Happy Fade the Public Friday! Today we have a loaded betting menu on tap, featuring 15 MLB games and a handful of College Football games. For an updated breakdown of Friday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be joining The Lombardi Line at 1:45 p.m. ET to offer a market update and then co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 5 p.m. ET.
In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for a trio of Friday night matchups...
7:30 p.m. ET: Kansas (1-0) at Coastal Carolina (1-0, ranked 17th)
Both of these non-conference opponents are coming off season opening wins. Kansas edged South Dakota 17-14, although they failed to cover as 11.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Coastal Carolina crushed Citadel 52-14, covering as 33.5-point home favorites. This matchup opened with Coastal listed as a 27-point home favorite. The public expects a blowout and is happily laying the points with Coastal at home. However, despite this lopsided support we've seen Coastal fall from -27 to -26.5. This signals some wiseguy action on Kansas getting big points. The Jayhawks have value as a contrarian play in a heavily bet primetime game and a buy-low unranked road dog against a ranked opponent. Over the past decade, unranked road dogs vs ranked opponents on Friday nights are 38-27 ATS (58.5%). We could also be looking at a lower-scoring game. This total opened at 53 and has fallen to 52.5 despite the public hammering the over. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the under. Correlative betting provides value to a big dog in a low total game.
9:30 p.m. ET: UTEP (2-0) at Boise State (0-1)
UTEP already has a pair of wins under their belt, beating New Mexico State 30-3 as 9.5-point road favorites and then taking down Bethune Cookman 38-28 last week, although they failed to cover as 20.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Boise State is looking to bounce back from a season opening loss to Central Florida 36-31, although they covered as 6.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Boise State listed as a big 27-point home favorite. The public is split down the middle and doesn't know whether to take the points or lay them. In a vacuum, a line shouldn't move at all if the tickets are even. But we've seen Boise Fall from -27 to -26. This indicates some sharp money grabbing undefeated UTEP plus the points (+ 27 to + 26). We've also seen some over money show up, forcing oddsmakers to adjust the total up from 55 to 56.5.
8:10 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Angels (69-71) at Houston Astros (81-58)
This AL West showdown is one of the most compelling matchups on Friday night's slate. Why? Because it's Ohtani Day. The Angels are largely out of the playoff picture, as they trail the 2nd Wild Card spot by 9-games. Meanwhile the Astros lead the division by 5.5-games over the second place Mariners. In tonight's series opener, the Angels hand the ball to two-way star Shohei Ohtani (9-1, 2.97 ERA) and the Astros counter with lefty Framber Valdez (9-5, 3.08 ERA). This line opened with Houston listed as a -180 home favorite and Los Angeles a + 165 road dog. The public can't believe they're getting such a big dog payout on Ohtani and are leaning toward the Angels. However, we've seen this line move further to Houston (-180 to -190). This signals some sharp "fade the trendy dog" line movement on the Astros at home. Big home favorites -150 or more coming off a day off are 60-37 (62%) this season. Houston has value as a big favorite in a low total game (8). Correlative betting says the fewer amount of expected runs scored, the more likely they are to come from the "better" team. The Astros have also owned AL West opponents, going 39-20 (66%) inside the division. Houston is 68-43 as a favorite and 43-26 at home. Los Angeles is 32-41 as a dog and 31-37 at home. The Astros are 8-4 against the Angels this season.