Friday Sharp Action Report for Miami-NC State and BYU-Boise State

November 6, 2020 01:57 AM

The public feasted Thursday night and sportsbooks took a bath as the Packers crushed the 49ers 34-17, easily covering as 6-point road favorites. Green Bay opened at -2.5 and got bet all the way up to -7.5 before some late 49ers buyback dropped the number back to -6. The Packers were an incredibly popular play, receiving more than two-thirds of spread bets across the market. Books had massive liability on Green Bay and the public ended up beating the house as chalk proved victorious.

Under bettors suffered a nightmarish bad beat in the final seconds of the game. The total opened at 50.5 and closed at 48. The Packers led 34-10 but then the 49ers marched down the field in the final two minutes and scored with 4-seconds left in the game to make it 34-17, killing the under. The public rejoiced as a majority of bets were on the over.

Now it's on to Friday. Today we have three college football games. For an updated breakdown of Friday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 12 p.m. ET. I'll also be joining Michael Lombardi and Stormy Buonantony on The Lombardi Line at 12:25 p.m ET to offer a market update.

For now, let's discuss how lines are moving for two of tonight's biggest college football games.

7:30 p.m. ET: Miami Florida (5-1, ranked 11th) at NC State (4-2)

This conference showdown features a pair of rivals at the top of the ACC standings. Miami is riding a two-game win streak and just defeated Virginia 19-14, although they failed to cover as 13.5-point home favorites. On the flip side, NC State just had their three-game winning streak snapped last week, falling to North Carolina 48-21 and failing to cover as 15-point road dogs. Both of these teams are averaging roughly 32 PPG on offense. The difference comes on defense, where Miami is allowing 22 PPG and NC State is giving up 34 PPG. This line opened with Miami listed as a 9.5-point road favorite. Pros and Joes seem to be united on the Canes, with the line rising from -9.5 to -10.5.


9:45 p.m. ET: BYU (7-0, ranked 9th) at Boise State (2-0, ranked 21st)

This late night showdown between ranked teams will be by far the most heavily bet game of the night. BYU is undefeated and the Cougars have been very kind to bettors this season, going 5-1-1 ATS. BYU is coming off a 41-10 shellacking of Western Kentucky, pushing as 31-point favorites. On the flip side, Boise State is also undefeated, although they've only played two games thus far. Boise State has crushed both of their opponents this season, beating Utah State 42-13, covering as 17-point favorites and most recently crushing Air Force 49-30, covering as 13-point favorites. Both teams are averaging roughly 45 PPG, but BYU is only giving up 13 PPG on defense while Boise is allowing 21 PPG on defense.

This line opened with BYU listed as a 2.5-point road favorite. Roughly two-thirds of bets are laying the points with BYU. But it's not just public support, it's also some respected money. We've seen BYU rise from -2.5 to -3.5. Historically, when two ranked teams go head-to-head, the favorite has covered roughly 56% of the time the last decade, including 13-2 ATS this season. Boise has value as a home contrarian dog with an inflated line.

Keep an eye on the total in this one. Both teams put up a lot of points and we've seen this total rise from 59.5 to 61. Weather shouldn't be an issue in this one. It's a clear night, mid 50s with little wind on the blue turf.

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