Friday MLB Sharp Report


For an in-depth analysis of Friday's betting action, be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 3 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET.

 In the meantime, let's discuss a trio of MLB games receiving sharp action on Friday...


7:10 p.m. ET: Atlanta Braves (63-43) at New York Mets (67-38)

The Mets took Thursday's night's series opener 6-4, cashing as -120 home favorites. In tonight's rematch, Atlanta hands the ball to righty Ian Anderson (9-6, 4.99 ERA) and New York counters with fellow righty Taijuan Walker (9-2, 2.79 ERA). This line opened with the Mets listed as a slight -115 home favorite and the Braves a +105 road dog. Sharps have laid the short chalk with New York, steaming the Mets up from -115 to -130. New York is 52-23 as a favorite, 32-17 at home and 45-23 against righties. The Mets hold the edge at the plate (hitting .257 vs .249) and on the mound (team ERA 3.56 vs 3.59). New York leads the season series 5-3. The Mets are 7-2 in Walker's last nine starts. The Mets lead the Braves by 3.5 games in the NL East. New York is 9-3 since the All Star Break. 


8:05 p.m. ET: Chicago White Sox (53-52) at Texas Rangers (47-58)

The Rangers took last night's series opener 3-2, cashing as +135 home dogs. In tonight's rematch, Chicago sends out righty Dylan Cease (11-4, 2.01 ERA) and Texas turns to fellow righty Glenn Otto (4-7, 5.50 ERA). This line opened with the White Sox listed as a -155 road favorite and the Rangers a +140 home dog. Sharps have pounced on Chicago in a bounce-back spot with their ace on the mound, steaming the White Sox up from -155 to -170. Non-division road favorites are 181-110 (62%) this season. Favorites who made the playoffs last year against teams who did not are 402-232 (63%). Chicago has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8). Chicago will lean on their bats, hitting .258 compared to .240 for Texas. Cease posted a 0.76 ERA in six July starts. Chicago is 10-2 in Cease's last 12 starts. Otto posted a 5.76 ERA in six July starts. The Rangers are 0-7 in Otto's last seven starts. 


8:10 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Reds (42-62) at Milwaukee Brewers (57-48)

This is the opener of a three-game set between a pair of NL Central rivals. The Reds just fell to the Marlins 3-0 on Wednesday, which snapped a four-game win streak for Cincinnati. Meanwhile, the Brewers have lost four straight and just got swept on the road at the Pirates. In tonight's series opener, Cincinnati starts righty Robert Dugger (0-0, 4.05 ERA) and Milwaukee taps lefty Eric Lauer (7-3, 3.75 ERA). This line opened with the Brewers listed as a -190 home favorite and the Reds a +175 road dog. Pros aren't scared off by the expensive chalk and have steamed Milwaukee up from -190 to -215. Favorites off a loss who made the playoffs the previous year are 204-112 (65%) this season. Home favorites -200 or more are 169-71 (70%). Milwaukee is 47-36 as a favorite, 26-20 at home and 41-32 against righties. Cincinnati is 31-48 as a dog, 18-30 on the road and 13-19 against lefties. The Brewers lead the season series 7-2. Lauer has a 2.96 ERA in five July starts. Both teams are hitting .241. The difference comes on the mound, where Milwaukee sports a 3.89 ERA vs 5.01 for Cincinnati. 

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