Friday NBA Playoff Sharp Report (6-18)

June 18, 2021 12:48 AM

Happy Fade the Public Friday! Today we have another loaded betting menu, including 14 MLB games, 2 NBA playoff games and 1 NHL playoff game. For an updated breakdown of Thursday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 1 p.m. ET. I'll be joining The Lombardi Line with Michael Lombardi and Patrick Meagher at 1:30 p.m. ET to offer a market update.

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for tonight's two big NBA playoff games.

7:30 p.m. ET: Philadelphia 76ers at Atlanta Hawks

This is Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals. The Hawks lead the series 3-2 and can punch their ticket to the Conference Finals with a victory. After falling behind 2-1, Atlanta has won two straight games, including a huge 109-106 come-from-behind victory in Game 5, winning outright as 7-point road dogs. This Game 6 line opened with Philadelphia listed as either a 2.5-point or 3-point road favorite, depending on the sportsbook. The public is all over the 76ers to keep their season alive and is rushing to the window to lay the short spread. Books that opened at -2.5 quickly got adjusted to -3 while others that opened at -3 have stayed at -3. The next move will be incredibly meaningful. If we see this line fall back 2.5 it will indicate some Hawks + 3 wiseguy action. The Hawks have won outright as dogs in the past two games. Atlanta is contrarian in a heavily bet game and also has some sharp line freeze vibes. We've also seen some respected money hit this under, which opened at 222.5 and has fallen to 221.5. The under is 3-2 this series. The under is 12-8 (60%) in Round Two. Historically, unders have been a smart bet in Game 6 and Game 7 due to tired legs and an emphasis on defense as teams are facing elimination. Leading 3-2, the Hawks are -160 favorites to win the series (62% implied probability). The 76ers are + 135 underdogs. 

10 p.m. ET: Utah Jazz at Los Angeles Clippers

This is Game 6 of the Western Conference Semifinals. The Clippers lead the series 3-2. Los Angeles trailed 0-2 and has since won three straight games, including an impressive 119-111 victory in Game 5, winning outright as 8.5-point road underdogs. The Jazz have their backs against the wall and must win tonight in order to keep their season alive. This Game 6 line opened with the Jazz listed as a 2-point road favorite. The public says there's no way the Jazz lose again to the Kawhi-less Clippers. However, despite lopsided betting on the Jazz, we've actually seen this line fall from 2 to 1.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Clippers, with pros backing red-hot Paul George and Company as short home dogs. The total opened at 219.5 and has dipped slightly to 219. This indicates some sharp liability on the under, with oddsmakers reluctant to raise the total and hand out a better number to brave late series under backers. Unders in Game 6 and 7 have cashed at roughly a 57% clip over the past decade. When the total is less than 220 the under is 13-9 (59%) this postseason. Leading 3-2, the Clippers are a -185 favorite to advance to the Conference Finals. The Jazz are a + 135 underdog. 

Updated NBA Title Odds at BetMGM

Nets + 275

Suns + 300

Bucks + 425

Jazz + 600  

Clippers + 800

76ers + 1100  

Hawks + 2000

Remember to check the VSiN Betting Splits every day for money and ticket counts so you can tell who the public is betting on.

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