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Heat Win Day 1 of NBA Free Agency, plus Tuesday MLB Sharp Report

August 3, 2021 12:41 AM

NBA Free Agency kicked off last night at 6 p.m. ET. It wasn't as much of a feeding frenzy as years past, but several big-name players still changed teams. The biggest winner was the Miami Heat, who signed former Raptors point guard Kyle Lowry to a 3-year, $90 million deal. Miami moved from + 3500 to + 2500 to win the NBA Title. 

The Bulls were also active, signing former Pelicans point guard Lonzo Ball to a 4-year, $85 million deal and also adding Alex Caruso for 4 years, $37 million. Chicago saw their title odds improve from + 10000 to + 8000. 

The Knicks re-signed Derrick Rose, Alec Burks, Nerlens Noel and added former Celtics guard Evan Fournier. The Hawks re-signed superstar Trae Young to a five-year, $207 million max contract. The Thunder locked up star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for 5 years, $172 million. Chris Paul re-signed with the Suns for 4 years, $120 million. Mike Conley resigned with the Jazz for 3 years, $72.5 million.

Here are the updated NBA Title Odds for next season at BetMGM

Nets + 230

Lakers + 425

Bucks + 850

Warriors + 1100

Suns, Jazz + 1400

Clippers, 76ers + 1600

Nuggets + 2200

Heat + 2500

Mavs + 2800

Hawks + 3500

Celtics + 4000

Blazers + 5000

Knicks + 8000

Now it's on to Tuesday where as we have a loaded slate of 15 MLB games to choose from. For an updated breakdown of Tuesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting The Lombardi Line with Ben Wilson from 12 to 2 p.m. ET and then Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3-5 p.m. ET.

In the meantime, let's discuss where the action is flowing for several MLB games tonight...

8:10 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Pirates (40-66) at Milwaukee Brewers (64-43)

The Brewers took Monday night's series opener 6-2, cashing as hefty -200 home favorites. In tonight's rematch, the Pirates hand the ball to Max Kranick (1-2, 7.31 ERA) and the Brewers send out fellow righty Adrian Houser (7-5, 3.69 ERA). This line opened with Milwaukee listed as another big -210 home favorite and Pittsburgh a + 190 road dog. Sharps aren't outsmarting themselves on this one. They're not scared off by the chalk. Pros are backing the better team with the starting pitcher advantage, steaming Milwaukee up from -210 to -230. Home favorites -200 or more are 99-40 (71.2%) this season. The Brewers are 45-32 as a favorite, 52-32 against righties. The Pirates are 35-61 as a dog and 33-46 against righties. Milwaukee is 30-24 at home. Pittsburgh is 17-36 away. The Brewers are 11-3 against the Pirates this season. 

8:40 p.m. ET: Chicago Cubs (51-56) at Colorado Rockies (46-60)

Both of these teams are below .500 and highly unlikely to make the playoffs. The Cubs dealt off stars Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez and Kris Bryant. Chicago is just 1-5 over their last six games. The Rockies find themselves with the 4th worst record in the NL and are 3-6 over their last nine games. In tonight's series opener, Chicago starts righty Zach Davies (6-7, 4.39 ERA) and Colorado taps lefty Kyle Freeland (1-6, 4.52 ERA). This line opened with the Rockies listed as a -150 home favorite and the Cubs a + 140 road dog. Sharps have jumped on the Cubs at a juicy plus money payout, dropping Chicago from + 140 to + 125. The Cubs have value as a road dog with a high total. More expected runs scored leads to more variance and upset opportunities. Chicago is 17-13 against lefties this season. The total is 11.5 at Coors Field. There appears to be slight under liability at the under 11.5 is juiced to -115. 

 

10:10 p.m. ET: Houston Astros (64-42) at Los Angeles Dodgers (64-43)

This Interleague Series is a rematch of the 2017 World Series, which the Astros won in seven games. These are also the top two favorites to win this year's World Series, with the Dodgers + 300 and the Astros + 475. In tonight's series opener, the Astros hand the ball to righty Lance McCullers (8-2, 3.23 ERA) and the Dodgers turn to ace Walker Buehler (11-1, 2.19 ERA). This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a -150 home favorite and Houston a + 140 road dog. The public is split and doesn't know who to back, yet we've seen this line move toward the Dodgers (-150 to -165). This signals wiseguy action backing the home favorite. Interleague home teams with a move in their favor are 75-52 (59%) this season. Non-division home favorites with steam 10-cents or more are 209-131 (61%). Home favorites of -150 or more coming off a day off are 48-24 (67%). Los Angeles also has value as a bigger favorite with a low total. The fewer amount of expected runs scored, the more likely the runs come from the "better" team. 

Remember to check the VSiN Betting Splits every day for money and ticket counts so you can tell who the public is betting on.

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