There are a lot of moving parts to a handicap, but one that increases in importance at this time of year is the weather. It is getting colder across the country. As Old Man Winter’s icy grip starts to take hold, wind and precipitation often come along with it. If you don’t think weather has that big of an impact, or think that it is overblown, take a look at MACtion this week.
Three of the four games stayed under the closing total. You only lost or pushed with Northern Illinois vs. Buffalo if you got the worst of it. All four totals moved down rather significantly, as wind and rain were common themes throughout the Great Lakes and the Midwest.
Josh Appelbaum talked about it during my segment with the guys on Betting Across America on Wednesday. With winds of 10 or more mph and a line move down on the total, the Under is 42-23 (65%) on the season.
For today, I figured I’d look at a few games in bullet point fashion where weather could be a factor this week:
Iowa State at Oklahoma – Forecasted winds 13-19 mph with gusts up to 23 mph; total basically stayed 59.5 to this point
Purdue vs. Northwestern (Wrigley Field) – Forecasted winds 10-15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph; total has come down from 48.5 (Circa opener was 51.5) to as low as 47
Georgia Tech at Notre Dame – Forecasted winds 10-15, gusts up to 20; total about where it opened at 59.5 (cold weather for a southern team could be tricky, temps low 40s, upper 30s wind chill)
UConn at UCF – Forecasted winds 15-20 mph, expected to tail off throughout the game; total down from 57 to 55.5
Kansas at TCU – Forecasted winds 14-18 mph, gusts into the 20s; total dropped from 66.5 to 64.5
Temple at Tulsa – Forecasted winds 10-25 mph, gusts up to 25 mph; total sitting 51
North Texas at FIU – Chance of showers and storms, forecasted winds 15-20 mph; total down from 60 to 57.5
Virginia Tech at Miami – Similar forecast, total actually up from 53.5 to 56
Colorado State at Hawaii – Scattered showers, winds 14-20 mph; total sitting 54
Not every wind game is an automatic under play, but I would certainly advise against playing the over. Even if you have two proficient running teams, the defenses don’t have to respect the pass as much, which leads to a flooded box and more emphasis on the run.
I would say that Tuesday night into Wednesday are when the speculation bets start about the weather and totals. It’s been an unseasonably warm November in a lot of places, so we haven’t had as many chances this season, but keep this in mind the next two weeks and file it away for next season.