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Friday MLB Sharp Report

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Happy Friday! Bettors have a loaded betting slate to choose from today including a pair of NBA playoff play-in games, 15 MLB games and two NHL games. For an updated breakdown of Friday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 3 p.m. ET. I'll also be joining the Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET and then co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET.

In the meantime, let's dive into a trio of MLB games receiving sharp action today...

 

1:10 p.m. ET: Arizona Diamondbacks (2-4) at New York Mets (5-2)

Both of these National League non-division opponents are coming off wins. The Diamondbacks just upset the Astros 3-2 in extra innings, cashing as a +145 home dog. On the flip side, the Mets just won two in a row against the Phillies, posting a 9-6 win as -110 home favorites their last time out. In this early afternoon series opener, Arizona hands the ball to righty Zach Davies (0-0, 3.60 ERA) while New York start fellow veteran righty Chris Bassitt (1-0, 0.00 ERA). This line opened with the Mets listed as a hefty -195 favorite in their home opener and the Snakes a +180 road dog. Pros aren't scared off by the big price and have steamed the Mets, driving New York up from -195 to -220.  When both teams are coming off a day off, which is the case here, the favorite is 62% since 2020. The Mets are 4-1 as a favorite this season. The Snakes are 2-4 as a dog. The total is 8.5 with the under juiced to -115, signaling some liability on a lower-scoring game. Unders are 56-36 (61%) this season. Both teams have been profitable to the under this season, with the Snakes 5-1 to the under and the Mets 4-2-1 to the under. 

 

2:10 p.m. ET: Minnesota Twins (2-4) at Boston Red Sox (3-3)

These American League non-division foes are trending in opposite directions as of late. The Twins just got swept by the Dodgers in a brief two game series, most recently falling to Los Angeles 7-0 as +170 home dogs. Meanwhile, the Red Sox just won two in a row against the Tigers, posting a 9-7 win their last time out as -135 road favorites. In this afternoon's series opener, Minnesota gives the ball to righty Joe Ryan (0-1, 4.50 ERA) while Boston counters with fellow righty Nick Pivetta (0-1, 6.35 ERA). This line opened with the Red Sox listed as a short -115 home favorite and the Twins a +105 road dog. Pros have laid the chalk with Boston in their home opener, steaming the Red Sox up from -115 to -125. The Red Sox have value as a non-division home favorite (61% since the start of last season). Boston is 2-1 as a favorite this season. Minnesota is 0-2 as a dog. Wiseguys have also hit this under, dropping the total from 10.5 to 10. The under 10 is juiced up to -115, signaling a possible further fall down to 9.5. The Red Sox are 4-2 to the under this season. Minnesota is 4-1-1 to the under. If the total is 8.5 or higher, the under improves to 45-23 (66%). 

 

6:40 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies (3-4) at Miami Marlins (2-4)

The Marlins took last night's series opener 4-3, cashing as modest -115 home favorites. In tonight's rematch, Philadelphia sends out righty Zach Eflin (0-0, 0.00 ERA) and Miami trots out fellow righty Pablo Lopez (0-0, 1.80 ERA). This line opened with Miami listed as a short -110 home favorite and Philadelphia a +100 road dog. The public is grabbing the even money with the Phillies, yet we've seen this line inch further toward Miami (-110 to -120). This signals sharp fade the trendy dog action laying the chalk with the contrarian favorite Marlins. Miami has value as a favorite with a low total (7.5). Low totals benefit favorites as the fewer amount of expected runs scored are more likely to come from the "better" team. The Marlins are 1-0 as a favorite this season. The Phillies are 0-2 as a dog. The total opened at 8 and has fallen to 7.5 at some shops, signaling under liability. The Phillies are 4-2-1 to the under this season. The Marlins are 5-1 to the under. If the retractable roof stays closed, the forecast calls for mid 70s with 10 MPH winds blowing in from right center, which aids the under. 

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