Friday MLB Sharp Report


For an updated breakdown of Friday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 3 p.m. ET. I'll also be joining The Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET to offer a market update and then co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET. 

In the meantime, let's discuss where respected money is leaning for a trio of Friday Night MLB games...
6:05 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Rays (35-28) at Baltimore Orioles (28-37)
The Rays just got swept by the Yankees in a three-game series in New York. On the flip side, the Orioles just hung tough and split a four-game series on the road against Toronto. In tonight's AL East division series opener, Tampa Bay hands the ball to righty Shane Baz (0-1, 19.29 ERA) and Baltimore starts fellow righty Dean Kremer (1-1, 3.86 ERA). This line opened with the Rays listed as a -135 road favorite and the Orioles a +115 home dog. Sharps are buying low on the Rays after losing three straight, steaming Tampa Bay up from -135 to -145. Favorites off a loss who made the playoffs last year are 124-64 (66%) this season. The Rays are 28-15 as a favorite and 26-21 against righties. The Orioles are 25-35 as a dog and 16-25 against righties. Tampa Bay is 4-2 against Baltimore this season. The Rays are +18 in run differential. The Orioles are -40. 
7:05 p.m. ET: San Francisco Giants (35-27) at Pittsburgh Pirates (25-37)
The Giants are 8-4 over their last 12 games, having just taken two of three at home against the Royals. Conversely, the Pirates are 1-9 over their last ten games and just lost three of four at home against the Cardinals. In tonight's series opener, San Francisco starts lefty Carlos Rodon (5-4, 3.18 ERA) and Pittsburgh counters with righty Zach Thompson (3-4, 4.50 ERA). This line opened with the Giants listed as a -190 road favorite and the Pirates a +175 home dog. Wiseguys aren't scared off by the big chalk and have steamed the Giants up from -190 to -200. Non-division road favorites are 125-60 (68%) this season. When both teams are coming off a day off, as is the case here, the favorite is 53-26 (67%). San Francisco also has correlative betting value as a big favorite in a low total game (7.5). The Giants are 29-19 as a favorite, 16-13 on the road and 23-21 against righties. The Pirates are 18-30 as a dog, 13-17 at home and 9-13 against lefties. San Francisco is hitting .239 while Pittsburgh is hitting .220. The Giants are +40 in run differential. The Pirates are -101. 
8:40 p.m. ET: San Diego Padres (41-24) at Colorado Rockies (27-37)
The Padres are 11-3 over their last 14 games and just swept the Cubs in a four-game series on the road. Meanwhile, the Rockies are 4-10 over their last 14 games and just got swept by the Guardians at home. In tonight's series opener, San Diego hands the ball to rookie lefty Mackenzie Gore (4-2, 2.50 ERA) and the Rockies counter with veteran southpaw Kyle Freeland (2-5, 4.39 ERA). This line opened with the Padres listed as a -145 road favorite and the Rockies a +125 home dog. Pros aren't outsmarting themselves on this one. They're riding the better, hotter team, steaming San Diego up from -145 to -155. Road favorites are 220-125 (64%) this season. San Diego has the far better pitching staff, sporting a team ERA of 3.32 compared to Colorado's 5.01. The Padres are 26-15 as favorites, 24-11 on the road and 16-6 against lefties. The Rockies are 18-30 as dogs, 16-19 at home and 10-12 against lefties. San Diego is +74 in run differential. Colorado is -69. 
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