Here's what we know about historic NBA-MGM deal

By Jeff Fogle  (VSiN City newsletter) 

NBA makes MGM its first gambling partner. Plus baseball galore and Johnny Manziel finally locked into a start north of the border. Sports betting news and notes from your official weekday newsletter…VSiN City!

Sports Betting Industry: NBA names MGM Resorts “Exclusive Official Gaming Partner”

The NBA announced Tuesday a new partnership that will make MGM Resorts the official gaming partner of the NBA and the WNBA.

What does that mean?

Here are some key points with more, no doubt, to emerge in the days and months ahead:

  • The NBA is the first major U.S. sports league to partner with a sports book operator. It comes just three months after the Supreme Court overturned the law banning sports betting in most of the country.
  • MGM will pay the NBA for the official league data to use in determining the outcomes of various bets such, including player props that could be determined on a rebound or an assist.
  • The NBA has long held the position that it should be compensated by sports books for its data, and now it will be under this agreement. The deal is non-exclusive so the NBA is leaving the door open for  other sports books to step up as well.
  • The NBA will receive anonymized real-time betting data from the MGM to help the league monitor how its games are being bet.

There are many details to be worked out, as commissioner Adam Silver admitted that the agreement a “leap of faith” on both sides.

Here is the story from frequent VSiN guest Dustin Gouker of Legal Sports Report.

And another friend of VSiN, ESPN's David Purdum, weighs in here.

If you missed VSiN’s coverage today, the opening segment of “My Guys in the Desert” featured commentary from both Vinny Magliulo of Gaughan Gaming and South Point Sports Book Director Chris Andrews. Click here to see the replay

MLB Futures: Chris Andrews updates South Point prices after trading frenzy

While there weren’t any blockbuster baseball deals that rocked the world, many contenders did make improvements with player acquisitions as the trading deadline approached. Here are updated odds to win the World Series at the South Point for playoff contenders. Percentage win equivalents are in parenthesis.

South Point World Series Odds

3/1: LA Dodgers (25%)

4/1: Boston, NY Yankees (20% apiece)

9/2: Houston (18%)

6/1: Chicago Cubs (14%)

8/1: Milwaukee (11%)

10/1: Arizona, Cleveland, Philadelphia (9% apiece)

12/1: Seattle, Washington (8% apiece)

20/1: Atlanta (5%)

25/1: Oakland (4%)

40/1: Pittsburgh, Colorado (2% apiece)

Sports books create a universe larger than 100% to represent the house edge. We’re already to 97% just with the first five teams listed (Dodgers through Cubs). From Dodgers to Milwaukee adds up to 108%. The full majors easily clears 150%. 

Bettors who jumped on the Dodgers at 6/1 after the Manny Machado acquisition beat the rush.

Here’s a quick look at South Point odds to win each league…

National League: LA Dodgers plus 120, Chicago Cubs 3/1, Milwaukee 3/1, Philadelphia 9/2, Washington 9/2, Arizona 5/1, Atlanta 8/1, Pittsburgh 12/1, Colorado 25/1. 

American League: Houston 2/1, Boston plus 220, NY Yankees plus 220, Cleveland 5/1, Seattle 5/1, Oakland 15/1. 

Two National League teams currently offering juicy returns continued recent hot streaks once play began on the Tuesday night diamonds…

NL Tuesday: Pirates now 14-3 last 17 after beating the Cubs, Rockies 20-6 last 26 with win over Cards

Though it’s still going to be difficult for the Pittsburgh Pirates to make a run into the 2018 postseason, they sure are racking up a lot of impressive wins lately. Tuesday’s 5-4 victory over the Chicago Cubs brings them to 14-3 their last 17 games. That includes a 3-1 record against the playoff-bound Cubs and Indians…five wins over contending Milwaukee, and three wins over a Cincinnati Reds team that was hot at the time. 

Pittsburgh (-120) 5, Chicago Cubs 4

Total Bases Plus Walks: Chicago 20, Pittsburgh 20

Starting Pitchers: Lester 5 IP, 4 ER, Taillon 6.2 IP, 3 ER

Bullpen: Chicago 3 IP, 1 ER, Pittsburgh 2.1 IP, 1 ER

Squeaker. But a win. Earlier Tuesday, Pittsburgh acquired quality starting pitcher Chris Archer from Tampa Bay of the AL East. This could provide a big boost because NL Central teams haven’t seen him yet this season. Archer has a 3.62 xFIP in 2018 (a fielding-independent measure that has more predictive value than ERA on the same scale) while pitching in the DH league and the same division as the potent Red Sox and Yankees attacks. 

The Pirates are now just six games behind the first place Cubs in the NL Central (56-52 for the Bucs, 61-45 for the Cubs). Plenty of time for things to get even more interesting in this division. Of betting interest to those of you with Chicago roots…the Cubs are now back below break-even for the season…down about 0.5 units. 

Colorado (even) 6, St. Louis 3

Total Bases Plus Walks: Colorado 21, St. Louis 9

Starting Pitchers: Gray 7.1 IP, 2 ER, Flaherty 5.1 IP, 4 ER

Bullpen: Colorado 1.2 IP, 0 ER, St. Louis 3.2 IP, 2 ER

Dominant win for the visitor. Colorado is 5-1 its last six (vs. a killer schedule), and 7-3 since the All-Star break. Because the Rockies won their last five before the break…that’s also 12-3 the last 15…going back further it’s 20-6 their last 26 games. Amazing how many teams are turning into juggernauts for a month at a time. 

For the season, Colorado is 58-48, St. Louis drifting toward irrelevance at 54-53 despite the recent managerial change.  

MLB Tuesday: Phillies bounce back with low-scoring win at Boston

It was a virtual replay from last night…both in terms of the Phillies winning Total Bases Plus Walks while stranding a bunch of runners (13 Tuesday, after a dozen Monday). This time, the “right” team won…

Philadelphia (plus 130) 3, Boston 1 

Total Bases Plus Walks: Philadelphia 19, Boston 10

Starting Pitchers: Arrieta 7 IP, 1 ER, Pomeranz 5 IP, 2 ER

Bullpen: Philadelphia 2 IP, 0 ER, Boston 4 IP, 1 ER

Jake Arrieta lowered his ERA to 3.32. We’re deep enough into the season when that can be celebrated for having a big impact in a divisional race. That’s six straight wins for the Phils in Jake’s starts. Four of the six victims are playoff contenders (Washington, Pittsburgh, LA Dodgers, and Boston…yes, he just beat the Dodgers and Red Sox back-to-back!)

Boston falls to 75-34, and really has cooled down lately given the number of close, low-scoring games its been playing. Philadelphia is now 59-48.

In other early finishers of note…

*Washington beat the NY Mets 25-4, brutalizing pitchers and non-pitchers alike. That will warp the Nats’ run differential for the foreseeable future. All those superfluous runs created a point of trivia, little more. Nats back to .500 at 53-53. That’s 5.5 games behind the Phillies in the NL East. Better get off the see-saw soon. Note that Washington is still down just under 20 betting units despite the .500 won-lost record. Mets are down just over 16 betting units. 

*The NY Yankees beat Baltimore 6-3. That brings them within five games of Boston at the top of the AL East. Baltimore is down an unbelievable 38 betting units in 2018. Can they make it to -50?! 

WNBA: Early upsets as play resumes after the All-Star break

The last thing a red-hot pro basketball (or baseball) team wants to see is the All-Star break. The Atlanta Dream had been on a tear for a few weeks in the Eastern Conference of the WNBA. Tuesday, an ugly loss to open the second stage of the season.

Washington (plus 4.5) 86, Atlanta 71 

2-point Pct: Washington 51%, Atlanta 45%

3-pointers: Washington 8/23, Atlanta 3/22

Free Throws: Washington 16/16, Atlanta 16/22

Rebounds: Washington 40, Atlanta 35

Turnovers: Washington 14, Atlanta 9

Two key factors explaining the huge cover. Elena Delle Donne scored 28 points and grabbed 16 rebounds. When she’s dominant like that, then Washington is truly an elite team. Comes and goes. You can see that Atlanta was just 3 of 22 on treys. That made it impossible to counter-act Delle Donne. 

Washington moves back within a game of Atlanta in the East. Washington 15-11, Atlanta 16-10. 

Also on the Tuesday ticket…

Chicago (plus 12) 92, Dallas 91

2-point Pct: Chicago 53%, Dallas 54%

3-pointers: Chicago 6/13, Dallas 2/22

Free Throws: Chicago 12/16, Dallas 29/33

Rebounds: Chicago 30, Dallas 45

Turnovers: Chicago 8, Dallas 15

Another upset and big cover. Dallas may be relying too much on Elizabeth Cambage. It’s so easy to get her the ball and ask her to pound the paint. The problem is, everything else starts to fall apart if that’s always the point of emphasis.

Liz Cambage: 12 of 15 from the floor

Everyone Else: 18 of 59 from the floor

Cambage only missed three shots, but she did turn the ball over five times in attack mode…in a game where turnover differential helped serve as a tie-breaker. Cambage finished with 33 points and 13 rebounds. 

Defense was abysmal. Dallas allowed Chicago to shoot 53% on two’s just under 50% on treys, while only forcing eight turnovers. 

Not quite Oklahoma with Trae Young, because he was a bomber instead of a bulldozer. But, similar concerns for teammates withering next to an attention-garnering star. Dallas falls to 14-12. Chicago moves to 10-17 with the win.

Seattle (-3.5) 102, Phoenix 90

2-point Pct: Seattle 56%, Phoenix 57%

3-pointers: Seattle 11/22, Phoenix 5/21

Free Throws: Seattle 11/13, Phoenix 17/24

Rebounds: Seattle 36, Phoenix 32

Turnovers: Seattle 10, Phoenix 7

A lot of betting interest on Seattle even though Diana Taurasi was listed as probable for the home underdog. That gives you a sense of how the most respected market influences see this Seattle juggernaut entering the stretch run. And, then Seattle showed why it deserved so much respect! No layoff hangover here.

Brittney Griner of Phoenix scored 25 points in 31 minutes. Taurasi scored 20 points in 29 minutes. Yet, Seattle still entered the fourth quarter with a 21-point lead and coasted home. Jewell Loyd scored 29 for the Storm. Loyd was the only Storm player to score more than 16 points even though Seattle topped the century mark. 

Let’s run a new set of estimated “market” Power Ratings based on Tuesday’s lines. We use a standard three points for home court advantage. We’re trying to capture how “the market” sees all the teams in relation to each other using evolving point spreads through the season. 

88: Seattle 

84: Minnesota

83: Los Angeles, Dallas

82: Atlanta

81: Phoenix, Connecticut 

80: Washington

78: Las Vegas

74: Chicago, New York

72: Indiana

If you live in Las Vegas, Wednesday is a good night to check out the Aces. Phoenix and Taurasi come to town in a tough back-to-backer. 

Quick hitters: Also making headlines Tuesday

*A meaningful line move in Thursday’s Hall of Fame game in the NFL. Though Baltimore is still -2.5 on the team side, the Over/Under shot up to 34 Tuesday at many spots including the South Point and Westgate. The public isn’t on a bandwagon this early…so you can assume there’s a “wise guy” element to that adjustment from earlier in the week. 

Chicago has a new head coach this season. Matt Nagy had been the offensive coordinator of the Kansas City Chiefs. Pro bettors often shade their preseason action to Overs for new offensive-minded head coaches…or Under for new defensive-minded head coaches…on the assumption that the new leader will emphasize his specialty right out of the gate. 

*The Montreal Alouettes announced that Johnny Manziel will get his first CFL start this Friday against Hamilton. Manziel originally signed with Hamilton before the season started. He was traded to Montreal last week. 

Hamilton at Montreal will be nationally televised in the US by ESPN2 Friday at 7:30 p.m. ET (4:30 p.m. here in Las Vegas). Hamilton is currently -6 or -6.5 depending on the sports book. The Over/Under is 49.5 or 50. 

*Nevada books won just over $20 million from bettors in the month of June. VSiN senior reporter Dave Tuley runs the numbers in this exclusive article

See you Thursday to bring in the New NFL Year!

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