Friday MLB Sharp Report


For an updated breakdown of Friday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 3 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting The Lombardi Line with Dave Ross from 12 p.m. ET to 2 p.m. ET and then I'll be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET.

In the meantime, let's discuss where smart money is leaning for a trio of MLB games tonight...


6:40 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Rays (45-37) at Cincinnati Reds (29-54)

These Interleague foes are trending in opposite directions. The Rays just took two of three against the Red Sox at Fenway Park to move to 5-1 over their last six games. Meanwhile, the Reds are just 3-7 over their last ten games after splitting a two-game set with the Pirates. In tonight's series opener, Tampa Bay hands the ball to lefty ace Shane McClanahan (9-3, 1.74 ERA) and Cincinnati counters with righty Luis Castillo (3-4, 3.09 ERA). This line opened with the Rays listed as a -135 road favorite and the Reds a +120 home dog. Pros have laid the chalk with the Rays, steaming Tampa bay up from -135 to -170. Non-division road favorites are 152-89 (63%) this season. Favorites coming off a day off, as is the case with the Rays, against teams that played the previous day, like the Reds, are 255-160 (62%) since 2018. Favorites who made the playoffs the previous year against teams who did not are 319-173 (65%). The Rays are 32-19 as a favorite and 35-26 against righties. The Reds are 22-41 as a dog and just 7-17 against lefties. McClanahan is currently the favorite to win the AL Cy Young at +250. 


7:20 p.m. ET: Washington Nationals (30-55) at Atlanta Braves (49-35)

Another exampled of two teams heading in different directions. The Nats just dropped two of three to the Phillies to fall to just 1-7 over their last 8 games. On the flip side, the Braves just took three of four at home against the Cardinals, improving to 10-5 over their last 15 games. In tonight's NL East series opener, Washington trots out righty Erick Fedde (5-5, 4.29 ERA) and Atlanta sends out fellow righty Charlie Morton (4-3, 4.34 ERA). This line opened with the Braves listed as a hefty -250 home favorite and the Nats a +225 road dog. Pros aren't scared off by the expensive chalk and have steamed Atlanta up from -250 to -270. Home favorites -200 or more are 126-51 (71%) this season. Favorites off a loss who made the playoffs last season, like the Braves, are 159-86 (65%). The Braves are 41-20 as a favorite, 27-18 at home and 29-26 against righties. The Nats are 23-48 as a dog, 16-24 on the road and 19-34 against righties. Both teams are hitting .250. The difference comes on the mound, with the Braves sporting a 3.65 ERA compared to 5.12 for the Nats. Atlanta leads the season series 4-2. 


9:40 p.m. ET: Colorado Rockies (36-47) at Arizona Diamondbacks (37-46)

The Rockies took Thursday night's series opener 4-3, cashing as slight -115 road favorites. In tonight's rematch, Colorado hands the ball to righty Chad Kuhl (5-5, 3.83 ERA) and Arizona taps fellow righty Zac Gallen (4-2, 3.40 ERA). This line opened with the Diamondbacks listed as a -145 home favorite and the Rockies a +125 road dog. Pros have sided with the Snakes to even up the series, steaming Arizona up from -145 to -165. Arizona has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8). The Diamondbacks are currently receiving 60% of bets but 82% of money, a sharp "low bets, higher dollars" bet split. Arizona is 9-6 in Gallen's 15 starts this season. The Rockies are just 3-8 in Kuhl's last 11 starts. Colorado is just 13-26 on the road this season, the second worst road record in MLB trailing only the Tigers (12-23). 

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