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Getaway Day Unders and Sunday MLB Sharp Report

May 16, 2021 12:47 AM

One trend we've seen so far this MLB season is the stellar performance of Sunday unders. On the last day of the week, unders are 46-33 (58.2%). This may not seem that impressive, but on the other six days of the week the under is 241-243-14 (49.8%). This means that Sunday unders are cashing at a 8.4% higher clip than the rest of the week. One logical explanation for this is the getaway day factor: teams are wrapping up their weekend series and looking to move on. Maybe they aren't as invested. Or maybe the fact that almost every Sunday game is played during the day has something to do with it. Or maybe it's the quick day-game turnaround after a Saturday night game. Either way, this edge is something to keep in mind when you consider playing totals today. 

The best Under systems this season (all seven days included) include taking the under with the total is 8.5 or higher (155-129, 55%) and Interleague unders (39-28 (58%). Also, inflated unders (taking the under when the total rises at least a half run) have gone 51-33 (61%). 

Today the weekend wraps up with 15 MLB games, 15 NBA games and 4 NHL Stanley Cup playoff games. For extensive Sunday betting analysis and line move updates be sure to join Michael Lombardi, Patrick Meagher and myself this morning from 10 a.m. ET to noon on The Lombardi Line. We'll also be joined by VSiN's Will Hill along with our good friend Thomas Gable at the Borgata in Atlantic City.

In the meantime, let's discuss a trio of MLB games today receiving notable sharp action...

1:07 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies (21-19) at Toronto Blue Jays (21-17)

These Interleague opponents have split the first two games of this three-game series. The Phillies took the opener 5-1 as + 135 dogs and the Jays bounced back with a 4-0 win on Saturday as + 130 dogs. In this afternoon's rubber match, the Phillies start righty Chase Anderson (2-3, 5.23 ERA) and the Jays counter with lefty Robbie Ray (1-1, 3.38 ERA). This line opened with Toronto listed as a -145 home favorite and the Phillies a + 135 road dog. Respected money has poured in on the Jays, steaming this line up from Toronto -145 to -160. Teams off a win receiving 15-cents or more steam in their favor are 53-38 (58%) this season. Interleague teams with line moves in their favor have gone 26-18 (59%). The Jays are + 34 in run differential this season. The Phillies are -5. Toronto is 8-5 at home while Philadelphia is 8-13 on the road. 

1:10 p.m. ET: Chicago Cubs (18-20) at Detroit Tigers (14-25)

The Cubs took care of business in the series opener, winning 4-2 as -145 favorites. Then we saw the Tigers steal a 9-8 win in extras on Saturday, cashing as + 145 home dogs. In today's series finale, the Cubs send out righty Kyle Hendricks (2-4, 6.23 ERA) and the Tigers give the ball to lefty Matthew Boyd (2-3, 2.94 ERA). This line opened with Chicago listed as a modest -130 road favorite and Detroit a + 120 home dog. The public is relatively split. On the one hand, the Cubs have a better record. But the Tigers seem to have a pitching advantage on paper. Despite this virtual split, we've seen Chicago tick up from -130 to -140. This signals some respected money backing Chicago, which looks to bounce back after blowing a lead in extra innings yesterday. Chicago has value as a favorite with a low total (9). Chicago is 8-3 against left handed starting pitchers this season (just 10-17 against righties). We've also seen some under money show up, hitting the opener of 8.5 and dropping the total to 8. The forecast calls for mid 60s with 5 MPH winds blowing in from right field. Both teams have been profitable to the under this season, with Chicago 20-17-1 and Detroit 22-17. 

4:10 p.m. ET: Washington Nationals (15-20) at Arizona Diamondbacks (18-22)

The Nationals embarrassed the Diamondbacks 17-2 in the opener, coasting as -200 road favorites. But then we saw the Snakes bite back on Saturday, winning 11-4 as + 110 home dogs. In this afternoon's rubber match, the Nats tap righty Erick Fedde (2-4, 5.29 ERA) and the Snakes counter with fellow righty Luke Weaver (2-3, 5.00 ERA). This line opened with Washington listed as a slight -117 road favorite and Arizona a + 107 home dog. The public doesn't know who to back, yet we've seen Washington dip from -117 to -108. This indicates some sharp action on Arizona, with pros backing the home team off a win (+ 107 to -102). Essentially we are looking at a virtual pick'em after opening with Washington as the clear favorite. Arizona has value as a dog off a win and a dog with a high total (9.5). More expected runs scored leads to more variance and upset opportunities. The total is 9.5 and the under is juiced to -120. This signals some under liability and a possible fall to 9. When the total is 8.5 or higher, the under is 154-126 (55%) this season. 

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