Happy Fade the Public Friday! Today we have a loaded betting menu on tap, featuring 15 MLB games and 4 NFL Preseason games. For an updated breakdown of Friday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be joining The Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET to offer a market update and then co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 5 p.m. ET.
In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for three of tonight's NFL preseason games.
7 p.m. ET: Indianapolis Colts (2-0) at Detroit Lions (0-2)
The Colts are undefeated this preseason, beating the Panthers 21-18 in the opener, pushing as 3-point home favorites and then taking down the Vikings 12-10 last week, winning outright as 1.5-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Lions have gone winless this preseason, falling to the Bills 16-15, losing straight up as 1.5-point home favorites and then dropping a 26-20 decision to the Steelers but covering as 7-point road dogs. Tonight's line opened with Indianapolis listed as a 4-point road favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the points with the Colts. However, despite this lopsided support we've seen Indianapolis fall from -4 to -2. This signals some respected money buying low on the Lions plus the points. Plus, head coach Frank Reich is expected to rest most of his starters. Preseason dogs with a line move in their favor are 66-46 ATS (59%) since 2014. We've also seen some respected over money show up, driving the total from 32.5 to 33.5. The head official Alex Kemp has historically favored home teams (59% ATS) and overs (55%).
7:30 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Eagles (0-2) at New York Jets (2-0)
The Eagles have struggled mightily this preseason, falling to the Steelers 24-16 as 1-point home favorites and then getting crushed by the Patriots 35-0 as 1-point home favorites. Now they travel to the Meadowlands to take on the undefeated Jets, who beat the Giants 12-7 as 2.5-point home favorites and then took down the Packers 23-14, covering as 2.5-point road favorites. Tonight's line opened with New York listed as a 4-point home favorite. Wiseguys aren't outsmarting themselves on this one. They're happy to bet against Philadelphia and back New York, as we've seen the Jets get steamed up from -4 to -5.5. Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni is expected to continue resting his starters as he's done all preseason, while Jets head coach Robert Saleh is expected to continue playing most of his starters. The total hasn't budged off the opener of 33.5. Both teams are 2-0 to the under this preseason. When both teams missed the postseason the previous year, the under is 98-59 (62%) in the preseason since 2014. Bill Vinovich, the lead red, has been profitable to the under historically (59%).
7:30 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Steelers (3-0) at Carolina Panthers (0-2)
The Steelers have rolled throughout the preseason, beating the Cowboys 16-3 in the Hall of Fame game as 1-point favorites, taking down the in-state rival Eagles 24-16 as 1-point road dogs and then dismissing the Lions 26-20 but failing to cover as 7-point home dogs. On the flipside, the winless Panthers fell to the Colts 21-18 as 3-point road dogs and then got crushed by the Ravens 20-3, failing to cover as 3.5-point home dogs. Tonight's line opened with Carolina listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. Mike Tomlin is expected to rest most of his starters and Dwayne Hakins will get the nod at quarterback. On the flip side, Matt Rhule is expected to play many of his starters, including some extended time behind center for new starting quarterback Sam Darnold. As a result, we've seen pros back Carolina, pushing the Panthers from -2.5 to -3.5. Some shops have even touched -4. Sharps have also targeted this under, driving the total down from 36.5 to 35. Unders are 24-9 (73%) this preseason. When the total falls at least a point, the under is 71-53 (57%) in the preseason since 2014.
Remember to check the VSiN Betting Splits every day for money and ticket counts so you can tell who the public is betting on.