Fortinet Championship
With the PGA Tour reverting to a calendar-year schedule beginning in January, the tournaments that follow the Tour Championship have taken on a new significance. The FedExCup Fall was created and begins this week at the Fortinet Championship.
The Ryder Cup is in two weeks and while all of Team Europe is in England this week for the DP World Tour’s BMW PGA Championship, only two of Team USA is represented in this week's Fortinet Championship, although all of Team USA was in Rome at Marco Simone this past week getting a look at the course. Max Homa (+750) is the back-to-back defending champion of this event. He is joined near the top of the odds board by Ryder Cup teammate Justin Thomas (14-1).
Sahith Theegala (20-1) finished sixth here last year and is still knocking on the door for his first PGA Tour victory with four top-10s in 2023 after two runners-up in 2022. Cam Davis (25-1) finished his 2022-23 PGA Tour season with three top-10 finishes in his last four events. Stephan Jaeger (31-1) has been consistent in 2023, missing only two cuts in 22 events and posting seven top-20s but just one top-10.
Beau Hossler (35-1) is also looking for his maiden tour victory. Eric Cole (35-1) is a PGA Tour Rookie of the Year candidate and made the FedExCup Top 50 courtesy of a runner-up at the Honda Classic and two other top-6 finishes.
Aside from Homa, other former Fortinet winners include 2020 champion Stewart Cink (90-1), 2019 champion Cameron Champ (66-1), 2018 champ Kevin Tway (300-1), 2014 winner Sang-moon Bae (600-1) and 2013 winner Jimmy Walker (175-1).
The Event
The Fortinet Championship began in 2007 as the Fry's Electronics Open. Cybersecurity company Fortinet, based in nearby Sunnyvale, Calif., took over in 2021 from retail grocer Safeway, Inc. (2016-2020) as the title sponsor. It also marks the beginning of FedExCup Fall. Below is an explanation of how the new fall format works:
Tournaments in the FedExCup Fall offer winners the same benefits as regular-season events — including a two-year exemption on the PGA Tour, 500 FedExCup points and spots in The Players, The Sentry and those major championships that invite PGA Tour winners.
But the FedExCup Fall also is when top-125 eligibility, which provides exempt status into full-field events and a spot in The Players, is finalized for the following season.
At the conclusion of the FedExCup Playoffs, players ranked 51st and beyond in the FedExCup will continue to compete for points in the fall. They will begin the fall with all points earned in the regular season and the first FedExCup Playoffs event, the FedEx St. Jude Championship.
Additionally, the top 10 players on the FedExCup Points List at the conclusion of the FedExCup Fall who are not yet eligible for the signature events will get into the two signature events following the season-opening The Sentry. This allows for trending players to emerge from the FedExCup Fall and test their skills against the game’s best.
Nos. 51-70 in the FedExCup at the start of the fall have already clinched their top-125 eligibility for the following year but are competing for spots in the first two signature events following The Sentry.
Nos. 71 and beyond can earn one of the 10 spots available in those signature events but they also are competing to finish in the top 125 of the FedExCup standings at the conclusion of the fall.
At the end of the FedExCup Fall, those who rank from 126-150 on the final FedExCup Fall Points List will have conditional status for the 2024 PGA Tour Season.
All players outside the top 125 can improve or regain tour status via PGA Tour Q-School presented by Korn Ferry.
Players in the top 50 of the FedExCup after the Tour Championship are guaranteed top-125 eligibility and their spots in all signature events for the following season, but they can continue to play FedExCup Fall events to pursue trophies, play in some of their favorite events and earn valuable perks like Official World Golf Ranking points.
The Field
Tyson Alexander
Ryan Armour
Arjun Atwal
Aaron Baddeley
Sangmoon Bae
Ricky Barnes
Jacob Bergeron
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Akshay Bhatia
Fred Biondi
Zac Blair
Devon Bling
Cyril Bouniol
Scott Brown
Wesley Bryan
Jonathan Byrd
Greg Chalmers
Cameron Champ
Kevin Chappell
Henry Chung
Stewart Cink
Eric Cole
Trevor Cone
Austin Cook
Ben Crane
MJ Daffue
Joel Dahmen
Cam Davis
Morgan Deneen
Zecheng Dou
Jason Dufner
Tyler Duncan
Nico Echavarria
Austin Eckroat
Harrison Endycott
Derek Ernst
Dylan Frittelli
Tommy Gainey
Brice Garnett
Brian Gay
Ryan Gerard
Doug Ghim
Michael Gligic
Will Gordon
Tano Goya
Brent Grant
Cody Gribble
Lanto Griffin
Chesson Hadley
James Hahn
Paul Haley
Harry Hall
Nick Hardy
Scott Harrington
Blake Hathcoat
Lucas Herbert
Jim Herman
Kramer Hickok
Garrick Higgo
Harry Higgs
Charley Hoffman
J.B. Holmes
Max Homa
Beau Hossler
Mark Hubbard
Mackenzie Hughes
Stephan Jaeger
Zach Johnson
Tom Johnson
Sung Kang
S.H. Kim
Kevin Kisner
Patton Kizzire
Russell Knox
Satoshi Kodaira
Kelly Kraft
Matt Kuchar
Peter Kuest
Martin Laird
Derek Lamely
Andrew Landry
Nate Lashley
Hank Lebioda
K.H. Lee
David Lipsky
Luke List
Adam Long
Justin Lower
Peter Malnati
Ben Martin
Brandon Matthews
William McGirt
Max McGreevy
Troy Merritt
Taylor Montgomery
Ryan Moore
Matt NeSmith
S.Y. Noh
Alex Noren
Henrik Norlander
Andrew Novak
Augusto Núñez
Sean O'Hair
Geoff Ogilvy
Ryan Palmer
C.T. Pan
Taylor Pendrith
Cameron Percy
Scott Piercy
D.A. Points
Ted Potter, Jr.
Andrew Putnam
Chad Ramey
Chez Reavie
Doc Redman
Kevin Roy
Sam Ryder
Matti Schmid
Matthias Schwab
Robby Shelton
Chase Sienkiewicz
Greyson Sigg
Webb Simpson
Austin Smotherman
J.J. Spaun
Hayden Springer
Kevin Stadler
Scott Stallings
Kyle Stanley
Sam Stevens
Robert Streb
Kevin Streelman
Chris Stroud
Brian Stuard
Justin Suh
Preston Summerhays
Callum Tarren
Ben Taylor
Sahith Theegala
Justin Thomas
Davis Thompson
Brendon Todd
D.J. Trahan
Martin Trainer
Kevin Tway
Erik van Rooyen
Jimmy Walker
Nick Watney
Trevor Werbylo
Richy Werenski
Kyle Westmoreland
Vince Whaley
Dylan Wu
Carson Young
Kevin Yu
Carl Yuan
The Course
The Silverado Country Club's North Course in Napa, Calif., has hosted since 2014. The course's first major redesign occurred in 1966 by Robert Trent Jones Jr. and then again in 2011 by Johnny Miller. It plays a par-72 of 7,123 yards. The course has played at about a stroke under par on average over the last five years (16th easiest on tour).
The Bermuda fairways with Poa Annua and Ryegrass are narrower (second narrowest on tour) than tour average (25.5 yards wide on average). Miller wanted to reconfigure the bunkering on this course to create a bit of an "Augusta" type feel. A strong, balanced game off the tee (both distance and accuracy) is required here because the three-inch Bluegrass/Ryegrass Rough can be tricky.
Although there is some rolling terrain and a couple of holes with elevation changes, it is predominately a flat course. With only two holes with water hazards in play (seventh fewest) and only 50 bunkers (fifth fewest), there just aren’t that many ways for golfers to score bogey or worse.
Players will be hitting into Bentgrass/Poa Annua (11.5 stimpmeter) greens that are elevated with shaved run-offs and can be bumpy. The greens also average 6,200 square feet. Eight years is not a huge sample size, but West Coast players have fared relatively well on these Bent/Poa greens with Max Homa, Cameron Champ and Brendan Steele, all California guys, winning here recently.
Comparable courses include Detroit Golf Club, TPC River Highlands, TPC San Antonio, TPC Deere Run, TPC Twin Cities, TPC Scottsdale.
Fortinet Championship Recent History
2022: Max Homa (-16/272); 10-1
2021: Max Homa (-19/269); 60-1
2020: Stewart Cink (-21/267); 200-1
2019: Cameron Champ (-17/271); 150-1
2018: Kevin Tway (-14/274); 66-1*
2017: Brendan Steele (-15/273); 33-1
2016: Brendan Steele (-18/270); 50-1
2015: Emiliano Grillo (-15/273); 50-1**
2014: Sang-moon Bae (-15/273); 150-1
Playoff win over Ryan Moore and Brandt Snedeker - *
Playoff win over Kevin Na - **
Trends and Angles
— Every Fortinet Championship winner at Silverado, with the exception of Homa in 2021 (42nd), has ranked seventh or better in Scrambling during their respective winning weeks. (2022: Homa third; 2020: Cink second; 2019: Champ first; 2018: Tway first; 2017: Steele seventh; 2016: Steele fifth; 2015: Grillo fifth; 2014: Bae fourth).
— The Fortinet Championship winner has been rated in the top 8 or better for Driving Accuracy during their respective winning weeks.
Statistical Analysis
Last year, Silverado ranked as the 10th toughest to gain strokes on approach on the PGA Tour.
Strokes Gained Approach (Last 50 rounds)
- Chez Reavie 42.9
- Mark Hubbard 31.9
- Andrew Putnam 28.4
- Kevin Roy 26.3
- Nate Lashley 22.3
- Eric Cole 21.9
- Charley Hoffman 21.7
- Ryan Palmer 21.6
- Akshay Bhatia 21.5
- Max Homa 20.3
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout 20
- Justin Thomas 19.8
- Ryan Moore 19
The plurality (near 40%) of the approach shots at Silverado come from 100-150 yards.
Proximity Gained 100-125 Yards (Last 50 rounds)
- Eric Cole 7.8
- Jimmy Walker 7.1
- Harry Hall 7.1
- Patton Kizzire 7
- Chez Reavie 6.3
- Justin Thomas 6.3
- Brian Stuard 6.2
- Paul Haley II 6
- Sam Ryder 5.8
- Charley Hoffman 5.6
- Kevin Streelman 5.5
- Satoshi Kodaira 5.4
- Carl Yuan 5.3
- Brendon Todd 5.1
- Harry Higgs 5
Proximity Gained 125-150 Yards (Last 50 rounds)
- Charley Hoffman 8.4
- Max Homa 7.8
- Cam Davis 7.6
- Akshay Bhatia 6.6
- Satoshi Kodaira 6.3
- Kyle Stanley 6.2
- Jason Dufner 5.8
- C.T. Pan 5.8
- Doug Ghim 5.6
- Aaron Baddeley 5.2
- Robby Shelton 5
With so many wedges being used from the fairway and rough, Opportunities Gained measures players who can generate birdie opportunities inside 15 feet.
Opportunities Gained (Last 50 rounds)
- Chez Reavie 42.3
- Justin Thomas 42
- Charley Hoffman 33.8
- Eric Cole 32.7
- Ryan Palmer 32.1
- Luke List 30.3
- Ben Martin 24.2
- Satoshi Kodaira 22.1
- Stephan Jaeger 21.7
- Marty Dou 19.6
- Kevin Roy 18.9
- Ryan Gerard 18.6
- Brendon Todd 18
- Matti Schmid 17
- Ryan Moore 16.1
- Cam Davis 16.1
- Mark Hubbard 16
Birdie Or Better Gained (Last 50 rounds)
- Eric Gole 35.6
- Max Homa 26.7
- Taylor Montgomery 25.5
- Cam Davis 23.9
- Dylan Wu 23.8
- Akshay Bhatia 23.7
- Stephan Jaeger 22.1
- Sahith Theegala 21.7
- Kevin Yu 18.9
- Mark Hubbard 17.3
- Justin Suh 17.1
- Nick Hardy 16.8
- Harry Hall 16.7
- Scott Piercy 15.7
- Ryan Gerard 14.7
- Justin Thomas 14.4
All four Par-5s are reachable in two shots for the vast majority of the field.
Strokes Gained Par-5s (Last 50 rounds)
- Davis Thompson 24
- Dylan Wu 23.7
- Richy Werenski 21.6
- Andrew Putnam 17.3
- Ryan Gerard 16.5
- Webb Simpson 15.8
- Nate Lashley 15.8
- Cam Davis 15.1
- Kevin Yu 15.1
- KH Lee 14.1
- Adam Long 13.9
- Ryan Palmer 13.2
- Matt Kuchar 12.4
- Sam Stevens 12.1
- Max Homa 11.3
- Zac Blair 10.4
- Akshay Bhatia 10
With some undulations in the greens, plus some tricky Poa Annua, putting is where it is most difficult to gain from a Strokes Gained perspective.
Strokes Gained Putting — Bentgrass/Poa Annua (Last 50 Rounds)
- Max Homa 47.9
- Justin Suh 43.9
- Justin Lower 39.2
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout 35.9
- Brendon Todd 33.6
- Chesson Hadley 32.1
- Eric Cole 31.4
- Seung-yul Noh 31.3
- Lucas Herbert 28.9
- Adam Long 28.8
- Andrew Putnam 28.5
- Taylor Montgomery 25.6
- Beau Hossler 24.3
- Mackenzie Hughes 22
Both bombers and plotters have won here at Silverado. Nevertheless, there is very little penalty here for missing fairways despite having some of the narrowest on tour.
Strokes Gained: Off The Tee (Last 50 rounds)
- Brett Grant 41
- Kevin Yu 33.7
- Garrick Higgo 32.4
- Luke List 31.6
- Beau Hossler 27.1
- Tyler Duncan 26.9
- Trevor Cone 26.1
- Cameron Champ 25
- Cam Davis 24.8
- Sam Stevens 24
- MJ Daffue 24
- Stephan Jaeger 21
Good Drives Gained (Last 50 rounds)
- Matthew NeSmith 43.2
- Doug Ghim 40.3
- Chez Reavie 37.3
- Andrew Putnam 35.3
- Ryan Armour 34
- Tyler Duncan 30.5
- James Hahn 28.6
- Brendon Todd 28.6
- Kevin Yu 27.7
- Ben Martin 27.6
- Luke List 27
- Akshay Bhatia 27
- Kevin Streelman 25.1
Silverado ranked as the 10th most difficult on tour to gain around the greens largely due to deep bunkers surrounding the putting surfaces and the run-off areas around the greens.
Strokes Gained: Around The Green (Last 50 rounds)
- Brendon Todd 26.5
- Aaron Baddeley 24
- Matthias Schwab 23.7
- Jonathan Byrd 22.2
- Ricky Barnes 18.9
- Kevin Streelman 18.4
- Alex Noren 17.8
- Arjun Atwal 17.5
- Justin Thomas 17.5
- Mackenzie Hughes 17.3
- Wesley Bryan 16.9
- Matt Kuchar 16.7
- Stephan Jaeger 16.1
Scrambling Gained (Last 50 rounds)
- Alex Noren 21.6
- Peter Malnati 20.7
- Chad Ramey 18.5
- Jonathan Byrd 18.3
- Brendon Todd 17.5
- Aaron Baddeley 17.1
- Matt Kuchar 17.1
- Austin Cook 14.9
- Andrew Novak 14.3
- J.J. Spaun 12.5
- Ricky Barnes 12.4
- Kevin Streelman 12.2
Selections
Beau Hossler (25-1, BetMGM)
Hossler finished the 2022-23 PGA Tour season with three top-20s in his last four starts.
As you can see in the measured stats above, he is a terrific putter, especially on Bent/Poa, and he ranks fifth off the tee over his last 50 rounds.
This looks like a good place for Hossler to get his maiden win. He almost got it at the team event in the Zurich Classic of New Orleans earlier this year with his partner and friend Wyndham Clark, and we know what happened with the latter this season.
Akshay Bhatia (45-1, BetMGM)
Bhatia earned his first PGA Tour victory just eight weeks ago at the Barracuda Championship in a playoff over Patrick Rodgers.
That is not the only recent life milestone for Bhatia as he just got engaged several days ago to his girlfriend, Presleigh Schultz, right in Napa Valley where the Fortinet is being played this week.
Bhatia was ninth here on debut in 2020 at just 19 years old.
Davis Thompson (50-1, Caesars Sportsbook)
Thompson just missed the top 70 (73rd) to get into the FedEx Cup Playoffs, but he can still improve his position and get into the early signature events for what is his second season on the PGA Tour.
He was ninth here last year in what was his first start with a full-time PGA Tour card.
That finish and a runner-up to Jon Rahm at the American Express were the best two of his rookie season, both in California.
Chez Reavie (70-1, Caesars Sportsbook)
Reavie is the best iron player in the field over the last three months as evidenced by ranking No. 1 in the field for Strokes Gained: Approach.
He finished third here in 2020.
Furthermore, Reavie is a former champion at the Travelers Championship (TPC River Highlands is a strongly correlated course to Silverado), where he posted a T-4 earlier this summer for his best finish thus far in 2023.
Mark Hubbard (70-1, Caesars Sportsbook)
Hubbard ranks second in this field for Strokes Gained: Approach over the last 50 rounds.
He posted a T-6 earlier this summer at the John Deere Classic (TPC Deere Run is a strongly correlated course to Silverado).
He has finished 21st or better in three of his last four starts here.
Kevin Yu (80-1, Bet Rivers)
Yu ranks second in this field for Strokes Gained: Off The Tee over the last 50 rounds.
The man from Taiwan finished sixth earlier this summer at the John Deere Classic at the course-correlated TPC Deere Run.
Note: Any matchups or placement market wagers for these two events will be up at VSiN.com/picks