Friday Sharp Action Report Purdue-Minnesota and New Mexico-Air Force

November 20, 2020 02:43 AM

The Seahawks took care of business on Thursday Night Football, beating the Cardinals 28-21 and covering as 3-point home favorites. Seattle originally opened as high as a 5.5-point favorite but sharp action on road dog Arizona dropped the line down to the key number of 3. The line move to the Cardinals proved unsuccessful as the Seahawks hung on and won by seven points.

The cover by Seattle continues an epic string of recent chalk in the NFL. Since Week 10, favorites have now gone 10-5 ATS (67%). From Weeks 1 to 9 favorites had gone 57-76 ATS (43%). Much to the chagrin of contrarian bettors and sportsbooks, we are in the midst of a huge public run with favorites dominating over the past week.

Contrarians were able to cash last night's under, though. The public hammered the over, yet we saw a late sharp line move drop the total from 57.5 to 56.5. The game landed on 49. Much like chalky favorites running the table over the past week, we've also seen unders strike back. Since Week 10, unders are quietly 9-6 (60%). In Weeks 1 to 9 unders went 60-70-3 (46%).

When the total is 55 or higher this year (aka "super high totals") the under is 11-5 (69%).

Now it's on to Friday. Today we have four college football games to get down on. For an updated breakdown of Friday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 12 p.m. ET. I'll also be joining Patrick Meagher and Michael Lombardi on The Lombardi Line at 12:30 p.m ET to offer a market update.

For now, let's discuss how lines are moving for two of tonight's biggest college football games.

7:30 p.m. ET: Purdue at Minnesota

This Big Ten West showdown looks incredibly lopsided on paper. Purdue (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) suffered their first loss of the season last week, falling to Northwestern 27-20 and failing to cover as 3.5-point home dogs. On the flip side, Minnesota (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS) is below .500 and just got crushed by Iowa 35-7, failing to cover as 3-point home dogs. This line opened with Purdue listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public sees Minnesota coming off a blowout loss and has no problem laying the short spread with Purdue, who also has a better record. However, despite this heavy betting on the Boilermakers, we've seen Purdue fall from -3 to -2.5. This signals some sharp reverse line movement on the home dog Gophers, with pros buying low on Minnesota + 3. We've also seen some under money show up, dropping the total from 62.5 to 61. The forecast calls for cold temperatures (30 degrees) and 10 MPH winds. Purdue is 3-0 to the under. Minnesota is 2-2. Keep an eye on the injury report as Purdue's starting quarterback Aidan O'Connell is questionable with an injury.

9:30 p.m. ET: New Mexico at Air Force

This Mountain West matchup between winless teams is the late game of the night. New Mexico (0-3 SU, 2-1 ATS) fell to Nevada 27-20 last week, although they covered as 17.5-point dogs. Meanwhile, Air Force (0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS) hasn't played since October 31 due to a string of positive COVID tests. In their last game, Air Force got crushed by Boise State 49-30, failing to cover as 13-point dogs. This line opened with Air Force listed as a 9.5-point home favorite. The public says lay the wood with Air Force, yet we've seen this line tumble down from -9.5 to -7.5. This two-point reverse line move signals pro action getting down on road dog New Mexico plus the points.

More Friday Line Moves

FAU -31.5 to -33.5 vs UMass

Louisville -18 to -19 vs Syracuse

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