Friday MLB Sharp Report

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For an in depth breakdown of Friday's betting action, be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 3 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET.

In the meantime, let's discuss a trio of MLB games receiving sharp action today...

 

8:10 p.m. ET: San Diego Padres (68-58) at Kansas City Royals (51-75)

Both of these Interleague foes are looking to get back on track. The Padres just got swept at home by the Guardians and are now just 3-6 over their last nine games. Meanwhile, the Royals just split a two-game series at home against the Diamondbacks but are still just 3-7 over their last ten. In tonight's series opener, San Diego hands the ball to righty Joe Musgrove (8-6, 2.91 ERA) and Kansas City counters with lefty Kris Bubic (2-8, 5.29 ERA). This line opened with the Padres listed as a -175 road favorite and the Royals a +160 home dog. Pros aren't scared off by the big chalk and have steamed the Padres up from -175 to -190. Non-division road favorites are 223-145 (61%) this season. When both teams are coming off a day off, as is the case here, the favorite is 89-49 (65%). Both teams are hitting roughly .240. The difference comes on the mound, with the Padres sporting a 3.76 team ERA compared to 4.65 for the Royals. San Diego is 48-40 as a favorite, 33-30 on the road and 23-18 against lefties. Kansas City is 38-64 as a dog, 31-35 at home and 35-57 against righties. 

 

8:10 p.m. ET: Arizona Diamondbacks (56-67) at Chicago White Sox (63-62)

The Diamondbacks just split a two game series at the Royals. Arizona is 1-4 over their last five games and currently sit 10.5-games back of the final Wild Card spot in the NL. Similarly, the White Sox are just 2-6 over their last eight games and just dropped two of three on the road at the Orioles. Chicago is four-games back in the AL Central and five games back in the Wild Card. In tonight's Interleague series opener, Arizona turns to lefty Tommy Henry (2-2, 3.57 ERA) and Chicago taps veteran righty Johnny Cueto (6-5, 2.58 ERA). This line opened with the White Sox listed as a -170 home favorite and the Diamondbacks a +155 road dog. Sharps have laid the wood with Chicago, steaming the White Sox up from -170 to -180. Favorites off a loss who made the playoffs the previous season, like the White Sox here, are 242-133 (65%). Chicago holds a noticeable edge at the plate, hitting .260 compared to .229 for Arizona. The total is 8.5 with the over juiced to -115, signaling some over liability and a possible rise up to 9. Cueto has a 1.76 ERA four August starts. 

 

10:10 p.m. ET: Cleveland Guardians (66-57) at Seattle Mariners (68-57)

The Mariners won last night's series opener 3-1, cashing as 100 home dogs. In tonight's rematch, Cleveland starts ace righty Shane Bieber (8-7, 3.10 ERA) and Seattle counters with fellow righty Logan Gilbert (10-5, 3.52 ERA). This line opened at a virtual pick'em, with both sides listed at roughly -105. Some shops opened with Seattle listed as a slight -115 home favorite. Either way, we've seen respected money side with the Guardians to bounce back with a win, moving Cleveland up to -110 or even -115 across the market. The Guardians will lean on their bats, hitting .252 compared to .232 for the Mariners. We could also be looking at a low scoring game here, as the total is 7 with the under juiced to -120, signaling a possible dip down to 6.5. The under is 5-0 in the last five Guardians games. The under is 4-1 in the last five Mariners game. Bieber has a 1.71 ERA in four August starts. 

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