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Friday Sharp Action Report for Iowa State-Texas and Stanford-California

November 26, 2020 10:53 PM

Thursday's Turkey Day action saw dogs and favorites split 1-1 ATS. In the early game, the Texans dominated the Lions 41-25 and easily covered as 3-point road favorites. In the late afternoon game, Washington came up huge for contrarian bettors by upsetting the Cowboys 41-16. The Football team received sharp reverse line movement, falling from + 3 to + 2.5 on gameday.

Both the Texans (-2.5 to -3) and Washington (+ 3 to + 2.5) cashed the "covid road move" system. Road teams that receive line movement in their favor are now 51-38 ATS (57.3%). Washington cashed as a divisional dog and a short road dog. Divisional dogs are now 32-24 ATS (57.1%). Short road dogs + 6 or less are now 40-24 ATS (62.5%).

Overs went 2-0 on Thanksgiving. The Texans-Lions total saw late sharp over action 51.5 to 52.5. The Washington-Dallas total took in smart under money, falling from 47 to 46. But the public got the best of the sharps on that one.

Now it's on to Friday. Today we have a loaded slate full of college football and college basketball. For an updated breakdown of Friday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at noon ET. I'll also be joining Patrick Meagher and Michael Lombardi on The Lombardi Line at 12:30 p.m ET to offer a market update.

For now, let's discuss how lines are moving for two of today's biggest college football games.


12 p.m. ET: Iowa State (6-2, ranked 13th) at Texas (5-2, ranked 17th)

This early Friday matchup features two Big 12 rivals fighting for supremacy at the top of the conference standings. Iowa State has won three straight, most recently blanking Kansas State 45-0 last week, easily covering as 13.5-point home favorites. Texas has also won three straight. The Longhorns are coming off a "bye" as their game last week against Kansas was cancelled due to COVID. Prior to that, Texas beat West Virginia 17-13 but failed to cover as 6.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Texas listed as a 2-point home favorite. Spread bets are split with the public slightly leaning toward the Longhorns. However, we've seen this line fall from Texas -2 to -1. This signals respected wiseguy money grabbing the points with road dog Iowa State. The Cyclones have value as a short road conference dog with a line move in their favor.

4:30 p.m. ET: Stanford (0-2) at California (0-2)

This late afternoon Pac 12 matchup pits two struggling teams desperate to post their first victory of the season. Stanford is coming off a "bye" as their game against Washington State was cancelled last week due to COVID. Their last time out, Stanford fell to Colorado 35-32, losing outright as 9.5-point favorites. Meanwhile, California is coming off a 31-27 loss to Oregon State, losing outright as 1-point road favorites. This line opened with Cal listed as a 2-point home favorite. Pros and Joes have both loaded up on Stanford. This lopsided action has flipped the Cardinal from + 2 to -2. Stanford fits the "dog to favorite" line move system. If you're wary of laying the short spread, Stanford is -120 on the moneyline.

More Friday line moves

Oregon State + 14 to + 13.5 vs Oregon

Notre Dame-North Carolina Over 66 to 69

Nebraska-Iowa Over 52.5 to 53.5

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