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Friday Sharp Action Report for Louisiana-App State

December 4, 2020 08:56 AM

Today we have a loaded Friday slate of college basketball along with one college football game. For an updated breakdown of Friday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 12 p.m. ET. I'll also be joining Patrick Meagher and Michael Lombardi on The Lombardi Line at 12:30 p.m ET to offer a market update.

For now, let's discuss where the action is flowing for tonight's lone gridiron showdown.

8:30 p.m. ET: Louisiana (8-1, ranked 25th) at Appalachian State (7-2)

Originally there were supposed to be three Friday Night Lights contests. But due to COVID, this Sun Belt matchup is the only game in town tonight. As a result, it will take center stage and garner heavy betting action from the public. Louisiana is riding a five-game win streak and just obliterated UL Monroe 70-20,  easily covering as hefty 29.5-point favorites. Meanwhile, App State rebounded from a 34-23 loss to Coastal Carolina with a 47-10 beatdown of Troy last week, easily covering as 14-point favorites. Louisiana is outscoring their opponents by an average margin of 35-22 this season while App State is beating their opponents 33-18.

This line opened with App State listed as a 3-point home favorite. Typically, the public would load up on the ranked team getting points here. However, bets are relatively split with a slight lean to the home favorite Mountaineers. However, we've seen this line fall from App State -3 to -2.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Louisiana, with respected pro money grabbing the road dog at the key number of + 3. Louisiana has value as a short road dog + 4 or less. Historically, teams have covered in this spot roughly 54% of the time over the past decade.

We've also seen some heavy money hit this under, dropping the total from 54 to 52. Both of these teams rush for over 200 yards per game. This bodes well for the under as two elite rushing teams tend to chew up the clock and benefit the under. We could also be looking at rain and up to 10 MPH winds. Both teams are 6-3 to the under this season.

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