7)

9. Keselowski Brad: 20% (10)

T-10. Dillon Austin: 10% (10)

T-10. Busch Kurt: 10% (10)

T-10. Stenhouse Ricky: 10% (10)

T-10. Newman Ryan: 10% (10)

 

Top 10 Percentage (Starts)

1. Harvick Kevin: 80% (10)

T-2. Truex Martin: 70% (10)

T-2. Hamlin Denny: 70% (10)

T-4. Johnson Jimmie: 60% (10)

T-4. Busch Kyle: 60% (10)

T-4. Keselowski Brad: 60% (10)

T-4. Busch Kurt: 60% (10)

8. Kenseth Matt: 56% (9)

9. Newman Ryan: 50% (10)

10. Byron William: 50% (2)

 

Stay tuned to VSiN and RacersOdds for more NASCAR betting coverage as we get ready for a thrilling and welcome return to racing.

 

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