Friday MLB Sharp Report

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For an in depth breakdown of Friday's betting action, be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 3 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET. 

In the meantime, let's dive into a trio of MLB games receiving sharp action today...

 

7:05 p.m. ET: San Diego Padres (63-51) at Washington Nationals (37-76)

These National League non-division opponents are at opposite ends of the standings. The Padres just took two of three at home against the Giants and currently occupy the third and final Wild Card spot in the NL. On the flip side, the Nats are just 1-7 in their last eight games and own the worst record in baseball. In tonight's series opener, the Padres hand the ball to righty Mike Clevinger (3-4, 3.60 ERA) and the Nats send out to fellow righty Cory Abbott (0-1, 5.68 ERA). This line opened with the Padres listed as a hefty -215 road favorite and the Nats a +195 home dog. Sharps aren't scared off by the big chalk and have steamed San Diego up from -215 to -235. Non-division road favorites -200 or more are 30-10 (75%) this season. Both teams are hitting roughly .245. The difference comes on the mound, where the Padres sport a 3.80 ERA and the Nats 5.31. San Diego is 43-33 as a favorite, 30-27 on the road and 41-33 against righties. Washington is 30-68 as a dog, 17-40 at home and 26-50 against righties. This marks the first game back in Washington for Juan Soto, who was traded from the Nats to the Padres at the deadline. 

 

7:10 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies (62-49) at New York Mets (73-39)

Both of these NL East rivals are running red hot as of late. The Phillies just took two of three from the Marlins at home and are now 12-2 over their last 14 games. Meanwhile, the Mets just swept the Reds at home to move to 15-2 over their last 17 games. In tonight's series opener, Philadelphia starts lefty Ranger Suarez (8-5, 3.68 ERA) and New York gives the ball to veteran ace righty Max Scherzer (8-2, 1.98 ERA). This line opened with the Mets listed as a -160 home favorite and the Phillies a +145 road dog. Pros have hammed the Mets with Scherzer on the bump, steaming New York up from -160 to -190. The Mets have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7). The Mets are 35-14 (71%) as a home favorite this season. New York also has a rest advantage, having been off yesterday while the Phillies played the Marlins. Favorites off a day off against teams who played the previous day are 262-164 (62%) since 2018. The Mets lead the season series 9-3. 

 

9:38 p.m. ET: Minnesota Twins (57-53) at Los Angeles Angels (49-63)

These American League non-division foes are trending in opposite directions. The Twins only trail the first place Guardians by 1.5 games in the AL Central, but Minnesota just got swept on the road at the Dodgers. On the flip side, the Angels are 10 games back of the final Wild Card spot but just swept the Athletics on the road. In tonight's series opener, Minnesota taps newly acquired righty Tyler Mahle (5-7, 4.49 ERA) and Los Angeles sends out lefty Patrick Sandoval (3-7, 3.41 ERA). This line opened with the Twins listed as a modest -115 road favorite and the Angels a +105 home dog. Sharps have pounced on Minnesota laying the short chalk, steaming the Twins up from -115 to -125. Non-division road favorites are 194-125 (61%) this season. When both teams are coming off a day off, as is the case here, the favorite is 81-48 (63%). Minnesota's biggest edge comes at the plate, hitting .250 compared to .228 for Los Angeles. The Twins are 39-23 as a favorite 17-14 against lefties. The Angels are 12-33 as a dog and 33-46 against righties. 

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