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Friday NBA Playoff Sharp Report (6-11)

June 11, 2021 12:50 AM

Happy Fade the Public Friday! Today we have another loaded betting menu to choose from including 14 MLB games and 2 NBA playoff games. For an updated breakdown of Thursday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 1 p.m. ET. I'll be joining The Lombardi Line with Michael Lombardi and Patrick Meagher at 1:30 p.m. ET to offer a market update.

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for tonight's NBA playoff games...

7:30 p.m. ET: Philadelphia 76ers at Atlanta Hawks

This is Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals. The series is tied 1-1. The Hawks won the opener 128-124, winning outright as 4.5-point road dogs. Then the 76ers bounced back with a 118-102 blowout win in Game 2, easily covering as 6.5-point home favorites. Now the series shifts from Philadelphia to Atlanta. This Game 3 line opened with Philadelphia listed as a short 2-point road favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the short spread with the 76ers. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen Philadelphia fall from -2 to -1.5. Some shops have even touched -1. This signals some sharp reverse line movement buying low on the Hawks, with pros jumping on Atlanta ideally at the + 2 opener. The Hawks also have value as a contrarian home dog in a heavily bet game. The total opened at 224.5 and hasn't budged. When the total is 220 or more, the over is 22-14 (61%) this postseason. With the series tied 1-1, the 76ers are a -250 favorite to advance, The Hawks are a + 200 dog to come back and win the series.

10 p.m. ET: Phoenix Suns at Denver Nuggets

This is Game 3 of the Western Conference Semifinals. The Suns have a commanding 2-0 series lead after winning and covering the first two games in Phoenix. The Suns won the opener 122-105 and won the second game 123-98, covering as 5.5-point home favorites both times. Now the series shifts from Phoenix to Denver. This Game 3 line opened with the Nuggets listed as a short 1.5-point home favorite. The public can't believe the red-hot Suns are an underdog and they've hammering the Suns plus the points. However, despite this lopsided support the line has remained frozen at Nuggets -1.5. This signals a sharp line freeze on Denver, with oddsmakers unwilling to drop the spread and hand out a better number to brave Nuggets backers. Denver also has rare "fade the trendy dog" value as a contrarian favorite in a heavily bet, primetime game. Short favorites -5 or less are 22-11 ATS (67%) this postseason. Also, favorites off a blowout loss of 10-points or more have been a smart buy-low bet in the next game (roughly 57% ATS over the past decade). The under has also taken in some smart money, falling from 223.5 to 222.5. So far unders are 6-3 in Round Two. Up 2-0, the Suns are now -800 favorites to win the series. The Nuggets are + 550 dogs. 

Updated NBA Title Odds at BetMGM

Nets + 120

Jazz + 275

Suns + 600

76ers + 1000

Bucks + 1200

Clippers + 1600

Hawks + 5000

Nuggets + 8000

Remember to check the VSiN Betting Splits every day for money and ticket counts so you can tell who the public is betting on.

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