Friday NBA Playoffs Sharp Report


Today bettors have a loaded menu of Friday sweats to choose from including one NBA playoff game, two NHL playoff games and 15 MLB games. For an updated breakdown of Friday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 3 p.m. ET. I'll be joining The Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET and then I'll be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET. 

In the meantime, let's discuss where smart money is leaning for tonight's lone NBA playoff game...


9 p.m. ET: Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors

This is Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals. The Warriors lead the series 1-0 after crushing the Mavericks 112-87 in Game 1, easily covering as 5.5-point home favorites. In tonight's rematch, Golden State opened as a 6.5-point home favorite. The public expects another Warriors blowout win and is rushing to the window to lay the chalk. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen the line remain frozen at 6.5 or even fall to 6 at some shops. This signals some sharp line freeze action and reverse line movement on Dallas, with pros grabbing the points with the contrarian road dog. 

Teams that see the line either stay the same or move in their favor are 52-43 ATS (55%) this postseason. Dallas is 23-19 ATS (55%) as a dog this season, including 6-5 ATS as a dog this postseason. The Mavericks are also 26-9 ATS (74%) off a loss, including 4-1 ATS off a loss this postseason. 

Wiseguys are also leaning toward a lower-scoring game tonight. The total opened at 214.5 and has fallen to 214 across the market, signaling some respected under money. Unders are 50-28 (64%) this postseason. Unders that fall at least a half point are 29-13 (69%). If the total is 210 or more the under is 45-20 (69%). Dallas is 58-36 to the under this season. Golden State is 50-42 to the under, including 28-18 to the under at home.

Leading 1-0, Golden State is a -450 favorite to win the series. Dallas is +350. The Warriors are the favorite to win the NBA Title at +110. 

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A Numbers Game: Pay attention to stats and trends that are completely lopsided. For example, Matt Rhule and the Panthers are 1-25 straight up when allowing their opponent to score 17 or more points.

Follow The Money: Be aware of Miami's backloaded schedule when betting either side of their 11.5 win total. In December: at SF, at LAC, at BUF, vs GB.

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Adam Burke: Washington -2.5 vs UCLA

Pauly Howard: Golden Knights Under 97 points for the season.

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Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen. GO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen. GO HERE.

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