Friday Sharp Action Report for Storm-Aces and Heat-Lakers

October 2, 2020 12:07 AM

The Broncos defeated the Jets 37-28 on Thursday Night Football, handing public bettors a win over the sharps. Denver opened as a 2.5-point favorite and got bet up to -3. But then we saw a flood of smart money hammer the Jets, flipping the line all the way to New York -1 or -1.5. Essentially, smart money had pushed the Jets from a dog to a favorite. But it was all for naught as the Broncos escaped with a win and cover. 

However, pros did cash the over. The total opened at 40 and rose to 41 despite a slight majority of bets taking the under. This was an example of a rare contrarian over with reverse line movement. Pros were rewarded as the total sailed over and landed on 65. Overs are now 30-19 (61.2%) on the season. 

Today we have quality, not quantity Friday slate with 1 NBA game, 1 WNBA game, 1 college football game and 1 MLB game. Consider it the calm before the weekend storm. Let's discuss two Friday matchups receiving notable sharp action from respected bettors.  

For an updated breakdown of Friday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at noon ET. I'll also be joining Michael Lombardi and Patrick Meagher on The Lombardi Line at 12:25 p.m ET to offer a market update.

7 p.m. ET: Seattle Storm vs Las Vegas Aces

This is Game 1 of the WNBA Finals. Both teams finished with an 18-4 record-season record. The Aces won both of the regular-season matchups, beating the Storm 82-74 and 86-84. However, the Storm are listed as a -350 favorite (78% implied probability) to win the series, with the Aces a + 280 underdog. This line opened with Seattle listed as a 4-point favorite. We've seen smart money back the favorite, pushing the line up to -5. Remember, WNBA is not a public sport. So anytime you see a line move there's a good chance it's sharp-driven. We've also seen some under money hit the market, dropping the total slightly from 164.5 to 164. 

9 p.m. ET: Miami Heat vs Los Angeles Lakers

This is Game 2 of the NBA Finals. The Lakers lead the series 1-0 after blowing out the Heat 116-98, easily covering as 4.5-point favorites. This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 7-point favorite. Two-thirds of bets, including heavy steam from sharp bettors, has pushed the Lakers up from -7 to -9.5. A big reason for the line move has been a pair of key injuries to Miami. Both Bam Adebayo and Goran Dragic are listed as doubtful and expected to miss this game. We've also seen smart money hit the under, dropping the total from 218 to 216.5. Historically, the under has been a smart bet in the NBA playoffs due to the elevated intensity and increased defensive emphasis. The under 217.5 cashed in Game 1 and now two key offensive players will be out for the Heat tonight. The Lakers opened as a -358 favorite to win the series at BetMGM. They are now a -1250 favorite. The Heat have moved from + 300 to + 800. 

 

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