Friday NBA Playoffs Sharp Report

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Happy Friday! Today bettors have another loaded slate to choose from including 2 NBA playoff games, 3 NHL playoff games and 15 MLB games. For an updated breakdown of Thursday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 3 p.m. ET. I'll be joining The Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET to offer a market update and then I'll be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET. 

In the meantime, let's discuss where smart money is leaning for tonight's NBA playoff doubleheader...

 

7:30 p.m. ET: Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks

This is Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals. The Bucks lead the series 3-2 and can eliminate Boston with a win tonight. Milwaukee is coming off a 110-107 win in Game 5, winning outright as 4.5-point road dogs. Now the series shifts back to Milwaukee. This line opened with the Bucks listed as a 1.5-point home favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the short chalk with the Bucks at home. However, despite this lopsided betting on Milwaukee the line hasn't budged. This signals sharp line freeze action on Boston, with pros grabbing the points with the desperate Celtics on the road. Boston is 2-0 off a loss in the postseason. The Celtics are 20-13 ATS (61%) off a loss on the season and have not lost back-to-back games since January. Pros have also hit the under, dropping the total from 212 to 211. Unders are 46-25 (65%) this postseason. Unders that fall at least a half point are 27-11 (71%). Leading 3-2, the Bucks are -275 favorites to win the series. The Celtics are +220 dogs. 

 

10 p.m. ET: Memphis Grizzlies at Golden State Warriors

This is Game 6 of the Western Conference Semifinals. The Warriors lead the series 3-2 but Memphis is coming off a 134-95 blowout win in Game 5, easily winning outright as 4-point home dogs. Now the series shifts back to Golden State. This line opened with the Warriors listed as an 8.5-point home favorite. Some shops even opened Warriors -9. We've seen this line fall to 8, signaling respected money grabbing the Grizzlies plus the points. Teams receiving line moves in their favor are 33-24 ATS (58%) this postseason. We could also be looking at a lower-scoring game here. The total opened at 219.5 and smart under money has dropped the line to 217.5. This would also match as a late series "tired legs" under. Leading 3-2, the Warriors are -1000 favorites to advance to the Conference Finals. The Grizzlies are +650 dogs.

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The Lombardi Line: Bookmakers love parleys, when playing them, you want a mix of favorites and underdogs.

Pro Football Blitz: When you back teams on the raod you want a good running team, when you back teams at home you want a good passing team. With teams on the road usually the underdog, you want a team that can control time of possession like the Tennessee Titans.

 

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Shaun King: Eagles -6.5 vs Jaguars

Brendan Gaughan: Brad Keselowski Top 3 +600

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Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen. GO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen. GO HERE.

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