Live On Air

Streaming Now: The Lookahead

play Watch Live radio Listen Live

Friday NBA Playoff Sharp Report (6-11)

June 11, 2021 12:50 AM

Happy Fade the Public Friday! Today we have another loaded betting menu to choose from including 14 MLB games and 2 NBA playoff games. For an updated breakdown of Thursday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 1 p.m. ET. I'll be joining The Lombardi Line with Michael Lombardi and Patrick Meagher at 1:30 p.m. ET to offer a market update.

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for tonight's NBA playoff games...

7:30 p.m. ET: Philadelphia 76ers at Atlanta Hawks

This is Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals. The series is tied 1-1. The Hawks won the opener 128-124, winning outright as 4.5-point road dogs. Then the 76ers bounced back with a 118-102 blowout win in Game 2, easily covering as 6.5-point home favorites. Now the series shifts from Philadelphia to Atlanta. This Game 3 line opened with Philadelphia listed as a short 2-point road favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the short spread with the 76ers. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen Philadelphia fall from -2 to -1.5. Some shops have even touched -1. This signals some sharp reverse line movement buying low on the Hawks, with pros jumping on Atlanta ideally at the + 2 opener. The Hawks also have value as a contrarian home dog in a heavily bet game. The total opened at 224.5 and hasn't budged. When the total is 220 or more, the over is 22-14 (61%) this postseason. With the series tied 1-1, the 76ers are a -250 favorite to advance, The Hawks are a + 200 dog to come back and win the series.

10 p.m. ET: Phoenix Suns at Denver Nuggets

This is Game 3 of the Western Conference Semifinals. The Suns have a commanding 2-0 series lead after winning and covering the first two games in Phoenix. The Suns won the opener 122-105 and won the second game 123-98, covering as 5.5-point home favorites both times. Now the series shifts from Phoenix to Denver. This Game 3 line opened with the Nuggets listed as a short 1.5-point home favorite. The public can't believe the red-hot Suns are an underdog and they've hammering the Suns plus the points. However, despite this lopsided support the line has remained frozen at Nuggets -1.5. This signals a sharp line freeze on Denver, with oddsmakers unwilling to drop the spread and hand out a better number to brave Nuggets backers. Denver also has rare "fade the trendy dog" value as a contrarian favorite in a heavily bet, primetime game. Short favorites -5 or less are 22-11 ATS (67%) this postseason. Also, favorites off a blowout loss of 10-points or more have been a smart buy-low bet in the next game (roughly 57% ATS over the past decade). The under has also taken in some smart money, falling from 223.5 to 222.5. So far unders are 6-3 in Round Two. Up 2-0, the Suns are now -800 favorites to win the series. The Nuggets are + 550 dogs. 

Updated NBA Title Odds at BetMGM

Nets + 120

Jazz + 275

Suns + 600

76ers + 1000

Bucks + 1200

Clippers + 1600

Hawks + 5000

Nuggets + 8000

Remember to check the VSiN Betting Splits every day for money and ticket counts so you can tell who the public is betting on.

back to news


Ask VSiN Your Sports Betting Questions

Spell Check


View All

Google Play
App Store