Friday MLB Sharp Report

alcantara

For an updated breakdown of Friday's betting action, be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 3 p.m. ET. I'll also be joining The Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET and then co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET. 

In the meantime, let's dive into a trio of MLB games receiving sharp action today...

 

6:40 p.m. ET: New York Mets (61-37) at Miami Marlins (47-52)

The Mets are coming off a two-game sweep over the Yankees and currently sit in first place in the NL East, leading the second-place Braves by 3 games. Meanwhile, the Marlins just split a four-game set at the Reds and remain within striking distance for the NL Wild card (5 games back). In tonight's series opener, New York hands the ball to righty Chris Bassitt (7-7, 3.72 ERA) and Miami counters with ace righty Sandy Alcantara (9-4, 1.81 ERA). This line opened with the Mets listed as a -145 road favorite and the Marlins a +130 home dog. Sharps have jumped on the Fish getting plus money with their ace on the bump, dropping the Marlins from +130 to +115. Miami has value as a divisional dog with a reverse line move in their favor. Alcantara has a 1.24 ERA in five July starts. He is the favorite to win the NL Cy Young at -175. These teams met back on July 10th and Alcantara led the Marlins to a 2-0 win over the Mets in New York. 

 

7:10 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Brewers (55-44) at Boston Red Sox (50-50) 

The Brewers have gotten off to a red-hot 5-1 start since the All Star Break and just swept a brief two game set at home against the Twins. On the other hand, the Red Sox are just 2-5 since the break, although Boston just split a four game series at home against the Guardians. In tonight's Interleague series opener, the Brewers hand the ball to righty Brandon Woodruff (8-3, 3.73 ERA) and the Red Sox turn to rookie righty Brayan Bello (0-2, 10.50 ERA). This line opened with Milwaukee listed as a -145 road favorite and Boston a +130 home dog. Sharps aren't outsmarting themselves on this one. They've laid the chalk with the Brewers, steaming Milwaukee up from -145 to -155. Non-division road favorites are 170-106 (62%) this season. Milwaukee also enjoys a rest advantage, having been off yesterday while the Red Sox played Cleveland. Favorites off a day off against teams who played the previous day are 258-162 (61%) since 2018. Woodruff has a 2.28 ERA in four July starts. Bello has given up four our more runs in all three of his starts thus far. The Red Sox are 0-3 in Bello's starts. 

 

8:40 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Dodgers (66-32) at Colorado Rockies (45-55)

The Dodgers crushed the Rockies 13-0 in last night's series opener, cruising as -220 road favorites. In tonight's rematch, Los Angeles taps lefty Julio Urias (9-6, 2.72 ERA) and Colorado sends out righty Chad Kuhl (6-5, 4.48 ERA). This line opened with the Dodgers listed as a -200 road favorite and the Rockies a +185 home dog. Pros aren't scared off by the big chalk and are backing the Dodgers once again, steaming Los Angeles up from -200 to -220. Road favorites who made the playoffs the previous season against teams who did not are 169-99 (63%). The Dodgers are 44-21 against righties. 65-31 as a favorite and 31-17 on the road. Los Angeles is 7-0 in Urias' last seven starts. Kuhl has gotten lit up in the month of July, posting an ERA of 9.00 in four starts. 

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