Best bets for the BMW Championship

BMW Championship

Lucas Glover sweated his way to a victory in the Memphis heat last weekend in the FedEx St. Jude Championship at a pre-tournament price of 75-1. Glover has won in back-to-back weeks and has vaulted up to fourth in the FedEx Cup point standings and has gone from 117th in the OWGR to 30th in two weeks. Despite losing -3.18 strokes tee to green (including almost three full strokes on approach), Glover gained almost three strokes with the putter in Sunday's final round to stymie Patrick Cantlay in the playoff.

Cantlay shot the low round of the day Sunday with a bogey-free 64 but found the water on the first playoff hole and could not save par. On the other hand, Glover shook off his own water ball Sunday — his tee shot on the par-3 14th — salvaging bogey with a 30-footer.

Our nearest pursuer was Tommy Fleetwood, who had a chance to make the playoff with a birdie at 18 but fell one shot short to finish third along with Rory McIlroy. Fleetwood now has 22 top-5 finishes on the PGA Tour without a victory and the six-time DP World Tour winner is the first player on the tour to surpass $20 million in career earnings without a win.

Taylor Moore finished fifth while a seven-way tie for sixth rounded out the top 10. Those seven were Jordan Spieth, Cam Davis, Max Homa, Corey Conners, Russell Henley, Sungjae Im and Adam Schenk.

This week, the PGA Tour and the FedEx Cup Playoffs move to Chicago for the BMW Championship at Olympia Fields Country Club.

McIlroy (15-2), the three-time FedEx Cup winner, sits third in the point standings and has not finished outside the top 10 in eight straight events, dating to the Wells Fargo the first week of May.

Scottie Scheffler (8-1) had a streak of eight consecutive top-5 or better finishes that spanned the Byron Nelson through the Scottish Open, but he has finished 23rd and 31st in his last two events courtesy of a shaky putter that has plagued him all season. He ranked 62nd out of 70 players for Strokes Gained: Putting last week.

The current FedEx Cup points leader, and a man who has a win on this course (2020 BMW Championship), is Jon Rahm (10-1). Rahm shot a 3-over first round on Thursday but did shoot 8 under over his last three rounds to finish T-37 in Memphis.

Cantlay (10-1) is the two-time defending champion of this event having won at Caves Valley in 2021 and at Wilmington last year.

Viktor Hovland (16-1) ranked second in the field last week for Strokes Gained: Approach but settled for T-13 despite being on the periphery of contention on Sunday.

Following in the market are Xander Schauffele (18-1), Collin Morikawa (22-1), Fleetwood (22-1), Homa (25-1), Spieth (28-1), Tyrrell Hatton (30-1), Im (35-1), Glover (35-1) and Hideki Matsuyama (35-1), who along with Davis (70-1), played his way into this week's field bumping Mackenzie Hughes and Nick Hardy out of the top 50 in the FedEx Cup point standings. This week's top 50 also have locked themselves into next year's "signature events."

The Event

​The BMW Championship serves as the penultimate event of the FedEx Cup Playoffs with the top 50 in the point standings playing this week. While this event started in 2007, its history dates back a long way. The event originated as the Western Open in 1889, running until 2006. The Western was predominantly played in the Chicago area at venues such as Cog Hill in Lemont and Butler National in Oak Brook. The Western Golf Association, based in Glenview, Ill., still serves as an organizer for this event and Chicago is still its most regular stop, but the BMW now rotates around the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic regions.

There is no 36-hole cut this week. The top 30 in the FedEx Cup standings after this event move on to the Tour Championship in Atlanta next week.

The Field

Here is this week's field of 50 players and their current rankings and point tallies in the FedEx Cup Playoffs.

1. Jon Rahm 3385.72

2. Scottie Scheffler 3237.94

3. Rory McIlroy 2954.10

4. Lucas Glover 2884.86

5. Patrick Cantlay 2642.81

6. Max Homa 2451.27

7. Viktor Hovland 2024.43

8. Wyndham Clark 1957.41

9. Brian Harman 1919.41

10. Tommy Fleetwood 1834.16

11. Keegan Bradley 1817.90

12. Rickie Fowler 1752.35

13. Tony Finau 1672.00

14. Taylor Moore 1632.81

15. Russell Henley 1618.36

16. Nick Taylor 1593.41

17. Si Woo Kim 1572.06

18. Tom Kim 1552.03

19. Xander Schauffele 1536.02

20. Adam Schenk 1535.81

21. Jason Day 1531.43

22. Collin Morikawa 1475.58

23. Emiliano Grillo 1442.89

24. Sepp Straka 1430.57

25. Corey Conners 1426.36

26. Tyrrell Hatton 1425.23

27. Jordan Spieth 1422.21

28. Sungjae Im 1420.42

29. Chris Kirk 1361.26

30. Sam Burns 1360.92

31. Sahith Theegala 1294.32

32. Justin Rose 1255.72

33. Kurt Kitayama 1241.58

34. Denny McCarthy 1192.45

35. Seamus Power 1147.05

36. Lee Hodges 1144.16

37. Adam Hadwin 1108.26

38. Byeong Hun An 1107.34

39. Adam Svensson 1079.91

40. Matt Fitzpatrick 1062.56

41. Andrew Putnam 1047.63

42. Eric Cole 1041.85

43. J.T. Poston 1036.72

44. Brendon Todd 1017.30

45. Cam Davis 1007.54

46. Cameron Young 981.40

47. Hideki Matsuyama 941.70

48. Tom Hoge 940.59

49. Harris English 939.59

50. Patrick Rodgers 939.27

The Course

This is the second time Olympia Fields Country Club will serve as the venue for the BMW Championship, the first coming in 2020. It's located in Olympia Fields, about 25 miles south of downtown Chicago. The North Course has hosted numerous major championships: 1925 and 1961 PGA, 1928 and 2003 U.S. Open, 1997 U.S. Senior Open, 2015 U.S. Amateur, 2017 Women's PGA Championship. It also annually hosts one of the most competitive college golf events, the Fighting Illini Invitational. ​Olympia Fields was founded in 1915. The first club president was Hall of Fame football coach Amos Alonzo Stagg, who was the head coach at the University of Chicago. Two-time British Open champion (1887, 1889) and Scottish golfer Willie Park Jr. was the original course designer.

The course has received numerous toughening renovations, the latest being in 2014. The track plays as a par-70 of 7,366 yards (sixth longest on this year's PGA Tour schedule). It is a tight, classical parklands with tight Bentgrass/Poa Annua fairways at 26 yards on average (second narrowest on tour). The Kentucky Bluegrass rough is four to five inches high and will punish errant tee shots. In addition to the narrow fairways and thick rough, there are strategically placed deep fairway bunkers. Water comes into play on only five holes. The tabletop greens are fast (12.5 stimpmeter) and are Bentgrass/Poa Annua. The greens are firm and sloping, and some of the smaller ones on tour (5,238 square feet on average).

In 2020, Olympia Fields averaged +1.82 over par (Rahm won at -4) and it played as the fifth-toughest course over the last four years. Only five players broke par that entire week.

While there is only one par-4 longer than 475 yards, eight of them play at 445 yards or longer. In 2020, not a single par-4 played under par. Led by the mammoth 251-yard eighth hole, the par-3s are among the most challenging on tour, averaging 3.12 strokes. Both par-5s measure over 600 yards and are among the toughest group of par-5s, averaging 4.87 with a Birdie or Better rate of only 29%.

Comparative or correlated courses to Olympia Fields include Winged Foot, Oak Hill, Bethpage Black, Torrey Pines South, Quail Hollow, Muirfield Village and TPC Potomac.

BMW Championship Recent History

2022: Patrick Cantlay (-14/270); Wilmington; 16-1

2021: Patrick Cantlay (-27/261); Caves Valley; 25-1*

2020: Jon Rahm (-4/276); Olympia Fields; 10-1**

2019: Justin Thomas (-25/263); Medinah; 16-1

2018: Keegan Bradley (-20/260); Aronimink; 140-1***

2017: Marc Leishman (-23/261); Conway Farms; 45-1

2016: Dustin Johnson (-23/265); Crooked Stick; 10-1

2015: Jason Day (-22/262); Conway Farms; 15-2

2014: Billy Horschel (-14/266); Cherry Hills; 66-1

2013: Zach Johnson (-16/268); Conway Farms; 40-1

2012: Rory McIlroy (-20/268); Crooked Stick; 7-1

2011: Justin Rose (-13/271); Cog Hill; 66-1

2010: Dustin Johnson (-9/275); Cog Hill; 33-1

Playoff win over Bryson DeChambeau - *

Playoff win over Dustin Johnson - **

Playoff win over Justin Rose - ***

Trends and Angles

Of this week's field of 50 players, 24 of them played at Olympia Fields in the 2020 BMW Championship. Here is how they fared:

1st - Jon Rahm (-4)

T-3 - Hideki Matsuyama (-2)

5th - Tony Finau (-1)

T-6 - Matt Fitzpatrick (E)

T-8 - Brendon Todd (+1)

T-12 - Brian Harman, Rory McIlroy, Byeong Hun An, Patrick Cantlay (+3)

T-16 - Tyrrell Hatton (+4)

T-20 - Scottie Scheffler, Collin Morikawa (+5)

T-25 - Russell Henley, Xander Schauffele (+6)

T-33 - Corey Conners (+7)

T-40 - Adam Hadwin, Harris English, Viktor Hovland (+8)

T-51 - Nick Taylor (+11)

T-56 - Sungjae Im (+12)

T-59 - Max Homa, J.T. Poston (+13)

64th - Jason Day (+14)

T-65 - Tom Hoge (+15)

Statistical Analysis

In 2020, Olympia Fields ranked seventh out of 29 courses in approach difficulty and had the third-toughest greens to hit on the PGA Tour.

Strokes Gained Approach (Last 36 rounds)

1. Scottie Scheffler 54.9
2. Jon Rahm 42.1
3. Russell Henley 37.3
4. Lucas Glover 35.7
5. Hideki Matsuyama 35.1
6. Collin Morikawa 33.2
7. Xander Schauffele 29.4
8. Rory McIlroy 29
9. Adam Schenk 28.8
10. Justin Rose 27.4
11. Rickie Fowler 27.1
12. Viktor Hovland 26.9
13. Emiliano Grillo 26.3
14. Tony Finau 23.5
15. Patrick Cantlay 23.2
16. Corey Conners 23.1

In 2020, driver was used off the tee over 75% of the time, so there was a larger amount of shorter to middle iron shots than one would expect on a course of this length.

Proximity Gained 125-150 Yards (Last 36 rounds)

1. Jordan Spieth 11.1
2. Scottie Scheffler 9.9
3. Jon Rahm 9.7
4. Keegan Bradley 9.2
5. Tom Kim 9
6. Max Homa 8
7. Chris Kirk 8
8. Lucas Glover 7.9
9. Russell Henley 7.5
10. Cam Davis 7.5
11. Justin Rose 6.9
12. Collin Morikawa 6.7
13. Rickie Fowler 6.7
14. Viktor Hovland 6.2
15. Proximity Gained 150-175 Yards (Last 36 rounds)
16. Emiliano Grillo 13.8
17. Viktor Hovland 13.5
18. Adam Schenk 11.8
19. Tom Hoge 11.5
20. Sepp Straka 10.6
21. Sam Burns 10.5
22. Jordan Spieth 9.9
23. Xander Schauffele 9.8
24. Si Woo Kim 9.1
25. Collin Morikawa 8.2
26. Patrick Cantlay 8.2
27. Jon Rahm 7.8
28. Justin Rose 7
29. Hideki Matsuyama 7

Note: Numbers indicate the average feet gained per shot toward the hole from the distance range.

In 2020, Driving Accuracy at Olympia Fields was only 48% (the lowest on tour, compared with the Tour average of 62%. Even the most accurate hitters find the rough over half the time here. This course is bombs away and three of the top six in Driving Distance finished top 5 on the leaderboard in 2020 (Rahm, D. Johnson, Finau).

Driving Distance Gained (Last 36 rounds)

1. Rory McIlroy 21.3
2. Byeong Hun An 18.8
3. Cameron Young 14.8
4. Wyndham Clark 11.8
5. Scottie Scheffler 11.6
6. Jon Rahm 10.7
7. Sam Burns 10.3
8. Taylor Moore 9.6
9. Cam Davis 8.4
10. Tommy Fleetwood 7.6
11. Viktor Hovland 6.8
12. Rickie Fowler 6.6
13. Patrick Rodgers 6.2
14. Tyrrell Hatton 6.2

Note: Average yards gained per drive relative to the field.

While distance is clearly an advantage, several players (Fitzpatrick, Todd, Sebastian Munoz, Mackenzie Hughes, and Lanto Griffin) lost strokes to the field in the category in 2020, so shorter hitters can compete here. Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee includes both distance and accuracy as does Total Driving.

Strokes Gained Off The Tee (Last 36 rounds)

1. Scottie Scheffler 38
2. Patrick Cantlay 36.6
3. Rory McIlroy 30.7
4. Byeong Hun An 30.7
5. Si Woo Kim 24.4
6. Corey Conners 23
7. Viktor Hovland 22.6
8. Tommy Fleetwood 21.3
9. Lucas Glover 21.2
10. Cameron Davis 20.8
11. Cameron Young 19.8
12. Tyrrell Hatton 19.2
13. Sungjae Im 16.6
14. Collin Morikawa 16.1

Total Driving (2022-23 PGA Tour season)

1. Patrick Cantlay 54
2. Scottie Scheffler 76
3. Viktor Hovland 86
4. Jon Rahm 113
5. Jason Day 119
6. Tony Finau 121
7. Si Woo Kim 125
8. Sepp Straka 129
9. Cameron Young 132
10. Tom Kim 133
11. Tyrrell Hatton 137
12. Rickie Fowler 139
13. Collin Morikawa 144
14. Lucas Glover 145
15. Sam Burns 147
16. Sungjae Im 150

In 2020, Olympia Fields ranked seventh out of 29 courses in strokes gained around-the-green difficulty. These are smaller greens, as well, so being on point with the short game is paramount.

Strokes Gained Around The Green (Last 36 rounds)

1. Scottie Scheffler 22.4
2. Rickie Fowler 20.5
3. Brendon Todd 18.9
4. Jason Day 14.6
5. Tony Finau 13.3
6. Justin Rose 12.7
7. Chris Kirk 11.2
8. Matt Fitzpatrick 11.1
9. Byeong Hun An 10.8
10. Tommy Fleetwood 10.6
11. Jordan Spieth 10.1
12. Cam Davis 10

Scrambling Gained (Last 36 rounds)

1. J.T. Poston 18.3
2. Brendon Todd 14.2
3. Chris Kirk 13
4. Adam Hadwin 12.9
5. Denny McCarthy 12.8
6. Taylor Moore 11.6
7. Brian Harman 11.2
8. Patrick Cantlay 10
9. Jordan Spieth 9.9
10. Tyrrell Hatton 9.9
11. Sam Burns 9.7
12. Wyndham Clark 9.3
13. Matt Fitzpatrick 9.2
14. Byeong Hun An 9.1
15. Jason Day 9.1
16. Justin Rose 9

The greens at Olympia Fields have plenty of contours and are firm and fast and made up of Bentgrass/Poa Annua (mostly Bentgrass).

Strokes Gained Putting Bentgrass/Poa Annua (Last 36 rounds)

1. Denny McCarthy 44.5
2. Andrew Putnam 31.5
3. Xander Schauffele 30.4
4. Harris English 30.3
5. Brendon Todd 29.5
6. Max Homa 28.8
7. Keegan Bradley 25
8. J.T. Poston 24.3
9. Patrick Cantlay 24
10. Tyrrell Hatton 23.9
11. Justin Rose 22.8
12. Eric Cole 22.5
13. Viktor Hovland 21.1

Strokes Gained Putting Firm and Fast Greens (Last 36 rounds)

1. Denny McCarthy 32.3
2. Max Homa 27.8
3. Harris English 26
4. Taylor Moore 24.3
5. Brendon Todd 22.6
6. Sam Burns 21.7
7. Andrew Putnam 20.6
8. Matt Fitzpatrick 18.3
9. Tommy Fleetwood 15.8
10. Jon Rahm 15.3
11. Rickie Fowler 15.3
12. Jason Day 15.3
13. Justin Rose 14.7
14. Viktor Hovland 14.5

Olympia Fields could play a little bit softer than last time around, but plenty of over-par scores lurk all over the course.

Bogey Avoidance (Last 36 rounds)

1. Tommy Fleetwood 36.8
2. Tyrrell Hatton 30.9
3. Jason Day 30.3
4. Brian Harman 29.5
5. Scottie Scheffler 29.5
6. Hideki Matsuyama 27.7
7. Lucas Glover 26.8
8. Patrick Cantlay 26.5
9. Byeong Hun An 25.5
10. Jordan Spieth 23.6
11. Xander Schauffele 23.3
12. Rory McIlroy 22.7
13. Max Homa 22.7
14. Wyndham Clark 22.4
15. Russell Henley 21.1
16. J.T. Poston 20

Strokes Gained Difficult Scoring Conditions (Last 36 rounds)

1. Scottie Scheffler 103.6
2. Rory McIlroy 89
3. Viktor Hovland 79.1
4. Wyndham Clark 68.9
5. Jon Rahm 62.7
6. Xander Schauffele 61.6
7. Tommy Fleetwood 61.1
8. Patrick Cantlay 60.7
9. Collin Morikawa 57.4
10. Matt Fitzpatrick 57.2
11. Tyrrell Hatton 54.7
12. Jordan Spieth 53.3
13. Tom Kim 52
14. Max Homa 50.1

Selections

Rory McIlroy (7-1, BetMGM)

McIlroy has not finished outside the top 10 in any event since the Wells Fargo the first weekend in May.

In McIlroy’s finish of third last week at the FedEx St. Jude, he ranked first for Driving Distance, 12th for Driving Accuracy and fourth for Greens in Regulation along with second for Off the Tee, fourth for Approach, third for Tee to Green.

The FedEx Cup matters to him as evidenced by winning it on three occasions. A win here puts him in the driver's seat to earn a fourth while earning his 25th career PGA Tour victory to boot.

Viktor Hovland (17-1, Circa Sports)

Hovland finished 10th at TPC Southwind after opening his tournament with a 2-over 72 in the first round. He went on to fire rounds of 64, 65 and 69 over the next three days.

The Norwegian ranks third in this field for Total Driving on the season but had his worst performance statistically off the tee for his entire career last week. That clearly looks like an outlier.

Collin Morikawa (28-1, Boyd Sports)

Morikawa finished T-13 last week but never quite got it going after a first-round 65.

Perhaps he had more on his mind considering his ties to Maui and seeing the devastation caused by the deadly wildfires there. His grandparents were from Lahaina and owned the Morikawa Restaurant there for many years.

Cameron Young (40-1, BetMGM)

Young started and finished well last week with bookend rounds of 67 but stalled out in Rounds 2 and 3.

His length should be a great fit at Olympia Fields.

Tony Finau (50-1, Circa Sports)

No one would have thought Finau would be on the bubble to make the Ryder Cup team, but that is where he potentially finds himself.

Although he has had a down second half of 2023, Finau still has five victories in two years.

He has an excellent record on classical courses, including a fifth here in 2020.

Matchups (44-34-7; 1-3 last week)

Matt Fitzpatrick -115 over Lucas Glover (BetMGM)

Tony Finau -120 over Russell Henley (South Point)

Viktor Hovland -125 over Tommy Fleetwood (BetMGM)

Nick Taylor -125 over Seamus Power (BetMGM)

Cameron Young -125 over Sam Burns (BetMGM)