Best bets for the FedEx St. Jude Championship

FedEx St. Jude Championship

Lucas Glover won his way into the FedEx Cup Playoffs with a two-shot victory at the Wyndham Championship on Sunday. Glover, a winning ticket at 90-1, managed a two-hour rain delay and took advantage of a faltering Russell Henley to win for the first time in more than two years.

Henley let one get away at Sedgefield for the second time in three years. When play resumed, he took the lead with a two-putt birdie on the par-5 15th, then everything went wrong in a bogey-bogey-bogey finish.

His mediocre tee shot on the par-3 16th came down the slope at the front of the green and took one more turn into a deep divot. He chopped that out to 35 feet and made bogey. He sent his tee shot on the 17th into the trees, and his next shot buried in a deep hole in thick rough. He had to scramble for bogey.

Then on the closing hole, his approach from the fairway came up short and rolled off the green. He pitched to 18 feet and two-putted. He had gone 21 straight holes without a bogey and finished with three straight for a 69.

Two years ago, he had four bogeys over the last eight holes and missed a playoff by one shot.

Meanwhile, Glover led the field for Strokes Gained: Approach and was fourth in the field for Strokes Gained: Off The Tee.

The other Sunday story involved Justin Thomas and his attempt to get into the top 70 for this week's playoffs. Thomas ended his season with a shot he won’t soon forget. Needing a birdie on the 18th hole, his pitch from 100 feet short of the hole smacked off the base of the pin and settled inches away as he fell to the ground in disbelief. Thomas finished 71st on the points list and will not be a part of the playoffs. He’ll now have to wait to see if he will also miss out on the U.S. Ryder Cup team.

Adam Scott closed with a 63 and missed the postseason for the first time since the FedEx Cup began in 2007.

That leaves Matt Kuchar as the only player who has been eligible for the playoffs every year since 2007.

The FedEx Cup Playoffs begin this week at the FedEx St. Jude Invitational in Memphis. The top three in the point standings — 1. Jon Rahm (9-1), 2. Scottie Scheffler (+650), and 3. Rory McIlroy (8-1), a three-time FedEx Cup winner (2016, 2019, 2022) — are the single-digit favored prices this week.

Patrick Cantlay (16-1), the 2021 FedEx Cup winner, Xander Schauffele (18-1) and Viktor Hovland (20-1) follow in the market.

Players priced in the mid-20s and 30s include Collin Morikawa (25-1), Tyrrell Hatton (25-1), Tommy Fleetwood (33-1), Rickie Fowler (33-1), Tony Finau (35-1), Wyndham Clark (35-1), Matt Fitzpatrick (35-1), who has three top-6 finishes in the last four years here, and 2015 FedEx Cup winner Jordan Spieth (35-1).

The Event

The top 70 players in the FedEx Cup point standings will compete this week at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. After the conclusion of this week's event, the top 50 in the points move on to next week's BMW Championship. Then, the top 30 in points advance to the finale at the Tour Championship.

On the line this week: $20 million in prize money.

Last year’s champion of this event, Will Zalatoris, is recovering from back surgery and finished 138th in the point standings. Even with its long history, the only player in the field who has won an event at TPC Southwind is Harris English who triumphed at the 2013 St. Jude Classic.

​FedEx’s history with the PGA Tour dates to 1986, and St. Jude Children's Research Hospital has been the event's beneficiary since 1969. The city of Memphis has hosted an event on the PGA Tour each year since 1958.

The Field

Here is a list of the top 70 players who qualified for the FedEx Cup Playoffs and their current point totals:

1: Jon Rahm, 3,320

2: Scottie Scheffler, 3,146

3: Rory McIlroy, 2,304

4: Max Homa, 2,128

5: Wyndham Clark, 1,944

6: Brian Harman, 1,827

7: Viktor Hovland, 1,795

8: Keegan Bradley, 1,774

9: Rickie Fowler, 1,732

10: Tony Finau, 1,655

11: Jason Day, 1,506

12: Nick Taylor, 1,463

13: Patrick Cantlay, 1,443

14: Tom Kim, 1,422

15: Sepp Straka, 1,413

16: Xander Schauffele, 1,406

17: Tyrrell Hatton, 1,381

18: Si Woo Kim, 1,372

19: Sam Burns, 1,335

20: Russell Henley, 1,296

21: Emiliano Grillo, 1,275

22: Collin Morikawa, 1,246

23: Kurt Kitayama, 1,216

24: Adam Schenk, 1,213

25: Taylor Moore, 1,193

26: Tommy Fleetwood, 1,184

27: Denny McCarthy, 1,179

28: Chris Kirk, 1,161

29: Seamus Power, 1,133

30: Corey Conners, 1,103

31: Jordan Spieth, 1,099

32: Sungjae Im, 1,098

33: Justin Rose, 1,088

34: Sahith Theegala, 1,065

35: Lee Hodges, 1,052

36: Matt Fitzpatrick, 1,049

37: Byeong Hun An, 1,041

38: Adam Svensson, 1,014

39: Brendon Todd, 973

40: Eric Cole, 950

41: Andrew Putnam, 918

42: Harris English, 914

43: Patrick Rodgers, 914

44: Adam Hadwin, 908

45: J.T. Poston, 907

46: Tom Hoge, 897

47: Mackenzie Hughes, 890

48: Cameron Young, 889

49: Lucas Glover, 885

50: Nick Hardy, 868

51: Alex Smalley, 864

52: Thomas Detry, 851

53: Taylor Montgomery, 823

54: Davis Riley, 768

55: Brandon Wu, 763

56: Hayden Buckley, 754

57: Hideki Matsuyama, 742

58: Keith Mitchell, 698

59: Mark Hubbard, 697

60: Matt Kuchar, 695

61: Stephan Jaeger, 692

62: Cam Davis, 685

63: Sam Ryder, 675

64: Sam Stevens, 670

65: Aaron Rai, 670

66: Beau Hossler, 658

67: Matt NeSmith, 642

68: Vincent Norrman, 636

69: J.J. Spaun, 634

70: Ben Griffin, 617

The Course​

Located in Memphis, Tenn., TPC Southwind was built in 1988 and was designed by Ron Prichard, in consultation with PGA Tour professionals Fuzzy Zoeller and Hubert Green. It is regarded as one of the more difficult TPC courses. The past four events at TPC Southwind played to 0.69 strokes under par, which puts it right near the middle for tour difficulty.

TPC Southwind itself was first renovated in 2004 to modernize the course and make it more challenging. Eleven new tee boxes were added along with 125 trees and 15 bunkers. Three of the water hazards were also enlarged. Even more changes occurred in 2020. This time, most of the upgrades were related to adding, resizing and re-edging numerous bunkers (only 75 on the course, which is about tour average). The third and seventh holes were extended 15-plus yards. Twelve of the holes are doglegs.

The layout plays as a 7,243-yard par-70. The Zoysiagrass (like East Lake in Atlanta) fairways are some of the narrowest (25 yards wide on average, second narrowest of 46 PGA Tour courses) on tour. The Bermuda rough measures to 2.5 inches and can be tricky and unpredictable. The greens, featuring Champion Bermudagrass, are straightforward and average speed (12 stimpmeter) but are some of the smallest (third on tour) at just 4,300 square feet.

With 11 holes having the danger of water, TPC Southwind has the most “water balls” on tour by far. Since 2003, TPC Southwind’s 6,166 balls in the water are the most at any PGA Tour course during that stretch. The second-highest course is TPC Sawgrass with a huge drop to 5,089.

Aside from the narrower fairways, smaller greens and multitude of water hazards, the layout could be a bit less challenging because the Memphis area saw one of the wettest Julys on record with more than 15 inches of rain over the past month. That will most likely allow the course to play much softer than in other years where it has been mostly dry. Typically, TPC Southwind plays firmer and faster.

TPC Southwind is the only Prichard design on the PGA Tour, although he has worked on several restorations of Donald Ross designs, most notably Aronimink Golf Club, which hosted the 2018 BMW Championship in the FedEx Cup Playoffs and will also host the 2026 PGA Championship. So there are now direct course designer correlations, but TPC Sawgrass (due to the largesse of water holes), East Lake (Zoysia fairways), CC of Jackson (Zoysia), PGA National (similar length), Innisbrook and Concession.

Recent History/Winners

FedEx St. Jude Championship

2022: Will Zalatoris (-15/265); 25-1*

WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational

2021: Abraham Ancer (-16/264); 45-1**

2020: Justin Thomas (-13/267); 12-1

2019: Brooks Koepka (-16/264); 11-1

FedEx St. Jude Classic

2018: Dustin Johnson (-19/261); 7-1

2017: Daniel Berger (-10/270); 28-1

2016: Daniel Berger (-13/267); 33-1

2015: Fabián Gómez (-13/267); 400-1

2014: Ben Crane (-10/270); 175-1

2013: Harris English (-12/268); 66-1

2012: Dustin Johnson (-9/271); 20-1

2011: Harrison Frazar (-13/267); 275-1***

2010: Lee Westwood (-10/270); 12-1****

Playoff win over Sepp Straka - *

Playoff win over Sam Burns and Hideki Matsuyama - **

Playoff win over Robert Karlsson - ***

Playoff win over Robert Garrigus and Robert Karlsson - ****

Statistical Analysis

Last year, 44.8% of strokes gained at TPC Southwind came on approach, which is well above the tour average of 34.7%. Will Zalatoris, last year's winner, ranked first in the field for Strokes Gained: Approach. Justin Thomas (2020) and Dustin Johnson (2018) also ranked second on approach during their wins in Memphis.

Strokes Gained Approach (Last 36 rounds)

1. Scottie Scheffler 56.1
2. Jon Rahm 47.5
3. Lucas Glover 39.2
4. Mark Hubbard 38.2
5. Alex Smalley 38.1
6. Collin Morikawa 37.2
7. Hideki Matsuyama 36.7
8. Russell Henley 34.3
9. Xander Schauffele 30.9
10. Rickie Fowler 30.8
11. Justin Rose 30.2
12. Jordan Spieth 29.7
13. Corey Conners 28.6
14. Rory McIlroy 27.8
15. Viktor Hovland 26.1
16. Aaron Rai 26
17. Tony Finau 25.9
18. Patrick Cantlay 25.2

Short to middle irons are used on 65% of the approach shots here, so we can look at Proximity Gained 125-150, 150-175 and 175-200 yards.

Proximity Gained 125-150 Yards (Last 36 rounds)

1. Jordan Spieth 12.1
2. Jon Rahm 11
3. Tom Kim 10.6
4. Scottie Scheffler 9.9
5. Keegan Bradley 9.8
6. Chris Kirk 9.8
7. Max Homa 9.4
8. Corey Conners 9.1
9. Lucas Glover 8.5
10. Rickie Fowler 7.5
11. Russell Henley 7.5
12. Cameron Young 7.3
13. Vincent Norrman 7.3
14. Viktor Hovland 7
15. Sepp Straka 6.8

Proximity Gained 150-175 Yards (Last 36 rounds)

1. Tom Hoge 15.6
2. Emiliano Grillo 14.9
3. Xander Schauffele 14.4
4. Aaron Rai 14
5. Brandon Wu 13.6
6. Si Woo Kim 12.9
7. Viktor Hovland 11
8. Adam Schenk 10.8
9. Jon Rahm 10.7
10. Sepp Straka 10.1
11. Jordan Spieth 10
12. Corey Conners 9.5
13. Alex Smalley 9.5
14. Seamus Power 8.7
15. Justin Rose 7.9
16. Keith Mitchell 7.8
17. Hayden Buckley 7.8
18. Patrick Cantlay 7.8

Proximity Gained 175-200 Yards (Last 36 rounds)

1. Scottie Scheffler 21.7
2. Viktor Hovland 18.6
3. Hideki Matsuyama 15.9
4. Jon Rahm 14.2
5. Lucas Glover 14
6. Matthew NeSmith 10.6
7. Emiliano Grillo 10.5
8. Collin Morikawa 9.4
9. Rory McIlroy 9.2
10. Sam Ryder 9
11. Stephan Jaeger 9
12. Kurt Kitayama 8.9
13. Wyndham Clark 8

Note: Numbers indicate Average Feet Gained Per Shot from the Distance.

Many players are cutting corners over the edges of doglegs. Over the last two years, distance off the tee has averaged over 294 yards, which is the highest two-year span in the existence of this course as a PGA Tour event. So distance is becoming more important, but so is finding these narrow fairways and avoiding hazards.

Strokes Gained Off The Tee (Last 36 rounds)

1. Scottie Scheffler 41.2
2. Patrick Cantlay 38.3
3. Viktor Hovland 31.4
4. Rory McIlroy 29.7
5. Byeong Hun An 27
6. Keith Mitchell 22.8
7. Cam Davis 22.7
8. Corey Conners 21.6
9. Tyrrell Hatton 21.5
10. Si Woo Kim 21.5
11. Hayden Buckley 21.4
12. Lucas Glover 20.4
13. Cameron Young 19.4
14. Vincent Norrman 19.3
15. Tommy Fleetwood 19

Good Drives Gained (Last 36 rounds)

1. Lucas Glover 46.9
2. Matthew NeSmith 44.4
3. Collin Morikawa 44.3
4. Scottie Scheffler 38.8
5. Russell Henley 38.3
6. Emiliano Grillo 35.3
7. Si Woo Kim 35.1
8. Patrick Cantlay 31.9
9. Hideki Matsuyama 29.6
10. Tom Kim 29.4
11. Xander Schauffele 29.4
12. Jon Rahm 29.3
13. Viktor Hovland 29.1
14. Brian Harman 27.9
15. Alex Smalley 26.9
16. Denny McCarthy 26.2

Fairways Gained (Last 36 rounds)

1. Si Woo Kim 61.8
2. Lucas Glover 59.7
3. Aaron Rai 55.5
4. Russell Henley 52.9
5. Brendon Todd 50.8
6. Sepp Straka 44.4
7. Patrick Cantlay 43
8. Matthew NeSmith 37.7
9. Collin Morikawa 37.2
10. J.J Spaun 34.6
11. Andrew Putnam 30.1
12. Tom Kim 29.4
13. Brian Harman 27.6
14. Hayden Buckley 27.4
15. Denny McCarthy 25.3
16. Alex Smalley 24.2

The unpredictable rough and the numerous tight lies that surround the green complexes make gaining strokes around these greens among the toughest on tour.

Strokes Gained Around The Green (Last 36 rounds)

1. Scottie Scheffler 24.9
2. Rickie Fowler 21.3
3. Brendon Todd 20.9
4. Jason Day 17.1
5. Tommy Fleetwood 14.3
6. Tony Finau 13.8
7. Justin Rose 13.6
8. Chris Kirk 13
9. Matt Kuchar 12.4
10. Ben Griffin 12.2
11. Rory McIlroy 11.7
12. Beau Hossler 10.9
13. Wyndham Clark 10.5
14. Byeong Hun An 10.3

Scrambling Gained (Last 36 rounds)

1. J.T. Poston 19.5
2. Adam Hadwin 14.7
3. Matt Kuchar 14.3
4. Taylor Moore 13.5
5. Denny McCarthy 12.8
6. Taylor Montgomery 12.7
7. Wyndham Clark 12.6
8. Jason Day 12.3
9. Chris Kirk 11.2
10. Cam Davis 10.7
11. Brendon Todd 10.6
12. Sam Burns 10.2
13. Tony Finau 10

Eight of the 12 par-4s at TPC Southwind are 445 yards or longer.

Strokes Gained Par-4s 450-500 Yards (Last 36 rounds)

1. Rory McIlroy 30.2
2. Xander Schauffele 25
3. Tyrrell Hatton 22.6
4. Tommy Fleetwood 21.4
5. Wyndham Clark 21.3
6. Scottie Scheffler 20.5
7. Patrick Cantlay 19.8
8. Hideki Matsuyama 19.1
9. Viktor Hovland 18.8
10. Beau Hossler 17.7
11. J.T. Poston 17.1
12. Jason Day 16.4
13. Lee Hodges 16.3
14. Byeong Hun An 15.6
15. Rickie Fowler 15.6
16. Justin Rose 15.2

Opportunities Gained is a statistic that can often help us identify players that are undervalued based on their scoring ability. It measures the amount of birdie looks a player generates inside 15 feet per round.

Opportunities Gained (Last 36 rounds)

1. Hideki Matsuyama 45
2. Scottie Scheffler 39.4
3. Lucas Glover 37.3
4. Jon Rahm 35.7
5. Alex Smalley 35
6. Collin Morikawa 28.2
7. Corey Conners 28
8. Patrick Cantlay 27.6
9. Keegan Bradley 27
10. Eric Cole 27
11. Rory McIlroy 26.3
12. Sungjae Im 25.6
13. Justin Rose 25
14. Tom Hoge 24.4
15. Chris Kirk 24
16. Stephan Jaeger 24

Hitting iron shots and chipping out of Bermuda rough is different from Bluegrass rough. So we can look at players who have the strongest tee-to-green games on Bermuda.

Strokes Gained Tee To Green — Bermuda courses (Last 36 rounds)

1. Scottie Scheffler 85.8
2. Tony Finau 53.7
3. Tyrrell Hatton 51.9
4. Xander Schauffele 50.4
5. Rory McIlroy 49.2
6. Tommy Fleetwood 48.4
7. Wyndham Clark 47.5
8. Tom Kim 47.4
9. Collin Morikawa 47
10. Si Woo Kim 42.8
11. Alex Smalley 41.5
12. Sungjae Im 41.3
13. Corey Conners 39.4
14. Jon Rahm 35.7
15. Patrick Cantlay 35.1

The greens are very pure at TPC Southwind, so the field is fairly level in terms of putting, but we can still examine the best Bermuda putters.

Strokes Gained Putting — Bermuda Greens (Last 36 rounds)

1. Taylor Montgomery 31.2
2. Sam Burns 29.9
3. Taylor Moore 29.6
4. Andrew Putnam 27.6
5. Thomas Detry 26.8
6. Tyrrell Hatton 25.3
7. Ben Griffin 22.6
8. Adam Schenk 21.1
9. Denny McCarthy 20.6
10. Sam Ryder 19.8
11. Tommy Fleetwood 18.8
12. Eric Cole 18.2
13. Brendon Todd 18.1
14. Jon Rahm 17.8
15. Matt Fitzpatrick 17.2
16. Matt Kuchar 17
17. Sahith Theegala 16.5
18. Jason Day 16

Selections

Collin Morikawa (26-1, Circa Sports)

Lucas Glover broke a two-year winless drought on Sunday, so perhaps this is Morikawa's week to do the same.

Morikawa finished fifth here last year and has gained on ball striking in all three appearances here.

He is sixth for Approach and third for Good Drives Gained over the last 36 rounds.

Tommy Fleetwood (30-1, BetRivers)

Other than missing the cut at the Travelers, Fleetwood has threatened to win all summer.

A playoff loss/runner-up in Canada, fifth at the U.S. Open, sixth at the Scottish Open and 10th at the British Open is Fleetwood's form for the summer.

Sam Burns (38-1, Circa Sports)

"Bermuda Burns" was the runner-up here two years ago.

All five of Burns’ PGA Tour victories have come in the South and four of the five on Bermuda greens.

Like several players this week, Burns is trying to cement his status on the U.S. Ryder Cup team.

Tony Finau (40-1, Caesars Sportsbook)

Speaking of the Ryder Cup, Finau finds himself just 19th in the points, so he needs to impress captain Zach Johnson.

Finau seemed to finally get the hang of this course last year with his best-ever finish of T-5 and posted his first top 10 in more than three months just two weeks ago at the 3M Open, so perhaps he is peaking at the right time.

Cameron Young (42-1, Circa Sports)

Young's Wake Forest teammate Will Zalatoris earned his first PGA Tour victory here in Memphis last year, so Young could be our walk down "narrative street" this week.

He missed the cut at the 3M two weeks ago, but the ball striking appears to have returned to elite form with a T-6 at the John Deere and a T-8 at the British Open. In fact, he gained more than 16 strokes ball striking at Royal Liverpool but putted poorly on the super-slow greens. These greens will be more to his liking.

Matchups (43-31-7; 1-0-1 last week)

Collin Morikawa -130 over Max Homa (BetMGM)

Emiliano Grillo -130 over Lucas Glover (BetMGM)

Tommy Fleetwood -135 over Matt Fitzpatrick (South Point)

Cameron Young -105 over Russell Henley (South Point)

Placement market wagers and any other selections in the golf world (AIG Women's Open, LIV Bedminster) will be available Wednesday at VSiN.com/picks