Friday NBA Playoffs Sharp Report


Happy Friday! Today bettors have a loaded slate to choose from including one NBA playoff game, one NHL playoff game and 14 MLB games. For an updated breakdown of Friday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 3 p.m. ET. I'll be joining The Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET and then co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET. 

In the meantime, let's discuss where smart money is leaning for tonight's lone NBA playoff game...


8:30 p.m. ET: Miami Heat at Boston Celtics

This is Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals. The Celtics lead the series 3-2 and can eliminate the Heat with a victory tonight. Boston is coming off a 93-80 win in Game 5, easily covering as 3.5-point road favorites. Now the series shifts to Boston where the Celtics can punch their ticket to the NBA Finals with a win.

This line opened with Boston listed as an 8.5-point home favorite. The public thinks the line is way too high and they're rushing to the window to grab the points with trendy dog Miami. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen the line remain frozen at 8.5. It has even briefly risen to -9 and come back down. It has never fallen to 8. This signals some sharp "Fade the Trendy Dog" line freeze liability on the Celtics, with wiseguys laying the points with the contrarian favorite despite the hefty chalk number. Favorites are 49-36 ATS (58%) this postseason. Big playoff favorites of 8-points or more are roughly 56% ATS over the past decade. 

The total opened at a super-low 201. The public is hammering the over based upon the incredibly low total. However, the line hasn't budged off 201. This signals some line freeze liability on the under. Unders are 53-31 (63%) this postseason. The first three games of this series went over. The last two have sailed under. This would match a late series "tired legs" under system. Historically, unders have increased in value in Game 6 and 7 due to the tired legs and improved effort on defense with your season on the line. 

In terms of the injury report, both Marcus Smart and Robert Williams are questionable for Boston. The big question mark for Miami is the status of Tyler Herro, who has missed the last two games with a groin injury.

Leading 3-2, the Celtics are -1100 favorites to win the series. The Heat are +700. Boston is +140 to win the NBA Title, second best odds behind Golden State (-155). Miami is +2500. 

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