Friday NBA Playoffs Sharp Report


Today bettors have a loaded Friday slate to choose from including 2 NBA playoff games, 4 NHL playoff games and 15 MLB games. For an updated breakdown of Friday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 3 p.m. ET. I'll be joining The Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET and then co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET. 

In the meantime, let's discuss where smart money is leaning for tonight's NBA playoff doubleheader...


7 p.m. ET: Miami Heat at Philadelphia 76ers

This is Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals. The Heat lead the series 2-0 and have won and covered as favorites in both games, winning the opener 106-92 and winning again 119-103 in Game 2. Now the series shifts to Philadelphia. This line originally opened with the 76ers listed as a short 1-point home favorite, largely on the belief that injured Philadelphia star Joel Embiid would return to action after suffering an orbital fracture. But then on Thursday afternoon it was announced that Embiid would miss the game, which caused Miami to flip to a 3-point road favorite. Favorites are 34-23 ATS (60%) this postseason. Favorites with a line move in their favor are 20-9 ATS (69%). Favorites are also 42-15 (74%) straight up. Miami is -150 on the moneyline. The total has dipped slightly from 210.5 to 210 at some shops. Unders are 37-20 (65%) this postseason. Unders that fall at least a half point are 19-9 (68%). Leading 2-0, Miami is a -1400 favorite to win the series at BetMGM. Philadelphia is a +800 longshot. Miami is the favorite to win the Eastern Conference at +130. The Heat are tied with the Celtics for the 3rd best odds to win the NBA Title at +450.


9:30 p.m. ET: Phoenix Suns at Dallas Mavericks

This is Game 3 of the Western Conference Semifinals. The Suns lead the series 2-0 and have won and covered in both games, taking the opener 121-114 and winning again 129-109 in Game 2. Now the series shifts to Dallas. This line opened with Phoenix listed as a short 1-point road favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the short chalk with the Suns. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen the line fall to a pick'em. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Dallas, with pros backing the desperate contrarian Mavs at home. The total hasn't budged off the opener of 219.5. The over is 2-0 this series. Leading 2-0, the Suns are -1600 favorites to win the series. The Mavs are +900. Phoenix is the favorite to win both the Western Conference (-125) and the NBA Title (+200). Devin Booker is the favorite to win the NBA Finals MVP at +450.

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